SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

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SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

#1 Postby vbhoutex » Fri Oct 31, 2014 3:34 pm

Since it appears we are going to have our coldest weather of the season this weekend it seems like a good time to start this thread.
Jeff Lindner says we could be in for COLD AND WET. and especially WET NEXT WEEK.

Strong cold front moving into SE TX and will result in the coldest weather since last spring this weekend.

Increasing confidence in significant and potentially prolonged heavy rainfall event next week.

Cold front is crossing SE TX currently and winds will pick up out of the north a few hours past sunrise this morning. Batch of thunderstorms ahead of the boundary is moving southward across south TX after brushing our western counties overnight. Cold air advection will onset by mid-morning, but will be offset some by the sunny skies. Think temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70’s and then begin to fall by late afternoon. Models continue to trend colder and colder with this air mass and this will require some modification to the temperatures for the weekend and this evening.

Other item of marginal concern this afternoon is fire weather. Gusty N winds of 15-25mph and incoming dry air mass with dewpoints falling into the 30’s and RH values into the 20’s suggest a modest fire weather concern. The past few weeks have been very dry and surface fine fuels have dried as noted in the increased KBDI values. Main threat would be quick moving grass fires mainly in the counties southwest of Houston (Fort Bend, Wharton, Jackson, Matagorda, Brazoria, and Colorado). Current data does not suggest Red Flag Warning conditions will be met this afternoon.

This evening:

Will undercut temperatures by 5 degrees for this evening over yesterday as the temperature fall once the sun sets will likely be a little more rapid. Temperatures at 600pm will be near 70 falling to the upper 50’s by 800pm and the mid 50’s by 1000pm with north winds of 5-10mph.

Weekend:

Will lower morning lows on Saturday into the lower 40’s north of I-10 as guidance has trended colder showing a low of 40 at College Station and 44 at IAH. Weak cold air advection continues on Saturday so temperatures will only top out in the mid to upper 60’s for highs. Even colder on Sunday morning with lows into the upper 30’s around Lake Livingston to near 40 Houston metro and mid 50’s on the coast. Some of the usually cold locations could even dip into the mid 30’s. GFS is showing 33 at Conroe Sunday morning. Do not think any widespread freeze is likely even for our northern counties, but a few locations could have near freezing temperatures and frost especially in low lying areas and river bottoms where the dense cold air will settle during the night.

Next Week:

Major upper air pattern change will result in an extended period of wet weather. A strong upper level trough will drop into the SW US and dig into northern MX early next week which will result in strong return flow and moisture advection off the Gulf of Mexico starting late Sunday. Global models remain inconsistent on their handling of how this trough will evolve and when exactly it progresses across TX. The overnight guidance as trended away from the more progressive solutions being offered yesterday and support a slower and more cut off upper level system which would only serve to prolong what is an already very wet forecast. Will start to lean more toward the slower solution with a stalling cold front reaching into the state on Tuesday and our area Wednesday. As the trough digs into the Baja and northern MX region it will capture then Hurricane Vance off the southwest coast of Mexico and recurve it NNE and NE into the Mexican coast and then bring the remaining moisture across TX. Hurricane track guidance is in fair agreement on this pattern and the latest NHC forecast brings Vance to the Mexican coast late Tuesday evening.

Ahead of the upper trough excessive moisture pouring of the top of Vance and increasing Gulf moisture will saturate the air column. The flow aloft will turn increasingly out of the SW on the downstream side of the upper trough and begin to parallel the frontal boundary resulting in it stalling. Numerous disturbances ejecting out of the trough and Vance will move along the stalling front and produce periods of very heavy training rainfall.

Expect heavy convective rains to begins across N TX on Tuesday and begin to sag southward into central and SE TX Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday. Remains of Vance should arrive over top of the region Wednesday and Thursday helping to prolong the heavy rainfall threat. In fact some of the latest guidance hangs on to heavy rainfall into next weekend. PWS values are forecasted to near or exceed 2.0 inches starting late Tuesday and with slowing convection and high potential for cell training excessive rainfall and flooding is becoming a concern. Big question is exactly what happens to the upper trough to our SW and does it cut off and continue the Pacific “El Nino” enhanced tap of moisture through the end of the week as this will be the ultimate determining factor in the duration of the rainfall and the overall totals.

Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches appears likely for the event, but I strongly caution that these totals may be significantly under forecasted at the moment, but given the onset is still over 4 days away I would not go much higher than that at this time. For what it is worth this is a historical flood setup in the state of TX and in the past similar setups with a stalling frontal boundary, deep upper trough SW of TX, and the remains of an eastern Pacific hurricane have produced devastating flooding in October 1994, October 1998, October 2002, and October 2006.
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#2 Postby CajunMama » Sat Nov 01, 2014 12:53 am

I just looked at the local NWS forecast. 33 Sunday morning?????????? :eek: :cold:
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#3 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Nov 01, 2014 3:24 pm

CajunMama wrote:I just looked at the local NWS forecast. 33 Sunday morning?????????? :eek: :cold:

BBBBBBBBRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :froze: :cold: We're only expecting 43f here in Houston at my last check. I may need to look again though since we've only made it to 62f so far.
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#4 Postby CajunMama » Sun Nov 02, 2014 10:11 am

It only got to 37 but that's more than cold enough for me!
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Re: SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

#5 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 9:14 pm

We had a low of 42 this am. Plenty cool for me!
Looks like we are headed for a possible flooding event in SE and SC TX depending on how things set up. This is the latest from Jeff.
Widespread heavy rainfall likely Tuesday-Thursday

Ingredients coming together to produce a heavy rainfall event over a large part of TX this week potentially making a significant dent in the ongoing hydrological drought over central TX.

Deep upper air trough will dig into the SW US and northern MX early this week turning the flow over TX out of the SW aloft. This trough is starting to capture hurricane Vance off the SW MX coast turning the system northward and this trend should continue allowing mid and high level moisture to begin to spill northeastward into TX. Cold surface high pressure is moving eastward allowing Gulf moisture to begin its return at the low levels to the state. This is clearly noted by a dewpoint of 55 at Victoria versus 36 at Lufkin currently.

A cold front in association with the upper level trough will move into TX on Monday and enter SE TX late Tuesday and progress to the coast on Wednesday. By late Tuesday the air mass will saturate as moisture from both Vance and the Gulf combine over the state. The cold front becomes increasingly parallel to the upper level SW flow which will result in a favorable echo training pattern.

While the global models have converged on a more progressive system, moisture levels are forecasted to rise to a staggering 2.20 inches of PW at CRP which is +3 standard deviations above normal for early November. Strong frontal lift and favorable jet dynamics along the boundary working on a highly moist air mass paints a very wet mid week period. The threat for cell training induced flash flooding is high from late Tuesday into most of Wednesday. I am concerned with such moist values the models are and have been showing now for days and the potential for organized heavy training rainfall.

Frontal boundary should reach the coast late Wednesday, but base of the upper trough is slower to move eastward allowing moisture to flow up and over the surface cool pool resulting in continued light to moderate rainfall into Thursday.

Rainfall Amounts:

Still early to attempt to narrow down any one area that may see the greatest amounts. The event looks widespread over a large part of the state with widespread totals on average of 2-4 inches. Isolated amounts upwards of 6 inches are certainly possible and I would venture that a few locations will see a foot of rainfall before this event is done.

Short fused flash flooding will be the main concern under the training excessive rainfall cells in urban areas and across the hill country/flash flood alley area with a large scale hydrological response likely on all river basins due to the large QPF fields being predicted. While it is too early to be certain of the location of the highest rainfall amounts, the potential for rises of watersheds to flood stage is certainly possible by mid to late week.

It should be noted that WPC has outlooked a large part of TX and all of SE TX for excessive rainfall on their Day 3 outlook and an upgrade to a moderate or even high risk is possible as the event onset nears and confidence increases on the location of the greatest rainfall.

Flash Flood Watches will likely be needed for large portions of the state including most if not all of SE TX by Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
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#6 Postby windnrain » Tue Nov 11, 2014 1:58 pm

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KBTR

GFS has us in BTR getting our first freeze on Friday.

Think we'll have another snow/ice event like earlier this year during this winter season? I sure hope so, that was so fun.

Note: Link fixed by me (wxman57)
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#7 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Nov 11, 2014 2:12 pm

windnrain wrote:http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=kbtr

GFS has us in BTR getting our first freeze on Friday.

