Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

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gatorcane
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#21 Postby gatorcane » Sat Nov 22, 2014 10:42 pm

Looks like a possible Snow storm developing this week which could impact alot of the mid-Atlantic. Surprised there is not more attention being given to this considering the storm may impact millions on Wed., which is the biggest travel day of the year.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly snippet:

WEDNESDAY...A COASTAL STORM IS LIKELY. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
PRETTY STABLE THESE PAST TWO CYCLES AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
FURTHEST WEST WITH THIS OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS MOVED WEST WITH THE TRACK. NO LOCK ON THE
TRACK SINCE SHORT WAVE INTERACTIONS SHOW VARIABILITY IN THE
ENSEMBLES. STILL...IT LOOKS AS IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP IS GOING
TO GOVERN WHERE ITS MOSTLY SNOW. DAYTIME TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.

ADVISE ALL WITH TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN OUR
FORECAST AREA TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS. THIS COULD BECOME
A SNOW STORM FOR PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH PLOWABLE SNOW
AND NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES....ESPECIALLY THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THAT WOULD MEAN A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL AND ONE
OF THE BUSIEST AIR TRAVEL DAYS OF THE YEAR.


http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... hlight=off
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#22 Postby angelwing » Sat Nov 22, 2014 11:19 pm

Better if it did this on Black Friday :lol:
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#23 Postby Bizzles » Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:18 am

angelwing wrote:Better if it did this on Black Friday :lol:


Could you imagine all those crazy people in the snow? bahaha
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#24 Postby Bizzles » Mon Nov 24, 2014 8:21 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ010-012-015>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-250830-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
325 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW AT TIMES WEDNESDAY OR EVEN CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. IF YOU HAVE
TRAVEL PLANS FOR WEDNESDAY, PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#25 Postby angelwing » Tue Nov 25, 2014 8:47 am

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

NJZ010-015-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-252100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0010.141126T1600Z-141127T0600Z/
SOMERSET-MERCER-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERVILLE...TRENTON...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
406 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* LOCATIONS...NEARER THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NEW JERSEY THROUGH PHILADELPHIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN NEAR DAWN WEDNESDAY
THEN EVENTUALLY CHANGE TO WET SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. IT MAY SNOW HEAVY FOR A TIME BEFORE SNOW ENDS DURING
THE EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE NON PAVED
SURFACES DUE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ANYONE WITH HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS WEDNESDAY SHOULD
COMPLETE TRAVEL BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY TO AVOID ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED DELAYS. WET SNOW MAY COVER ROAD
SIGNS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE WET SNOW COULD KNOCK DOWN A FEW
TREE LIMBS IF IT ACCUMULATES MORE THAN 4 INCHES ON BRANCHES AND
WIRES. THIS COULD RESULT IN A FEW POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&
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#26 Postby Bizzles » Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:50 am

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ013-016>020-270915-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-
403 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. FOR THE
REGION ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95, PRECIPITATION
WILL BEGIN AS RAIN, THEN BEGIN MIXING WITH SNOW BY LATE MORNING,
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SLUSHY AND SLICK ROADWAYS.

IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FOR WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA OR NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY...THAT TRAVEL SHOULD BE
COMPLETED BY MID MORNING TODAY TO AVOID ANY WEATHER RELATED DELAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
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#27 Postby Bizzles » Wed Nov 26, 2014 8:52 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

NJZ012-015-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-270915-
MIDDLESEX-MERCER-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
403 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
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#28 Postby Bizzles » Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:48 am

Just had a good 20 min of snow mixed in, has since switched back over to just rain. Getting closer!

-Hightstown, NJ
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#29 Postby angelwing » Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:50 am

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0728 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN VA / ERN AND NERN WV / S-CNTRL PA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 261328Z - 261730Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED THIS
MORNING. THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES WILL INITIAL BE CONFINED TO
LOCALIZED AREAS BUT WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD TOWARDS THE MID-LATE
MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...13Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE 32 DEG F ISOTHERM
INVOF THE VA/WV BORDER NEAR AND W OF THE SHENANDOAH VALLEY NEWD INTO
WRN MD AND S-CNTRL PA. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE AREA AOB
FREEZING BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD WITH TIME AS HEAVIER PRECIP RATES
AND WET-BULB COOLING CONTRIBUTE TO COOLING PROCESSES NEAR THE
SURFACE. THE 12Z RNK RAOB SHOWED THE TEMP PROFILE NEAR OR BELOW 0
DEG C FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE...SUPPORTIVE OF
SNOW P-TYPE. FARTHER NE...THE 12Z IAD RAOB SHOWED A TEMP PROFILE
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE SURFACE-1 KM LAYER.

