January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

[cycloneye]

36 hours before a potentially historic blizzard for several metropolitan cities, The Weather Channel is airing "Why Planes Crash" and the New York Times has no mention of the system on their website. Embarrassing, really.

That is not good at all. Do they have a winter weather expert?

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS. Bombing winter storm "Juno:"

[CYCLONE MIKE]

36 hours before a potentially historic blizzard for several metropolitan cities, The Weather Channel is airing "Why Planes Crash" and the New York Times has no mention of the system on their website. Embarrassing, really.

Saw the same thing. Switched over at 5 to the weather channel and that was coming on. For such a historic storm and that's what they are showing is absolutely ridiculous. Whoever is in charge of that station should be fired.

[gatorcane]

It's on the front page of the New York Times now with headline "Blizzard Is Likely to Be Among Largest Ever in New York."

There is our storm over Kentucky this evening booking east where it should bomb out once it moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic as it makes the turn towards the NNE or NE.

[Shoshana]

American Airlines is already canceling flights scheduled for JFK on Tuesday. I'm sure it's more widespread than that but that's all I know about for sure.

[7Deep]

It will be interesting to see how this storm compares to the '96 blizzard. I was in NY back then and it was surreal.


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[Cyclenall]

36 hours before a potentially historic blizzard for several metropolitan cities, The Weather Channel is airing "Why Planes Crash" and the New York Times has no mention of the system on their website. Embarrassing, really.

Some things never change . It wouldn't surprise me if CNN has more comprehensive coverage pre-real time storm conditions than TWC but when its on both will be live wall-to-wall overnight likely.

It's on the front page of the New York Times now with headline "Blizzard Is Likely to Be Among Largest Ever in New York."

There is our storm over Kentucky this evening booking east where it should bomb out once it moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic as it makes the turn towards the NNE or NE.
*Loop Cut*

Fast turnaround with that newspaper. No gradual build-up here.

It will be interesting to see how this storm compares to the '96 blizzard. I was in NY back then and it was surreal.

I just read the Wikipedia article for the '96 blizzard, interesting storm.

For this I'm hoping there are a lot of streamers and chasers filming this in 4K HD. Best of luck to those wanting some interesting weather for a change. I know I won't have any.

[cycloneye]

From the New York NWS: They trimmed slightly the snow totals but not by much.Lean on ECMWF and NAM.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LIFE THREATENING...POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM EXPECTED
FROM LATE TODAY INTO TUESDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN ONE WOULD LIKE TO
SEE AT SUCH A SHORT RANGE. MUCH OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE LOWERED QPF
AMOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WHICH WOULD MEAN LOWER SNOW
TOTALS. HOWEVER...THE 00Z ECMWF REMAINED VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS
PREVIOUS RUNS. IT DID LOWER QPF SLIGHTLY...BUT THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM REMAINED SIMILAR TO ITS 12Z RUN. DID NOT WANT TO MAKE
DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS AND HEADLINES WITH
JUST ONE MODEL CYCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST 06Z NAM HAS COME INTO
CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 21Z AND 03Z SREF MEANS
REMAINED SIMILAR TO THE 00Z ECMWF AND 06Z NAM.

THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE A FAST NE OUTLIER. IT MAY ALSO BE
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS QPF
MAXIMUM OFFSHORE...AND DOES NOT SEEM TO GET FULLY CAPTURED BY THE
UPPER LOW.

