Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

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Bizzles
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#41 Postby Bizzles » Wed Dec 10, 2014 1:52 pm

Little bit of snow falling north of the Princeton area and areas North & West, not much and is melting on impact.
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#42 Postby Bizzles » Wed Dec 10, 2014 1:56 pm

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
148 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014

NJZ007>010-012-015-PAZ060>062-101>106-102030-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...
BETHLEHEM...EASTON...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
148 PM EST WED DEC 10 2014

.NOW...
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 35
DEGREES, HOWEVER A NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING TO 35 MPH WILL MAKE IT
FEEL LIKE IT IS IN THE 20S.

$$
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#43 Postby Bizzles » Wed Dec 10, 2014 1:57 pm

Just started snowing in Hightstown :D
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#44 Postby angelwing » Thu Dec 11, 2014 10:01 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EST THU DEC 11 2014

PAZ060-071-103>106-111615-
BERKS PA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY PA-LOWER BUCKS PA-PHILADELPHIA PA-
UPPER BUCKS PA-WESTERN MONTGOMERY PA-
923 AM EST THU DEC 11 2014

...HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EAST CENTRAL
BERKS...NORTHEASTERN PHILADELPHIA...NORTHERN MONTGOMERY AND SOUTHERN
BUCKS COUNTIES...

AT 914 AM EST...HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS EXTENDED INTO BERKS COUNTY
TO BECHTELSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SNOW WILL DROP VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE MILE AND CAUSE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH. LESSER TRAVELED
ROADWAYS AWAY FROM PHILADELPHIA COULD ALSO BECOME OR REMAIN SNOW
COVERED AS THIS CONTINUES.

THIS SNOW BAND WILL AFFECT HARLEYSVILLE, MONTGOMERYVILLE,
WARMINSTER HEIGHTS, FEASTERVILLE AND HULMEVILLE AND OTHER
MUNICIPALITIES NEAR THESE LOCALES.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS IF YOU MUST TRAVEL THIS MORNING AND WATCH
OUT FOR VARYING ROAD CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 4048 7560 4045 7553 4042 7548 4043 7546
4017 7475 4004 7499 4032 7570

$$

&&
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#45 Postby angelwing » Thu Dec 11, 2014 10:02 pm

000
WWUS81 KPHI 120250
SPSPHI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014

PAZ060-103-104-120330-
BERKS PA-EASTERN MONTGOMERY PA-WESTERN MONTGOMERY PA-
950 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014

...A BURST OF SNOW WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BERKS AND NORTHERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...

AT 945 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR ALONG WITH A
SPOTTER REPORT INDICATED A BURST OF SNOW WAS OCCURRING FROM
NORTHEASTERN BERKS COUNTY THROUGH UPPER MONTGOMERY COUNTY. THIS BAND
OF SNOW IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THE VISIBILITIES WILL QUICKLY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE MILE DURING THE
BURST OF SNOW, AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF NEAR A HALF AN INCH CAN
OCCUR.

USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING INTO OR THROUGH THIS BURST OF SNOW, AS
VISIBILITIES AND ROAD CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE.

LAT...LON 4053 7596 4064 7584 4020 7522 4013 7548
4015 7551 4016 7550 4016 7552 4024 7559
4024 7561
iNWS is a
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#46 Postby Bizzles » Tue Dec 16, 2014 10:39 am

Hearing some noise about a nor'easter around the Sun/Mon timeframe...::watching::
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#47 Postby angelwing » Tue Dec 16, 2014 11:23 am

ANd 2 storms after that one :D
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#48 Postby Bizzles » Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:55 am

