Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Bizzles
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:22 am
Location: Columbus, NJ

Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#1 Postby Bizzles » Wed Oct 01, 2014 9:24 am

All things cold and snowy!

Area forecast has LOW 40s for the weekend, no word on frost yet.
0 likes   
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Bizzles
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:22 am
Location: Columbus, NJ

#2 Postby Bizzles » Mon Oct 13, 2014 8:08 am

0 likes   
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
angelwing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4462
Age: 57
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
Location: Kulpsville, PA

Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#3 Postby angelwing » Mon Oct 13, 2014 9:52 am

Occaisional big storms...well hubby fixed the snowblower, I have a generator but still cant get the heat fixed in the van, no one can figure it out....guess its many blankets again, lol!

Bring it on!
0 likes   
Agnes 72, Gloria 85, Floyd 99, Irene 2011, TS Lee 2012, Sandy 2012

User avatar
angelwing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4462
Age: 57
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
Location: Kulpsville, PA

Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#4 Postby angelwing » Wed Oct 15, 2014 1:53 pm

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MD INTO SERN PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 151720Z - 151945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH STORMS AS THEY DEVELOP NWD FROM MD INTO SERN PA.

DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED STRONG CELL WITH SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NWD ALONG A N-S ORIENTED BOUNDARY
WHICH EXTENDS INTO PA AND LINKS WITH AN EXISTING FRONT ACROSS ERN PA
WHICH CURRENTLY SEPARATES THE MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SE.

THIS PARTICULAR STORM HAS HAD A PERSISTENT AND BROAD CIRCULATION
WITH IT...BUT NOTHING PARTICULARLY STRONG OR TIGHT PROBABLY DUE TO
WEAK LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/ACCELERATION. WHILE DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS
STRONG ABOVE THE GROUND...MOST OF THE SHEAR IS RELEGATED TO THE
NEAR-SURFACE LAYER AND OTHER CELLS AWAY FROM THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAVE SHOWN LITTLE IF ANY SHEAR. THEREFORE...ANY WIND/TOR THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF...SHORT-LIVED AND ISOLATED...AND A WATCH IS NOT
EXPECTED.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 10/15/2014


ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 39157664 39007677 38987688 39067699 39267696 39617690
40007679 40347640 40457615 40407593 40137594 39617620
39157664
0 likes   
Agnes 72, Gloria 85, Floyd 99, Irene 2011, TS Lee 2012, Sandy 2012

User avatar
Bizzles
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:22 am
Location: Columbus, NJ

#5 Postby Bizzles » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:01 am

Yesterday Morning's official # for my area:

32F 29Dew

It counts!
0 likes   
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6743
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#6 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:05 am

Is that the first freeze officially of the season for you? :uarrow:
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
Bizzles
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:22 am
Location: Columbus, NJ

#7 Postby Bizzles » Tue Oct 21, 2014 11:55 am

Yup!
0 likes   
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6743
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#8 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 21, 2014 12:00 pm

Still about 4 weeks away here on average of seeing our first freeze of the season here .
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Spring Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
Bizzles
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:22 am
Location: Columbus, NJ

#9 Postby Bizzles » Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:12 am

000
FXUS61 KPHI 291253
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.


WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

LONG TERM...ROBERTSON



Small chance for the 1st snow flakes of the season in the area!
0 likes   
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
angelwing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4462
Age: 57
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
Location: Kulpsville, PA

Re:

#10 Postby angelwing » Wed Oct 29, 2014 8:30 am

Bizzles wrote:000
SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.[/b]



I like this :D :D :D
0 likes   
Agnes 72, Gloria 85, Floyd 99, Irene 2011, TS Lee 2012, Sandy 2012

User avatar
Bizzles
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:22 am
Location: Columbus, NJ

Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#11 Postby Bizzles » Fri Oct 31, 2014 7:57 am

No go for my area :(

TEMPS...IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES BY
SUNDAY SHOULD BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE COLDEST
WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. STILL EXPECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION TO
BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED BY
THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE FALL FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM ENDS NOV. 1 AS
WE ARE PAST THE MEAN FIRST FREEZE DATE.

PRECIP...MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT OF THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP, WHICH WILL MAINLY BE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALL OF THE
REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING, SO PRECIP TYPE IS
EXPECTED TO BE RAIN. FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE MELTING LAYER
THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR ABOVE 4000 FT AGL.
WITH SUCH A DEEP WARM LAYER, EVEN FLURRIES ARE VERY UNLIKELY.
0 likes   
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Bizzles
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:22 am
Location: Columbus, NJ

Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#12 Postby Bizzles » Wed Nov 12, 2014 9:06 am

000
FXUS61 KPHI 121124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 AM EST WED NOV 12 2014

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD IS PRETTY
GOOD...THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY/MONDAY, THEREAFTER THE PROGRESSION OF
THE ENSUING SYSTEMS DIFFERS...LESS CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE SPREAD. MOST
CONFIDENT PART OF THE FORECAST IS IN REGARDS TO THE AMOUNT OF COLD
AIR LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD...EXPECTING
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN NORMAL.