MODELS INDICATE H7-H5 UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TO MAXIMIZE OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 16Z WITH A SHIFT NWD NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE AFTER 16Z. MODELS SHOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /-12 TO -17 DEG C/ TO OVERLAP WITH STRONG
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR HEAVIER PRECIP
RATES. A FURTHER EXPANSION IN AREA OF NEAR-SURFACE TEMPS AOB 32 DEG
WILL FAVOR SNOW BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES
WILL BECOME MORE COMMON THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.

..SMITH.. 11/26/2014


ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 40337868 40647810 40717761 40437742 40047762 39307833
38627904 37168024 37148068 37318084 39527941 40337868
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#30 Postby angelwing » Wed Nov 26, 2014 10:51 am

Short Term Forecast
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1022 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-NJZ012-013-015>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-
261630-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
1022 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.NOW...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE. SOME SNOW OR
SLEET MAY MIX IN AS WELL. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S NOW ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 MPH WILL CONTINUE AS WELL. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO USE
CAUTION AND BE ALERT FOR CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND ROADWAY
CONDITIONS.

$$
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SaskatchewanScreamer

#31 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Thu Nov 27, 2014 11:12 pm

2
Last edited by SaskatchewanScreamer on Thu Nov 27, 2014 11:45 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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SaskatchewanScreamer

#32 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Thu Nov 27, 2014 11:17 pm

Heads up FELLOWS! My pets are at my backdoor! The time for you to be skeered NEARS!!!! Sing Loud boys......I'm thinking of you!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcDLcQk ... freload=10

Now boys when a Low is formed here IN Saskatchewan I expect you to....

BE SURE TO CALL OUT *MY* NAME!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBV4gmw ... ZCVR-cdQzg
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#33 Postby angelwing » Tue Dec 02, 2014 12:15 pm

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
420 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ009-010-012>020-025-026-PAZ070-071-101>106-030930-
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
420 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SLEET AND EVEN SOME SNOW IS LIKELY TODAY.
ANY ACCUMULATIONS THOUGH SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AND NON PAVED SURFACES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
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#34 Postby Bizzles » Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:52 am

000
FXUS61 KPHI 081114
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
614 AM EST MON DEC 8 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. LOW PRESSURE FORMING EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG NOR`EASTER...ARRIVING NEAR LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY EVENING. IT VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS AND MEANDERS NORTHEASTWARD
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRY
TO BECOME THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE HERE THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE MOVES AWAY TODAY AND LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF
THE SE COAST LATER TODAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS TODAY
BRINGING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT AFTERNOON PRECIP TO THE SRN
AREAS. MODELS ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH QPF...SO ITS ONE OF THOSE
DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN SITUATIONS. WE HAVE CHC POPS ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND SE NJ WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS OVER THE DEL VALLEY AND INTO
THE LEHIGH VALLEY. SEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH MOSTLY 40 TO 45 S/E
AND MID TO UPPER 30S N/W. E/NE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH INLAND AND
15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE LOW DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT. THE DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA
EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN NRN AREAS BY DAWN TUE. P-TYPE IS MOSTLY RAIN
EXCEPT ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS/BERKS COUNTY AND NRN NJ WHERE SLEET
AND SNOW WILL OCCUR. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF FROZEN PRECIP WITH MODERATE
CONFID IN TOTALS. THIS WILL BE BLENDED IN WITH THE LONG TERM EVENT
AND A WSW WARNING WILL BE STARTED TONIGHT FOR THE SRN POCONOS. THERE
IS LESS CONFID IN ANY TOTALS/HAZARDS SURROUNDING THIS AND ITS
POSSIBLE AN ADV MAY BE NEEDED FOR OTHER SURROUNDING AREAS LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**MULTI HAZARD NOR`EASTER TUESDAY THAT WILL FORCE DELAYS**

THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION AND THE FORECAST CONCENTRATES SOLELY ON THE
PERIODS 12Z/9 TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z/12 FRIDAY WITH WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE
THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

MULTI IMPACTS ARE SOMEWHAT MORE COMPLEX THAN USUAL WITH STILL SOME
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPACTS.


TUESDAY...STORMY. PWAT 1 TO 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL. ESE INFLOW AT 850 MB
ABOUT 4 TO 5 SD ABOVE NORMAL. WEAKENING 700 MB STEERING WINDS AND
EVENTUAL FORMATION OF A 700MB LOW OVER NJ KEEPS THE DRY SLOT OVER
EASTERN NJ AND BANDING TO THE WEST OVER THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND
WESTWARD.

SNOW: THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED COLDER AND THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE
MUCH LESS CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE POCONOS AND WORRIED
ABOUT THE TIER OF COUNTIES JUST TO THE EAST FROM ELEVATIONS OF
BERKS COUNTY ( N OF KRDG LATITUDE) NEWD THROUGH THE HIGH TERRAIN
OF WARREN AND SUSSEX COUNTIES.

THE SNOW MAP YOU SEE POSTED IS NOT SET IN STONE... BUT WE THOUGHT
IT BEST TO WARN NOW TO PREPARE FOR A POTENTIAL SUBSTANTIAL PROBLEM
OF WET SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CONSIDERABLE POWER OUTAGES IN THE POCONOS
TUESDAY WITH WITH BANDS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ADDING ON TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY SNOW EVENT SHOULD BE TUESDAY FROM
AROUND 4 OR 5 AM THROUGH 8 PM TUESDAY EVENING.

SUSPECT WE WILL NEED TO AT LEAST ADVISE THE COUNTIES JUST TO THE
EAST IN OUR AFTERNOON FORECAST....BASICALLY SUSSEX COUNTY
SOUTHWESTWARD TO POSSIBLY BERKS COUNTY.

HYDRO: WE DID NOT USE THE 00Z/8 NAM TONIGHT. THIS FORECAST WAS A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND SO LESS RAINFALL BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT.
WE SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A FLOOD WATCH IN A LATER FORECAST
ISSUANCE, AFTER CAREFUL REVIEW OF LATER MODEL GUIDANCE. POCKETS OF
SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS NOT AN AUTOMATIC THOUGH WIDESPREAD W.E.
PCPN SHOULD BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE...MOST OF IT DURING THE
PERIOD 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. SIX HOUR FFG IS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. MMEFS VIA THE SREF PROJECTS A NUMBER OF
GAGED RIVERS IN NJ TO POSSIBLY FLOOD (MINOR OR MODERATE) LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SREF MAY BE A BIASED A LITTLE HIGH.

SOME OF THE BASINS AND RIVERS WITH 12 HOUR HEADWATER GUIDANCE AT
OR BELOW 2.2 INCHES AND WHICH MIGHT EVENTUALLY NEED ACTION ARE:
PORTIONS OF THE RARITAN BASIN...THE MILLSTONE... THE ASSUNPINK
CREEK... THE WHIPPANY RIVER... THE PERKIOMEN...THE NESHAMINY...THE
CHESTER CREEK...THE EAST BRANCH OF THE BRANDYWINE......THE
BRANDYWINE CREEK...THE CHRISTINA AND THE WHITE CLAY CREEK. AGAIN
NOT A LOCK TO FLOOD.

OTHERWISE A WIND SWEPT DRENCHING RAIN IN THE MORNING - MIDDAY HOURS
WILL HAMPER TRAVEL. POOR DRAINAGE STREET FLOODING.

WIND: MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR NJ AND DE...ESPECIALLY THE COAST.
NO ACTION ATTM. TOO UNCERTAIN BUT OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES IN NJ
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST FAVORED FOR ANY ADVISORY WIND GUSTS.

COASTAL FLOODING: WE HAVE A WATCH POSTED FOR MODERATE FLOOD
POTENTIAL TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD BE A HIGHER STORM TIDE THAN THAT
WHICH OCCURS THIS MORNING...DESPITE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE BEING SLIGHTLY
LOWER (ABOUT 0.2 FEET). THIS MODERATE FLOOD CONCERN IS PROMPTED
BY THE EXPECTATION OF A MORE EASTERLY AND STRONGER WIND THAN THAT
OF THIS MORNING COMBINED WITH PRESSURE ABOUT 20 TO 25 MB (.7 INCHES
ON THE BAROMETER) LOWER THAN THAT OF TODAY...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POSITIVE SURGE ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COASTS OF NJ AND DE.




TUESDAY NIGHT...BANDED HEAVIER PCPN...PROBABLY IN EASTERN PA WILL
WEAKEN BUT SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
DEEP CYCLONE.


WEDNESDAY...PERIODS OF WET SNOW AND RAIN (MAINLY WET SNOW I95
WESTWARD). FURTHER SNOW ACCUMS ANYWHERE SHOULD BE UNDER 2 INCHES.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUST 20 TO 25 MPH DURING THE DAY AND DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.


THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: THIS STUBBORN LOW NORTH OF US WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW. STILL THE THREAT FOR WRAP AROUND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION IN THIS PERIOD...THOUGH IT MAY STILL BE
COMPETING WITH THIS OCCLUDED CYCLONE FOR DOMINANCE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&
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#35 Postby Bizzles » Mon Dec 08, 2014 8:52 am

Looks like this week is going to be messy! Good chance to see some flakes, wish it were colder though!
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#36 Postby angelwing » Mon Dec 08, 2014 9:53 pm

JZ008>010-015-PAZ101>106-091115-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WW.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-141209T1200Z/
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MERCER-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
TRENTON...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...
PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
916 PM EST MON DEC 8 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET...FREEZING RAIN...AND SNOW...WHICH IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND MUCH OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHILADELPHIA AND DELAWARE
COUNTIES.

* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND
SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH
ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW THIS EVENING. AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY...
THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION AS WELL AS ICE ACCUMULATION
MAY LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES TONIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&
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#37 Postby Bizzles » Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:32 am

000
FXUS61 KPHI 091152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY
WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STORM WILL SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
FOR OUR WEATHER THIS COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MULTI-FACETED HAZARD HEADLINE EVENT IN PROGRESS.

FOCUSING ON IMPACTS AND BRIEFLY DISCUSSING SCIENCE WHERE IT MAY BE
HELPFUL.

FLOOD WATCH: WE MAY NEED TO CANCEL THE SW PORTION OF THE FLOOD
WATCH IN OUR MID OR LATE MORNING UPDATE. IT LOOKS TO ME PER THE
RECENT GFS AND HRRR AS WELL AS RADAR THAT THE GREATER RISK FOR
REPEAT EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE COASTAL AND NORTHERN NJ
AND MAYBE NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF KRDG.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH: HAZARD ON TARGET WITH MDT FLOODING ASSURED
AND IT MAY BE A STRONG MODERATE DOWN IN THE CAPE MAY-LEWES AREA.
SURGE OF 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FEET AT HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING. SANDY
HOOK LINKED COUNTIES I THINK MAY ESCAPE MDT FLOODING BUT NO
CHANGE TO THE WARNING. DEPARTURES AT SANDY HOOK ABOUT A FOOT LESS
THAN FURTHER SOUTH WHERE STRONGER INFLOW AND LOWER PRESSURE.


WIND ADVY: BEST POTENTIAL WHERE DESCRIBED ...MAY NEED TO ADD ATLANTIC
COUNTY AT THE LAST MINUTE. FEW GUSTS OF 45 KT EXPECTED MID OR LATE
MORNING. AT 5 AM ..MANY REPORTS AROUND 40 KT DE COAST TO MD ATLANTIC
COAST BORDERING DE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES: CUT THE SE TIER AT 630 AM AND CHANGED
TO HEAVIER ICE ACCUMS THE REMAINING ADVISORY AND ALSO THE WINTER
STORM WARNING. STILL SLEET IN SUSSEX COUNTY NJ.

WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE NEW ADVISORIES FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
BACKSIDE BANDING DEVELOPS ON BACK BENT MID LEVEL FRONT AND STILL
WAA OVER NYS AND NEW ENGLAND DRIVING LIFT IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
SIDE OF THE 700 LOW. THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY. GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL MAY ADD TO THE PROBLEMS AS TEMPS FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING.