Think we'll have another snow/ice event like earlier this year during this winter season? I sure hope so, that was so fun.


The link cut off and will not work. Can you repost it, please?

I was mentioning in another thread that early last year the cold blasts seemed to just miss us. Our temps would drop but not nearly as much as those to our West. Hopefully this year the pattern favors the cold sliding a little more East and hopefully this patterns continues all winter. I hate to waste these cold anomalies in November when they would better serve us for winter precip in January/February.
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Re: SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

#8 Postby windnrain » Wed Nov 12, 2014 4:22 pm

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Re: SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

#9 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:29 am

Freeze warning for SE TX!
Jeff Lindner's morning email:
***Freeze Warning in effect for tonight and Friday morning for all SE TX counties except along the immediate coast***

***Freeze Watch in effect for the coastal counties will likely be upgraded to a freeze warning this afternoon.***


A couple degrees away from a big mess this morning with the light to moderate rain falling into a very cold surface layer with temperature hovering in the 34 to 38 degree range. Short wave responsible for the large area of rain overnight is quickly moving eastward with back edge of the light rain along US 59 currently. Should see all precipitation end by 900am for most areas. Clouds will remain most of the day and with strong cold air advection continuing there will be very little temperature recovery today. Highs in the mid 40’s look reasonable for most areas.

Upstream air mass is bitter cold with Denver currently at -11 and Casper at -15 which is breaking 70 year old records this morning. Amarillo has fallen to 14 this morning after a high on Wednesday of only 21. To give an idea of just how impressive this arctic outbreak has been: Borger, TX had a record high of 85 on Monday ahead of the front and recorded a record low of 15 degrees yesterday morning which equates to a 70 degree temperature change in a little over 24 hours.

Tonight/Friday morning:

Very cold arctic air mass with large arctic high over the plains will continue to build into TX. Shortwave exiting to the east will allow skies to clear late this afternoon and with low dewpoints in place and winds decreasing a widespread killing freeze is likely over much of SE TX Friday morning. Expected morning lows for Friday morning:

N of HWY 105: 25-28

N of US 59: 29-32

Inside Beltway 8: 30-32

Interior coastal counties: 30-33

Immediate coast: 35-38

Duration of sub-freezing temperatures will be on average 8-12 hours north of I-10 and 4-8 hours elsewhere across the region where the temperatures fall to freezing.

Temperatures of this magnitude will effectively end the growing season and result in damage to sensitive vegetation and citrus that is not protected. Exposed outside pipes should be protected, but do not expect any big concerns with damage to pipes as we are currently not looking at a prolonged hard freeze.

Weekend:

Strong short wave moves across TX Saturday and Saturday night forcing a coastal trough over the lower TX coast that moves northward on Saturday. Moisture rapidly increases over the surface cold dome resulting in increasing rain chances. Clouds will begin to increase from SW to NE Saturday morning with showers developing by mid to late afternoon. Warm front will approach the coastal counties and may move inland Saturday evening and Saturday night with a heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorm threat along and south of US 59. Coastal low heads for SW LA early Sunday with another dump of very cold arctic air into the region and off the coast. Temperatures will be tricky on Saturday as strong warm air advection tries to erode the arctic dome in place. Models are usually too aggressive in eroding shallow cold arctic air and hence tend to be too warm in treating arctic air mass situations. Additionally the increasing clouds and rain will help to hold down the warning to advective processes only. The exception will be near the coast where the warm front may move inland allowing a warm humid air mass to push onshore. Could be a fairly significant temperature gradient across the area Saturday evening with near 70 at the coast to the 40’s inland. As the coastal low moves east on Sunday the next dump of arctic air will keep temperatures steady or falling into the 40’s during the day.

Models want to bring another disturbance across TX in the cold air Sunday night into Monday with winter precipitation across the northern portions of the state. Not sure how much moisture will be available by Sunday night into Monday as the upstream air mass is very dry, but this is something to keep an eye on over the next 48 hours.

Next cold air surge looks to be even colder than the current one with widespread freezing temperatures possible by next Tuesday morning. Guidance is already showing lows into the 20’s by the middle of next week and this far out is usually too warm.
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#10 Postby CajunMama » Thu Nov 13, 2014 2:26 pm

Hard freeze warning for most of Louisiana tonight. This is CrAzY!!!!!
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#11 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Nov 13, 2014 3:18 pm

CajunMama wrote:Hard freeze warning for most of Louisiana tonight. This is CrAzY!!!!!