THURSDAY - FRIDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. A SECONDARY, MORE POTENT COLD AIR SHOT, COLD FRONT LOOKS
PROGGED FOR LATER IN THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME OVER RUNNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WELL
AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD SEE THE
MOST ACTION AS THE FRONT BARRELS THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERMAL
PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW NORTHWEST AND MOSTLY RAIN FROM
PHILLY SOUTH AND EAST....CHANGEOVER POSSIBLE BY MID FRIDAY MORNING
IF ANY QPF REMAINS. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST FLAKES OF THE SEASON FOR
A LOT OF LOCATIONS. LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEEING ACCUMULATIONS AT
THIS POINT.


TEMPERATURE WISE, WENT WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE HIGHS ON
THURSDAY, JUST AHEAD OF THE BEST CAA ACTION, AND THEN A STRAIGHT
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV ON FRIDAY ONCE WE GET INTO THE COLDER
AIRMASS...MODELS ARE DOING PRETTY WELL BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE SHOULD
KEEP A CAP ON THE REGION. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID-40S.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE WEAK RIDGING BREAK DOWN AND
MOVE OFFSHORE. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW COMMENCES, THOUGH NOT EXPECTING
A GREAT DEAL OF AIRMASS MODIFICATION WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
40S...DEWPOINTS INCREASE. THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH LATER ON SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THERMALLY WE LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR A MOSTLY OVER-RUNNING RAIN THOUGH
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH OF A COLD BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
A SNOW OR MIXTURE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A GULF
COAST LOW THAT RIDES ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
CLOSE TO OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS OF NOW THERE IS NO
PHASING OF THE TWO UPPER LEVEL BRANCHES, THOUGH IT IS CLOSE, AS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM IS FASTER AND TIED TO THE GREATER JET MAX ALOFT. IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY TO SPEED UP IF ITS PARENT
TROUGH REMAINS MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE, THEN IT WOULDN`T BE AS STRONG
EITHER. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER LARGE WITH THE TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW AND STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SO WE KEEP
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ADD IN SOME WPC GUIDANCE.
PTYPE WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT...SNOWIER INLAND, RAINIER
TOWARDS THE COAST.


&&

$$

LONG TERM...HEAVENER



Looks like two shots at some snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :froze:
0 likes   
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
angelwing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4462
Age: 57
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
Location: Kulpsville, PA

Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#13 Postby angelwing » Wed Nov 12, 2014 10:12 am

Bring it on! :D
0 likes   
Agnes 72, Gloria 85, Floyd 99, Irene 2011, TS Lee 2012, Sandy 2012

User avatar
Bizzles
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:22 am
Location: Columbus, NJ

#14 Postby Bizzles » Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:31 am

This morning's update:

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT PCPN ANTICIPATED AS A 140 MB HFC DEVELOPS OVER E PA
BY FRIDAY MORNING. VERY NICE FGEN THIS EVENING AND BOTH THE 00Z
AND 06Z/13 OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE ABOUT 17MBAR/SEC SNOW GROWTH MODELED
OVER NE NJ BY 06Z FRI (550MB). THE NAM IS LESS ROBUST.

NOTICING ALSO DECENT SNOW GROWTH ELSEWHERE I95 REGION NEAR 04-06Z
DESPITE DRYING IN THE LOW LVLS AS NW WINDS INCREASE. COULD SEE BRIEF
1 MI LIGHT SNOW ALL ALONG I95 CORRIDOR FOR AN HOUR SO IN THE 10PM
TO 2 AM TIME FRAME.

LOOKING AT MAX WBZ UNDER 2C IN THE 0-6KM LAYER AND BL LESS THAN
0C IN LOWEST 750 FT...WE SHOULD SEE RAIN CHANGE TO SNOW NW OF I95
THIS EVENING AND THE QUESTION HOW QUICKLY DOES IT START STICKING...
PROBABLY A MATTER OF ELEVATION AND TO SOME DEGREE INTENSITY. ITS
CERTAINLY APPEARING TO BE SPS MATERIAL BUT NOT AN ADVY NW OF I95.

I95 ITSELF...COULD END UP WITH A SKIFF OF SNOW ON THE GRASS IN SOME
PLACES AS RAIN ENDS AS SNOW.

PRIMARY PCPN EVENT IS 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM FRIDAY.

CLEARING TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY IN E PA AS WELL AS STIFFENING CAA SHOULD
PERMIT SOME ICY SPOTS TO LINGER ON UNTREATED SFC TOMORROW MORNING
FROM NW NJ THRU E PA (MAINLY WEST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR).