WINTER STORM WARNING EXTENDED TO 18Z WED TO CAPTURE BACKSIDE SNOW.
THIS IS THE MOST UNCERTAIN PART OF THE FORECAST. NEARLY ISOTHERMAL
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WESTERN PORTION OF CARBON/MONROE COUNTY
WITH EXPECTED MXD FREEZING/FROZEN PCPN AT THE START CHANGING TO A
PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW THIS MORNING. THEN THE LIFT WEAKENS LATE
MORNING AND IT MAY TURN TO RAIN OR FREEZING THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL AND THEN WE LOOK FOR POTENTIAL
BANDING AND IF THIS OCCURS...ADDITIONAL MDT OR HEAVY SNOWFALL
WOULD OCCUR. DIFFICULT FORECAST AND WE`RE TRYING TO SLICE THIS
VERY CLOSE TO THE MARK. A WORRISOME FORECAST ON PTYPE.

AT 5AM..SE MONROE COUNTY HEAVY SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. WE ARE
GETTING REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN IN ALLAMUCHY (.1 GLAZE) AND
OXFORD NJ HAS SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
PLEASE SEE NEAR TERM FOR SOME INFO AND CONTINUE THE THEME WRITTEN
IN THE AFD FROM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.

EXPECT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE SNOWFALL TO OCCUR ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT AS STRONGER OMEGA AND FGEN COME TOGETHER.
MOSTLY BASED ON WHERE WE THINK THE BACKSIDE DEFORMATION ZONE WILL
SETUP...IN PENNSYLVANIA. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE PRETTY HEFTY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN PA ZONES WEST OF PHILADELPHIA DOYLESTOWN AND
ALLENTOWN OVERNIGHT (EXCT SNOW GROWTH AND I THINK POTENTIAL FOR
4+ IF THE MODELED SCENARIO VERIFIES) AS WE SEE THE TRANSITION
FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW. STILL THINK A SWATH OF 8-10 INCHES IS VERY
POSSIBLE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WESTERN
MONROE AND WESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MUCH OF THE AREA IS STILL UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL MEANDER NORTH/EAST OF
THE REGION. BANDS OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH
ACCUMS POSSIBLE MOSTLY N/W. GFS MODEL OVERNIGHT PAINTS SIGNIFICANT
SNOWS LEHIGH VALLEY NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS WAS TONED DOWN
SOMEWHAT WITH AN EC SOLUTION MORE LIKELY. WE COULD ADD 1 TO 2
INCHES TO SNOW TOTALS WED N/W.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD WITH GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE LOW STARTS TO RELAX ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. CHC
POPS N/W AND SLGT CHC POPS S/E...THESE POPS DECREASE THU NIGHT.

FRI THRU MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND SEVERAL DRY DAYS
EXPECTED. MODERATING TEMPS...WITH READINGS 4 OR 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL SAT THEN RISING TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD RAINFALLS FOR TUESDAY IN OUR HISTORICAL DATABASE.

ACY 2.51 2009
PHL 2.13 2009
ILG 2.28 2009
ABE 1.51 1973
TTN 2.25 1978
GED 1.93 2009
RDG 1.16 2009
MPO 1.82 1974

RECORD SNOWFALL FOR WEDNESDAY (LONG SHOT BUT JUST IN CASE)
PHL 4.3 1904
ILG 2.9 2013
ABE 2.7 2013

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 652A
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
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#38 Postby Bizzles » Tue Dec 09, 2014 8:33 am

Just rain...well...lots of rain for me...

You getting any white stuff out of this one Angel?
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#39 Postby angelwing » Tue Dec 09, 2014 10:43 am

Tons of rain Bizzles, nothing else. At least it's not icy............yet.
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#40 Postby angelwing » Tue Dec 09, 2014 1:07 pm

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
947 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014

NJZ008>010-012>015-019-020-025>027-PAZ103>106-092300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-141210T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-
COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...ATLANTIC CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
947 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2014

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THE FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NEW JERSEY...COASTAL ATLANTIC...
COASTAL OCEAN...EASTERN MONMOUTH...HUNTERDON...MERCER...
MIDDLESEX...MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...OCEAN...
SOMERSET...SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN MONTGOMERY...LOWER BUCKS...
UPPER BUCKS AND WESTERN MONTGOMERY.

* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT

* PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN TOTALS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES.

* AFTER THE HEAVIER RAIN ENDS...RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AFFECTING CREEKS...STREAMS...AND RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

&&

$$

KRUZDLO
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