A CLIPPER SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE POLAR JET STREAM IS FORECAST TO
TRACK FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. THE DAY
SHIFT YESTERDAY NOTED A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH
THE TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AXIS OF SNOWFALL. THERE HAS BEEN
BETTER RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE LATEST 00Z MODELS BUT THEY
STILL TRENDED A BIT SOUTHWARD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY`S GUIDANCE.
MODELS SIMULATE THE RELATIVELY GREATER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM TO PASS SOUTH OF
PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE AND I-195 TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WAS USED AS
A PROXY TO DRAW THE HIGHEST POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. HOWEVER,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT SINCE THE LIFT APPEARS TO BE MODEST
AND MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID-LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY, THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A FAST MOVER (ABOUT A 6 HOUR WINDOW FOR SNOW). THIS IS
LOOKING LIKE A 1-2 INCH EVENT EVEN WITH SNOW RATIOS BETWEEN 12:1
AND 15:1. WE MAY EVEN SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA/SOUTHERN NJ/NORTHERN DELMARVA. THE SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING RUSH, WHICH HEIGHTENS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVERSE IMPACTS ON TRAVEL ESPECIALLY SINCE TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE 20S AND SNOW WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO ACCUMULATE
ON ROADWAYS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD BE JUST ABOUT OUT OF HERE BY THE EVENING RUSH.

ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH WEAKER THAN ITS
PREDECESSOR AND MOISTURE LIKELY GETS SQUEEZED OUT BY THE MOUNTAINS
TO OUR WEST. NONETHELESS, SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR AREA GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 700
MB. LOCALIZED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WOULD GENERALLY BE UNDER AN
INCH ALTHOUGH HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS.

A BRISK NW WIND AND STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAY`S CLIPPER
WILL PROVIDE A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. 850 MB TEMPS OF -24
TO -27C ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AND DAY IN ALMOST
A YEAR ARE EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POCONOS
AND FAR NORTHWEST NJ WHERE FORECAST WIND CHILLS ARE BETWEEN 10 AND
20 BELOW. THE LATEST MAX TEMP FORECAST FOR THURSDAY TRENDED SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS NOW ANTICIPATED TO RETREAT
FASTER. HOWEVER, IT`S STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE LATEST WPC
GUIDANCE.
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#49 Postby Bizzles » Mon Jan 05, 2015 8:56 am

Been quiet! But looks like a few clippers are headed this way, not much but I'll take it!
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#50 Postby Bizzles » Tue Jan 06, 2015 8:34 am

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>024-026-027-
PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-061500-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTON...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...LONG BEACH ISLAND...
WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...
ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...
OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...
POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...
MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
559 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS MORNING...

WE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SNOW SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE
OF MARYLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. EXPECTING A QUICK
PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS MORNING
COINCIDING WITH THE MORNING RUSH HOUR. LOW VISIBILITIES AND MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL CREATE SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES AND BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

$$

HEAVENER
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#51 Postby Bizzles » Tue Jan 06, 2015 8:34 am

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
458 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

NJZ007>010-012>015-PAZ062-071000-
WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-
EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-NORTHAMPTON-
458 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY, AROUND AN INCH, CAN RESULT IN TIMES OF
SLIPPERY TRAVEL ON UNTREATED SURFACES DURING AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF BRISK WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
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#52 Postby Bizzles » Tue Jan 06, 2015 8:36 am

000
FXUS61 KPHI 060946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
446 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION
TODAY. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND A
VERY STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL PUSH A
QUICK MOVING ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A WEAKER
COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY,
FOLLOWED THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST SETTLING OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MAY MOVE CLOSE
TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS
DIVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IOWA-ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THERE IS A WEAK REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE MARKED BY AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST. BOTH THE UPPER AND SURFACE FEATURES WILL
TRACK ALMOST DUE EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TODAY.

ON REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR, A BAND OF LIGHT REFLECTIVITIES HAVE
DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN VA. THE SNOW
WILL EXPAND NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHEAST PA (INCLUDING THE PHILLY METRO) BETWEEN 5 AND 7 AM AND
THE REST OF THE AREA BETWEEN 7 AND 9 AM. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME
FOR THE SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND DUE TO THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, SO THERE IS A CHANCE THE SNOW BEGINS SLIGHTLY AFTER THIS
WINDOW IF LIFT/PRECIP STARTS OUT VERY LIGHT. THIS WILL BE A SHORT
DURATION SNOWFALL EVENT WITH THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE
AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE OUT OF HERE BEFORE THE EVENING RUSH.

GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN EXCELLENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO MINIMAL SPREAD BETWEEN MODELS,
LEADING TO A FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THE SNOWFALL FORECAST.
MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS (NO CHANGES WERE MORE
THAN +/- AN INCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST). THESE EDITS INCLUDE
HIGHLIGHTING A BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (BETWEEN 1.5-3)
INCHES SOUTH AND WEST OF PHILLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
HIGHEST QPF ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE THE
BEST AND MOST PERSISTENT LOW- AND MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AS WELL
AS FGEN FORCING IS PROGGED. WE ALSO DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
SLIGHTLY OVER NORTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL/NORTHWEST NJ.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AREAS SOUTH
OF I-76 IN PA AND I-195 IN NJ. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE
SNOWFALL TOTALS MAY ULTIMATELY FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
MANY LOCATIONS, ADVERSE TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW
COINCIDING WITH MORNING RUSH HOUR. ALSO, SNOW WILL EASILY ACCUMULATE
ON UNTREATED ROADS GIVEN TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
THE CLIPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING. THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE ON ITS HEELS AS IT CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES
LATE TONIGHT. LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH IS EXPECTED
TO BE EXITING EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME CLEARING TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD BACK
INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND
INCREASING WESTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
INITIALLY LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS BUT
DID ADJUST IT DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES AFTER FACTORING THE FRESH
(ALBEIT LIGHT) SNOW COVER.

&&
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#53 Postby angelwing » Tue Jan 06, 2015 10:25 am

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
913 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

DEZ003-004-NJZ016>027-PAZ060-061-070-071-101>106-062100-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150106T2100Z/
INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-LEHIGH-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...REHOBOTH BEACH...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...READING...ALLENTOWN...
MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...
KENNETT SQUARE...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
913 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* HAZARD TYPE...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES.

* TIMING...ONGOING SNOW WILL LAST THROUGH MIDDAY... BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

* IMPACTS...THE SNOW FALLING WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THAT THE AIR AND GROUND ARE COLD...THE SNOW
WILL ACCUMULATE ON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES. THE BRIDGES AND OTHER
ELEVATED SURFACES TEND TO BECOME SLIPPERY FASTER AS THEY ARE
COLDER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE
PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#54 Postby angelwing » Wed Jan 07, 2015 10:54 am

Wind Chill Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
321 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

NJZ007-009-010-012-015-PAZ060>062-101>106-071630-
/O.EXB.KPHI.WC.Y.0001.150108T0000Z-150108T1400Z/
WARREN-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON...HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...
PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
321 AM EST WED JAN 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM
EST THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
9 AM EST THURSDAY.

* HAZARD TYPES...WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILLS...DROPPING TO AROUND 15 BELOW ZERO.

* TEMPERATURES...4 TO 16 ABOVE.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH WILL
BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...THE LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.
IF YOU MUST VENTURE OUTDOORS... MAKE SURE EXPOSED SKIN IS
COVERED.

&&

$$
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#55 Postby Bizzles » Thu Jan 08, 2015 10:22 am

Weather Obs has my area @ 8°F for 5 hours last night. Lowest wind chill was -12°F! :cold:
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#56 Postby Bizzles » Fri Jan 09, 2015 9:17 am

000
FXUS61 KPHI 091319
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
819 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA MIDDAY, FOLLOWED BY BRISK
WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE EAST COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY BUT COLD WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN MOVING OFFSHORE ON SUNDAY, WITH A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND ON SUNDAY, AND BE 10-15 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL REMAIN FOR SUNDAY, BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG.

AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH PULLS TO OUR EAST AND LOSES
CONTROL OVER THE AREA. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WHICH WILL PULL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY. AS A COUPLE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA, THEY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA
THAT WILL INTERACT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND HELP ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE PROBLEM WE ARE GOING TO HAVE IS
THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY STILL BE COLD AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION, WHILE WARMER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF A RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE TO START, THEN AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND COLDER AIR MOVES BACK IN, IT MAY CHANGE BACK
TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTHEAST WHICH COULD HELP ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE COAST.

THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS A DIFFERENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THERE IS DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE
GFS HAVING A STRONGER HIGH BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
SUPPRESSING THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE ECMWF WHICH
KEEPS THE HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND MORE DISTURBED WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. WE STARTED TO TREND THE THE MORE SUPPRESSED PATTERN
SIMILAR TO WPC WHICH KEEPS MOST OF THE AREA DRY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, WE STILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION DURING THE PERIOD.

THE HIGH WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA, WHILE
A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO HOW THE
GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THIS LOW WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER AND FARTHER
WEST, RIDING ALONG THE COAST. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS THE
SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY, AND THE POTENTIAL
REMAINING FOR THIS COASTAL SYSTEM, WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
PERIOD WOULD LIKELY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO OCCUR IF IT DOES PASS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING THE AREA PRECIPITATION.

&&

$$

LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#57 Postby angelwing » Sun Jan 11, 2015 10:22 pm

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
323 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2015

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ012>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-121015-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.150112T0600Z-150112T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-
MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...NEW BRUNSWICK...
FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...
CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...
PHILADELPHIA...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...
LANSDALE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
323 PM EST SUN JAN 11 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM
EST MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA...AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN DELAWARE AND FAR
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND...INCLUDING THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

* HAZARD TYPES...A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO PLAIN RAIN. PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH SLEET
AND SNOW BRIEFLY MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE AND GENERALLY
JUST TRACE AMOUNTS OF SLEET.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE START OF THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE...CHANGE OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN BY THE START OF THE MORNING COMMUTE...THEN PLAIN
RAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF
SNOW AND SLEET MIXING IN MONDAY EVENING.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS COULD BE SLIPPERY MAKING THE MORNING
COMMUTE MORE DIFFICULT THAN USUAL. UNTREATED SIDEWALKS AND
WALKWAYS WILL ALSO BE HAZARDOUS.

* TEMPERATURES...RISING FROM AROUND 30 AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE MID 30S DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#58 Postby angelwing » Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:17 am

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
943 AM EST MON JAN 12 2015

NJZ012-015-PAZ102-104-106-121700-
/O.EXT.KPHI.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-150112T1700Z/
MIDDLESEX-MERCER-EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...
WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
943 AM EST MON JAN 12 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ON SOME
SURFACES.

* TIMING...FREEZING RAIN WITH AREAS OF RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL
RAIN DURING THE REST OF THE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AND SLEET MIXING IN THIS EVENING BEFORE
THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

* IMPACTS...UNTREATED SURFACES WILL BE SLIPPERY, WITH HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL AT TIMES. BRIDGES AND OTHER ELEVATED SURFACES TEND TO BE
COLDER, THEREFORE USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING ACROSS THEM.
THE SURFACE MAY LOOK JUST WET, HOWEVER THERE COULD BE ICY
PATCHES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S, THEN TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RISING THROUGH THE 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW, SLEET, OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY
ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#59 Postby angelwing » Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:02 am

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
928 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

NJZ019-PAZ071-103-104-106-220300-
/O.EXA.KPHI.WW.Y.0005.150121T1600Z-150122T0300Z/
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...
PHILADELPHIA...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
928 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW. IT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM THIS
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...PHILADELPHIA COUNTY, MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND LOWER
BUCKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA, AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON
COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...MOSTLY SNOW WITH A BIT OF SLEET AT TIMES.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES.

* TEMPERATURES...MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

* TIMING...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO TAPER TO FLURRIES IN THE
EVENING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SLEET COULD LEAD TO
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON ROADS, WALKWAYS AND PARKING LOTS. THE
PERIOD OF GREATEST IMPACT WILL INCLUDE THE EVENING COMMUTE.
MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTRA CAUTION. REDUCED VISIBILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT SNOW AND SLEET WILL CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED
VISIBILITY, AND USE EXTRA CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

&&

$$
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Re: Mid Atlantic Winter 2014-2015

#60 Postby angelwing » Wed Jan 21, 2015 10:17 am

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
418 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

NJZ016>019-PAZ071-103-104-106-220930-
SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-PHILADELPHIA-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
418 AM EST WED JAN 21 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TRACK UP THE EAST COAST
ON SATURDAY AND BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
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