THE 330 AND 630 AM FORECAST INCLUDING SNOW MAP I THINK IS CONSERVATIVE
AND I COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM .1 TO .5 ADDITIONAL TO THE TOTALS POSTED
EARLY TODAY. I JUST DIDNT WANT TO FORCE THE TOOLS ANY FURTHER. ITS POSSIBLE
I DID NOT COOL THE SFC TEMPS FAST ENOUGH THIS EVENING IN E PA AND
NW NJ WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW TOTAL.

POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD BY 20 PCT IN DELAWARE FOR THIS 630 AM
ESTF.


&&

SHORT TERM...DRAG 602
0 likes   
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Bizzles
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:22 am
Location: Columbus, NJ

#15 Postby Bizzles » Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:32 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ012-013-015>019-PAZ070-071-106-140915-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
LOWER BUCKS-
401 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE MAY BE A VERY SLIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW ON GRASSY AREAS
AND CARS LATER TONIGHT.

SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITH A COUPLE
OF DEGREES OF FREEZING. THIS WILL PERMIT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE
FROM TONIGHT`S LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT TO FORM PATCHES OF ICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
0 likes   
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
angelwing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4462
Age: 57
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
Location: Kulpsville, PA

Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#16 Postby angelwing » Thu Nov 13, 2014 10:46 am

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>105-140915-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
401 AM EST THU NOV 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A PERIOD OF SNOW IS FORECAST EARLY TONIGHT WITH WILL PROBABLY
ACCUMULATE BETWEEN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR SO.


MOST OF THE 1 INCH AMOUNTS SHOULD OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW IS BETWEEN 8 PM AND 1 AM.

SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MORNING AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S.
THIS WILL PERMIT ANY REMAINING MOISTURE FROM TONIGHT`S LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT TO FORM PATCHES OF ICE...WHERE SURFACES ARE
UNTREATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
0 likes   
Agnes 72, Gloria 85, Floyd 99, Irene 2011, TS Lee 2012, Sandy 2012

User avatar
Bizzles
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:22 am
Location: Columbus, NJ

#17 Postby Bizzles » Thu Nov 13, 2014 8:55 pm

I have confirmed SNOWFLAKES!!! Just changed over in front of my eyes 8:55ish pm EST Central NJ
0 likes   
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
angelwing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4462
Age: 57
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
Location: Kulpsville, PA

Re:

#18 Postby angelwing » Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:16 pm

Bizzles wrote:I have confirmed SNOWFLAKES!!! Just changed over in front of my eyes 8:55ish pm EST Central NJ



Cool! We have a white lawn here :D ANd it is still snowing-11:15PM SEPA
0 likes   
Agnes 72, Gloria 85, Floyd 99, Irene 2011, TS Lee 2012, Sandy 2012

User avatar
angelwing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4462
Age: 57
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
Location: Kulpsville, PA

Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#19 Postby angelwing » Mon Nov 17, 2014 1:58 pm

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: November 17, 2014

Code Blue Cold Weather Declaration

Norristown, PA (November 17, 2014) The Montgomery County Commissioners, on the advice of the Montgomery County Department of Public Safety, have declared a Code Blue Cold Weather Emergency for Montgomery County based on a review of forecasts from the National Weather Service.

The Code Blue Declaration has been issued for Montgomery County for the period beginning at 9:00PM on Monday, November 17, 2014 until 9:00AM on Wednesday, November 19, 2014.

A Code Blue Cold Weather Declaration is made in Montgomery County when winter conditions pose a threat of serious harm or death to individuals without shelter. A Code Blue is called when the combination of air temperature and wind chill is anticipated to be 20 F or less.
0 likes   
Agnes 72, Gloria 85, Floyd 99, Irene 2011, TS Lee 2012, Sandy 2012

User avatar
angelwing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4462
Age: 57
Joined: Tue Jan 18, 2005 3:06 pm
Location: Kulpsville, PA

Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#20 Postby angelwing » Mon Nov 17, 2014 2:54 pm

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014

NJC005-007-015-019-021-PAC017-029-045-091-101-172315-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.Y.0383.141117T1916Z-141117T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
CAMDEN NJ-HUNTERDON NJ-MERCER NJ-BUCKS PA-MONTGOMERY PA-
PHILADELPHIA PA-DELAWARE PA-GLOUCESTER NJ-CHESTER PA-BURLINGTON NJ-
216 PM EST MON NOV 17 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHERN HUNTERDON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...
MERCER COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...
SOUTHERN BUCKS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
PHILADELPHIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
DELAWARE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN GLOUCESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
EAST CENTRAL CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

* UNTIL 615 PM EST

* AT 213 PM EST MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS
RAIN...COMBINED WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN FROM AN EARLIER LINE OF
SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND RAPID
RISES ON SMALL STREAMS. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO ONE HALF
INCH ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

&&

LAT...LON 3968 7518 3997 7574 4054 7493 4025 7454

$$

SFJ
0 likes   
Agnes 72, Gloria 85, Floyd 99, Irene 2011, TS Lee 2012, Sandy 2012


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests