Oklahoma Winter Weather 2014-2015

[jporterOCCC]

Whos ready for winter weather?

[TwisterFanatic]

How bout that freeze on Halloween night? Low to mid 20's pretty much state wide. GFS and EURO showing another big cold shot coming, perhaps longer lasting and stronger about 9-10 days out.

[TwisterFanatic]

GFS and ECMWF are coming in line for a VERY cold airmass to arrive during the day Tuesday. It'll be cool all week with high's in the mid-high 50's and lows close to freezing, but the GFS and ECMWF both showing the impending front bringing high's struggling to get above freezing, an extremely cold airmass for this time of year.

[somethingfunny]

If you guys want to join us in the Texas thread I think we'd help yall feel welcomed, though we might get jealous when you get snow and we don't

[TwisterFanatic]

Interesting developments in the 12z GFS and ECMWF.. both showing snow for Oklahoma by day 9-10.

[Ralph's Weather]

Interesting developments in the 12z GFS and ECMWF.. both showing snow for Oklahoma by day 9-10.

It sure is beginning to look like we will see a Southern Plains snow storm around then.

[TwisterFanatic]

ECMWF is dropping 3-5 inches across much of Oklahoma starting Friday night/Saturday. GFS is fighting it.

[TwisterFanatic]

ECMWF still showing a decent little storm, especially for mid November, 1-3 inches I-40 and north.

GFS is showing 1-4 inches along the KS/OK border

the Parallel GFS is showing a significant snow storm for much of Oklahoma.

I'm thinking the ECMWF is closer to right.

[Meteorcane]

looking like Mid-Late Sunday is our best shot to see snow (probably not much accumulation but maybe 1-2 inches in some spots).

[Meteorcane]

Snowing pretty good now here in Norman, initially some ice pellets mixed in, but now all snow.

[Meteorcane]

Very solid snow for this Mid-November today ~1.5 inches thus far, with some nice large dendritic aggregates in some of the heavier squalls.

[TwisterFanatic]

1.25 inches here in East Central Ok, still falling lightly. Heaviest band set up much further south than anticipated.

[Meteorcane]

Picture from the National Weather Center today, when all was said and done we ended up with between 2-3 inches, a pleasant surprise this early

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Heads up FELLOWS! My pets are at my back door! The time for you to be skeered NEARS!!!! Sing Loud boys......I'm thinking of you!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcDLcQk ... freload=10

Now boys when a Low is formed here IN Saskatchewan I expect you to....

BE SURE TO CALL OUT *MY* NAME!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBV4gmw ... ZCVR-cdQzg

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like there could be some light icing across Oklahoma and adjacent areas of North Texas and Arkansas behind the front from moisture overrunning the shallow cold air.

[TwisterFanatic]

Interesting forecast for Eastern Oklahoma for Tuesday/Tuesday Night.

Weather service is saying a wide area of possibilities from a rain/snow mix with no accumulation, to several inches of snow by Tuesday night.

[TwisterFanatic]

Surprise!! for some Oklahoma people today. Along I-44 got several unexpected inches.

[BlueIce]

Good discussion from the OUN office about the upcoming cold snap and ice storm potential. Been watching the Texas thread as that is where most of the activity seems to be centered but we are going to be the canary in the coal mine.

FXUS64 KOUN 291134
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
534 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING
BREEZY NORTH WINDS BEHIND IT. MVFR CEILINGS MAY MOVE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AROUND NOON...BUT BAND IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY NARROW SO
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL AFFECT KOKC AND KOUN. LATE TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING MAY SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE MVFR RANGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM CST MON DEC 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT/WINTER STORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
SHORTLY.

OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WITH SEVERAL EPISODES OF
IMPACTING WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
MID-LATE WEEK AND WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FIRST ORDER WILL
BE INTRUSION OF ARCTIC AIR AND LOW WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COLDEST READINGS...TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT LEAST NORTHWEST HALF OF
OKLAHOMA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT. ALSO...LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN
OKLAHOMA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH UPSLOPE EVENT EXPECTED TO
UNFOLD BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT. AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SUBZERO WIND CHILLS AND SCATTERED SNOW ACROSS
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...ATTENTION WILL TURN TOWARD THURSDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY AS FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET EVENT UNFOLDS. WE AGREE
MOST STRONGLY WITH PARALLEL-GFS (P-GFS) AND ECM WITH OVERALL ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND. FOR THE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY SCENARIO...OPERATIONAL GFS APPEARS TO ERODE BOUNDARY
LAYER COLD AIR MUCH TOO QUICKLY. ECM/P-GFS DRIER AND SLOWER TO
ERODE COLD AIR WITH WEAK WINDS AND PERSISTENT E/W LOW LEVEL RIDGE
ENTRENCHED OVER REGION. THEY MAY BE TOO FAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
STILL POINT TO DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE OF SLEET WITH RAIN AND
FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES. SNOW APPEARS TO BE A NON-ISSUE DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS WHICH
IS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST PARTS OF OKLAHOMA. OVERALL...
THE ECM AND P-GFS WHICH WE ARE BASING FORECAST ON HAS MUCH LOWER
QPF THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...TEMPS SHOULD
WARM JUST ENOUGH FOR RAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS AND AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF OKLAHOMA. SOME LIGHT SLEET OR
FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

AS UPPER SYSTEM PULLS OUT SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY BE IN WARM SECTOR AND MAINLY LIQUID. TRACK OF UPPER LOW
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT P-GFS IS A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH ECM...AND THE FASTER FARTHER NORTH
GFS. MOD-HEAVY SNOW CHANCES ON NORTH/WEST PERIPHERY OF MID LEVEL
CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND AREAS
NORTH.

ANOTHER SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR LOOKS LIKELY AFTER THIS STORM SYSTEM
SHIFTS EAST. GFS AND P-GFS MUCH COLDER THAN ECM WITH THIS PART OF
THE FORECAST BEYOND THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 43 23 31 13 / 0 10 10 10
HOBART OK 44 21 29 11 / 0 0 20 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 53 26 36 17 / 0 10 10 10
GAGE OK 37 12 18 3 / 0 20 30 30
PONCA CITY OK 40 19 25 5 / 0 10 10 10
DURANT OK 43 29 43 23 / 0 10 0 0

&&