STILL ANTICIPATE THE LOW TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS THE
PARENT UPPER LOW CUTS OFF ALOFT NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
TONIGHT. THE LOW STALLS SE OF MONTAUK LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THE NW
FLANK OF THE LOW...IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE. THE MID LEVEL LOW
CENTERS AND INTENSE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL PROMOTE HEAVY
SNOW BANDS...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THEIR LOCATION THIS
FAR OUT. MODELS ALSO HAVE A TENDENCY TO NOT SPREAD THE BEST LIFT
FAR ENOUGH NW IN INTENSE CYCLONES.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...DID LOWER SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY IN
COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND WPC...BUT WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING AN OVERALL 18 TO 24 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE BEST
MESOSCALE SNOW BANDING SETS UP. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-4 INCHES PER
HOUR EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

IN ADDITION...THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HEAVY FALLING/BLOWING SNOW WILL
CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. A BLIZZARD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED WINDS UP
TO 35 MPH ON LONG ISLAND...AND WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 40 MPH
INLAND...TO 45-50 MPH MOST ELSEWHERE. GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

WITH THE LOW NEARLY STALLING NEAR CAPE COD ON TUESDAY...LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN MESOSCALE
BANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TEMPS DURING THE STORM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S...EXCEPT
FALLING TO 15-20 TONIGHT INLAND. WIND CHILLS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS...BUT COULD GET CLOSE TO ZERO ACROSS
SOUTHERN CT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 20S.

[ronjon]

Another model battle between the ECM and GFS - ECM stalls the low 50 miles off Nantucket Island while GFS is more progressive and slides the low just east of the 40N-70W benchmark. Will make a difference as to whether a typical noreaster or one that is historic in nature. For what it's worth, the ECM has support from the NAM.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

12z NAM simulated radar reflectivity valid 9z tomorrow morning. The latest run was slightly stronger and farther west than previous ones, leading to incredible snowfall totals across Long Island (50"). Widespread 2-3ft totals.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Latest NWS forecast:

[TheAustinMan]

OSPO analysis of the system

[Dave C]

Storm more east and giving the coastal front a quicker push east.

[tomboudreau]

Will be interesting to see what my family tells me what they got out of this. Brother is on Long Island, parents in Northeast Connecticut, sister in Southern New Hampshire. For myself, 6 inches of snow in the Pittsburgh metro area.

[ronjon]

Good discussion of the storm from NWS Boston Mass AFD:

WV LOOP SHOWS DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WITH
WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT/TROWAL LIFTING NWD
INTO NEW ENG. RAPID CYCLOGENESIS IN PROGRESS WITH SFC LOW DOWN TO
984 MB. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK...BUT GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF A TRACK CLOSE TO THE BENCHMARK AS A SUB 980 MB
STORM AROUND 12Z. ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT NORTH DURING TODAY AS THE
LOW GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH WILL PROLONG
OCCASIONAL HEAVY SNOW THROUGH TODAY.

SNOWFALL / BANDING / BLIZZARD...
VERY INTENSE MESOSCALE BAND SETTING UP ACROSS N CT THROUGH
CENTRAL/NE MA ASSOCD WITH THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW PRODUCING STRONG
OMEGA THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PROBABLY SEEING 2-4"/HR
SNOWFALL RATES IN THIS BAND. MEANWHILE...PULSES OF HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS WHICH ARE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE
OCEAN ACROSS SE MA. VERY HEAVY CLUSTER OVER THE ISLANDS WILL BE
MOVING UP ACROSS SE MA NEXT 1-2 HOURS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
6 C/KM ACROSS SE NEW ENG SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES 2-3"/HOUR WILL BE
DEVELOPING IN SE MA AND PORTIONS OF CAPE COD.

[ronjon]

Biggest snowfall totals are 18 inches as of 6 am in Barnstable and Worcester Counties in Mass.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[cycloneye]

NYC was a bust as totals are under what was expected.Kudos to GFS.

[ronjon]

NYC was a bust as totals are under what was expected.Kudos to GFS.

Yep the newly revised GFS won this match. Highest snowfall from NWS New York as of 6am was Islip airport in Suffolk county (eastern Long island) at 18.2 inches.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

[RL3AO]

Still have a long way to go in expressing uncertainty when it comes to snow totals.

[ronjon]

Winner so far is Middlesex county in Mass with 30 inches of snowfall as of noon.