Plants and Pets, any word on pipes CajunMama? I'm in Vermilion Parish and probably will not get as low as you.
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#12 Postby CajunMama » Thu Nov 13, 2014 11:18 pm

Rob Perillo said pets, plants and people. I'm in south Lafayette parish just a couple of houses away from Comeaux High School so I'm probably not that far from you. It's still gonna be :cold:
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Re: SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

#13 Postby vbhoutex » Sat Nov 15, 2014 11:53 am

We never did hit freezing during this cold snap. We did get down to 33f with rain and maybe a few sleet pellets around(very early am when people sleep). Currently at 45f which is one degree below the highest we have seen in 4 days, so we may be seeing a "heat wave" during the next 36 hours or so before the following-Jeff Lindner's latest email-happens:
Cold arctic air mass remains in place over the region this morning with another colder surge heading for the US border out of Canada.

Coastal trough and surface low pressure system starting to take shape along the lower TX coast will bring an active 36 hours to the region.

Temperatures this morning running a solid 10 degrees above Friday morning values. Freeze line Friday morning ran roughly along US 59 north of Houston to FM 2920 to Waller then WSW to Columbus. Mid level cloud deck hampered central and coastal counties freezing conditions Friday morning…but we will all have another shot next week. Surface arctic dome is attempting to modify, but increasing ENE to NE winds will help lock in the cold air today. Clouds have never really cleared out much since last Tuesday and will only increase with thickening and lowering today as moisture is pulled northward over the surface cold pool. Think surface dry layer will take much of today to saturate before rainfall becomes a concern…likely not until this evening. Patchy fog and some drizzle may develop by mid to late afternoon as the surface warm front moves toward the coast.

Strong short wave will help to energize the coastal low tonight and bring it near/just inland over the upper TX coast. Warm front progresses toward the coast and possibly inland as far as US 59 overnight into Sunday with significantly warmer temperatures (60’s) south of that boundary, in fact there may be a fairly impressive temperature gradient across the area early Sunday. Low level shear values are maximized late tonight into early Sunday along and south of US 59 and if any of the elevated storms can work toward the surface and take advantage of the strong low level shear an isolated severe storm will be possible. Main threats will be wind damage and isolated tornadoes.

Widespread rain will blanket much of the area from late tonight through most of Sunday with heavy rainfall certainly possible. Rainfall amounts have been increased in the past 24 hours and now suggest an average of 1-3 inches is possible across the region with the heaviest rain likely near and south of the warm frontal boundary.

Secondary arctic surge with temperatures over NW Canada currently well below zero will roar southward behind this storm system and off the TX coast late Sunday. Very strong cold air advection will result in tumbling temperatures by Sunday evening likely from the 50’s and 60’s into the 30’s and 40’s with strong winds. Gale Watch is in effect for the Gulf waters and a Gale Warning will likely be needed as very strong NW winds develop under the building arctic high and models showing 925mb winds of 40-45kts Sunday night over the coastal bend into the Gulf waters. A third weaker short wave will move across mainly the northern part of the state Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Models are a little more aggressive with the onset and intensity of the cold air advection which brings P-type into question for Sunday afternoon and evening mainly across north TX. Expect a rain/snow line to develop and move southward Sunday afternoon as the air column cools. A mixture of might rain/flurries may extend as far south as the Hill Country Sunday evening. Current thinking is that the profiles over SE TX will still be too warm for any P-type mixture Sunday night as the rain ends.

If clouds can clear out Monday then a widespread freeze is likely by Tuesday morning with lows in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. As we saw yesterday however cloud cover will play havoc with the overnight lows.

A sustained warming tend looks likely by the end of next week with southerly flow returning along with clouds and rain chances. In fact temperatures may warm into the lower 70’s by next Friday as this arctic outbreak is dislodged.
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Re: SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

#14 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Nov 19, 2014 10:49 am

Third official freeze here this morning with a low of 29 and a very heavy frost. This definitely ends the growing here as our previous 2 freezes did not have any frost. Will be interesting to see how this winter turns out.
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#15 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Nov 19, 2014 2:43 pm

Yep. I think my grass is done. Will be one of the earliest kill offs ever. I remember mowing in January while I have been living in Humble. Pretty sure that will not happen this year.. LOL
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Re: SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

#16 Postby LaBreeze » Thu Nov 20, 2014 3:24 am

PTrackerLA wrote:Third official freeze here this morning with a low of 29 and a very heavy frost. This definitely ends the growing here as our previous 2 freezes did not have any frost. Will be interesting to see how this winter turns out.

Anyone see anything down the pike that calls for more arctic type weather?
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Re: SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

#17 Postby Sambucol » Sun Nov 23, 2014 12:59 pm

LaBreeze wrote:Anyone see anything down the pike that calls for more arctic type weather?


I'm wondering the same thing!
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Re: SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

#18 Postby BigB0882 » Mon Dec 01, 2014 4:09 pm

One of the local stations said that this November was the 2nd coldest on record for Baton Rouge, only behind 1976. Hopefully the rest of winter is the same and we have chances for SNOW! So far December is starting off warm although I will admit the temps are very comfortable for taking the dog out in the morning and on walks in the afternoon. lol
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Re: SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

#19 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Dec 15, 2014 12:45 am

Here is Jeff's take on the next two weeks. Looks like a strong pattern change and return to more Winter like weather sometime around or just after Christmas.

Frequent weather changes coming to TX over the next several days.

Initial storm system moving into the central plains this evening with a trailing line of thunderstorms into N TX and scattered showers in the warm air advection regime over SE TX. Main dynamics are well north of the region and the surface cold front is well west of the area over W TX. Dry air is noted above the surface helping to keep rain showers scattered and light. Will likely see a slight increase in shower activity as the cool front crosses the area tomorrow afternoon. Post frontal air mass is Pacific in nature so only a slight cool down…or back to near average from the above average warmth of late.

Tuesday will by partly cloudy and cool with lows in the 40’s and highs in the 60’s (near normal).

Southern stream jet will remain very active with next upstream storm system rapidly approaching from the west by mid to late week. Surface front over the NW Gulf will bring to return northward as a warm front on Wednesday. Expect warm air to overrun the cool surface dome by late Tuesday with clouds increasing from SW to NE late Tuesday and light rain and fog developing north of the warm front on Wednesday. Models are usually too fast in their northward transport of the warm air mass in such situations and think this will be no different with the front slowly moving inland late Wednesday.

Region is warm sectored Thursday and Friday as strong storm system approaches from the WSW out of NE MX on Friday. Expect increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday with the best chances arriving on Friday. Could see some heavy rainfall Thursday and Friday with good moisture advection. Instability looks limited, so not expecting any severe weather. Temperatures will run above normal again Thursday and Friday with lows in the 60’s and highs in the 70’s. Post frontal air mass behind this storm will be of more Canadian air with temperatures falling into the 30’s and 40’s for lows and 50’s for highs by next weekend. GFS suggest low level moisture may be trapped in the frontal inversion next weekend and this would result in a cold air advection low level stratus deck and keep highs even colder than currently suggested.

Christmas Week:

Third storm system appears to arrive 22-24 Dec with another shot for showers and thunderstorms. This storm system however appears to help buckle the upper air pattern with ridging building deep into Alaska and a large downstream trough carving out across much of the US. Bitter cold air mass currently in place over Siberia (-40 to -50F) may shift across the north pole and into NW Canada as the ridge builds into Alaska. This would place extremely cold Siberian air in place to be unleashed southward into the US following the early Christmas week storm system. Forecast models have been hinting at enough upper air pattern amplification during the period between Christmas and New Year’s to suggest at least some arctic air could be in store for the area. Additionally, the southern stream will remain active with storm systems roughly every 2-4 days across TX. While this pattern change is still over 7 days away, operational and ensemble support has been increasing over the last few days and much colder and stormy pattern appears increasingly likely by Christmas week and into early 2015. Main questions over the next several days will be if the coldest air comes straight southward or glances TX and heads more for the east coast and if enough cold air will be in place with any of the storm system to produce any winter precipitation.
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Re: SW LA/SE TX WINTER 2014-2015

#20 Postby Jagno » Mon Dec 15, 2014 10:41 am

Well our meager attempt at rain chances so far have been a non event here in SW LA. We really needed the rain.
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