January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

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January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

#1 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:40 pm

Over the past 24 hours, reliable computer guidance has trended towards the potential for a widespread and potential crippling winter storm across the Northeast, or more specifically across the New England region. At the current time, a shortwave trough and associated surface low is diving southeastward across the Midwest United States. This trough should continue in that general direction and reach the Mid-Atlantic/Appalachians on Monday, where it's forecast to round the base of the larger upper-level trough and take on a negative tilt (northwest-to-southeast orientation). As this occurs, enhanced upper-level divergence on the southwestern flank is expected to promote lower surface pressures and the formation of a surface low off The Carolinas. This low is forecast to move northwestward and track just offshore the Northeast U.S. coast through Wednesday while undergoing bombogenesis. If this were to occur, a significant snowstorm would play out from New Jersey through Maine, with the potential for blizzard conditions across Connecticut and Massachusetts. One proxy meteorologists typically use to determine whether or not a storm will have serious implications for the Northeast is to use the 40N/70W benchmark. If the center of a nor'easter tracks west of this point, more significant impacts are favored; if the center tracks east of this point, less significant impacts are favored. Obviously there are some exceptions to that rule.

Right now, our two best models - the ECMWF and GFS - are in agree for a significant storm, but the two disagree on the magnitude of snowfall as a result of the timing of the system. The ECMWF is slower, leading to a longer duration event across the Northeast, while the GFS is quicker, leading to a shorter duration event. Verbatim, the 12z ECMWF run forecast accumulation totals of 1.5-2' from southern New Jersey through southeastern Maine, while the 0z GFS run forecast totals of ~1' for the same regions, with the potential for 1.5' across southeastern Massachusetts. However, at this juncture, it's pointless to take these values to heart. The bottom line is that the potential for a blockbuster winter storm exists across the Northeast starting late Monday and continuing through early Wednesday.

The four-panel image below shows 72-hour snowfall percentile graphics via the Weather Prediction Center. The 10th percentile represents the most reasonable best-case scenario (i.e. the least amount of snow), the 50th percentile represents the most reasonable scenario at this point, and the 90th percentile represents the most reasonable worst-case scenario (i.e. the greatest amount of snow). The 25th percentile was just thrown in there to make a four-panel image. :lol: These totals are likely to move around a lot over the coming days.

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#2 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Jan 24, 2015 11:47 pm

While the focus of this post was on the system's life as a nor'easter, accumulating snow is likely across the Midwest, Ohio River Valley, and Mid-Atlantic prior to that time. Totals of 1-3" are likely from central North Dakota through northwestern Illinois, with 2-4" totals from north-central Illinois through southern New Jersey. The bullseye looks to be southwestern Pennsylvania, northeastern West Virginia, and western Maryland, where 6-8" of snow is possible.

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#3 Postby RL3AO » Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:54 am

I put this on twitter earlier. There was a massive shift west in the heaviest band of snow in Minnesota with this clipper. 36 hours ago this was a Duluth into western Wisconsin event. Now its western and southwestern Minnesota. Models totally underestimated this shortwave trough which is going to have huge downstream impacts. Instead of a weak low 300 miles off the coast, we are now looking at what could be the storm of the season for the major cites of the northeast.

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Re: January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

#4 Postby Brent » Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:32 am

Ryan Maue: ECMWF 00z model forecast is crippling w/upwards of 2-3 feet of snow in New England from NYC to Boston.
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Re: January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

#5 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Jan 25, 2015 1:54 am

Brent wrote:Ryan Maue: ECMWF 00z model forecast is crippling w/upwards of 2-3 feet of snow in New England from NYC to Boston.

And an additional foot across eastern Massachusetts with the second nor'easter in the medium range.
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Re: January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

#6 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 25, 2015 5:38 am

Blizzard Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
356 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...MAJOR NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT TRI-STATE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY....

CTZ006>008-010>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-252100-
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
356 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 12 TO 18 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN
POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

&&

$$

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...

MAZ005>007-013>021-RIZ001>008-251700-
/O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.A.0001.150127T0000Z-150128T0600Z/
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-
BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...
WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...
NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
352 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES.

* TIMING...THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST...THE SNOW MAY BE WET
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER OUTAGES.
TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE THREATENING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HISTORIC STORM.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR CONSIDERABLE
FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH AND VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/4 MILE FOR AT LEAST
3 HOURS. WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAKING TRAVEL
VERY DANGEROUS. BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS.

&&

$$
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#7 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:06 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
922 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAJOR TO POTENTIALLY HISTORIC WINTER STORM MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT
* BLIZZARD WATCH EASTERN MA/RI
* 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS - LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS - GUSTS 60 TO 70 MPH
* SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST


DETAILS...

THIS IS PRETTY MUCH A TEXT BOOK CASE FOR A MAJOR WINTER
STORM/BLIZZARD IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST CLOSES OFF SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND AS LOW PRESSURE BOMBS OUT
AND TRACKS UP THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW MOVING/LONG DURATION STORM. IN
ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
COLD AIR FOR THE STORM TO WORK WITH SO PTYPE WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE A
CONCERN FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST.

WE ARE NOW QUITE CONFIDENT THAT THIS WILL BE A MAJOR WINTER STORM
AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME HISTORIC FOR SOME LOCATIONS.

WILL BREAK DOWN THE VARIOUS HAZARDS IN THE NEXT VIEW PARAGRAPHS.

1) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND AND PTYPE

THE MID LEVEL LOW/S ARE CLOSING OFF JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THAT WILL PROBABLY PUT US NEAR
GROUND ZERO FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. OF
COURSE THERE MAY BE AREAS THAT EXCEED 2 FEET WHERE LOCALIZED BANDING
SETS UP...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO WORRY ABOUT THAT. VERY STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH 1035 MB HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND BOMBING
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRONG TO DAMAGING NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH ACROSS EASTERN MA/RI. GUSTS BETWEEN 60 TO 70
MPH EXPECTED ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS!

WILL ISSUE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA/RI FOR 1 TO 2
FEET OF SNOW AND 40 TO 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. THIS LOOKS TO BE A
SERIOUS WINTER STORM AND TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.
CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALSO EXPECTED.

ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MA/NORTHERN CT HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH FOR 12 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW. ITS POSSIBLE WE MAY HAVE TO
UPGRADE SOME OF THAT REGION TO A BLIZZARD WATCH/WARNING...BUT WAS
UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH WIND WOULD MIX DOWN ACROSS THAT REGION AND ITS
STILL A LATE 4TH AND 5TH PERIOD EVENT. WE ARE ALSO LEANING TOWARDS
THE WESTERN ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME LED THE CONSISTENT
ECMWF. IF THE STORM TRENDS EAST A BIT...WE MAY BE OVERDONE WITH OUR
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES SO SOMETHING FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO WATCH.

THE CAPE AND ISLANDS PRESENT THE MOST CHALLENGING FORECAST.
DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE STORM...PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A TIME. IF COLDER SOLUTIONS VERIFY
THERE WILL BE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...BUT IF IT ENDS UP WARMER COULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAIN. THEREFORE...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM
AND HIGH WIND WATCH. IN FACT...WE LIKE GOING WITH THE HIGH WIND
WATCH HERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS. THIS MAY
COMBINE WITH ANY WET SNOW TO CAUSE DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES.

2) TIMING:

THE WORST OF THE STORM LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED AND VERY SLOW TO DEPART THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY WORK INTO THE REGION SOMETIME
WED MORNING.

3) NARROW SWATH OF DAMAGING WET SNOW

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A NARROW SWATH OF HEAVY WET SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN TERMS OF
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS.
IT MAY BE A SMALL AREA JUST NORTHWEST OF THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...BUT
MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

WHILE THE STORM COMES TO AN END EARLY WED MORNING AND THE CLEANUP
BEGINS...WE MAY BE DEALING WITH ANOTHER WINTER STORM LATER THU OR
FRI.
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Re: January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

#8 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:20 pm

CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EVOLVING INTO A NOR'EASTER MON/TUE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~
PREFERENCE: GENERAL MODEL COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE

THERE REMAIN SOME SLIGHT EAST-WEST AND SLIGHT PROGRESSION ISSUES
WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH PLAY HAVOC WITH THE
QPF/PRECIPITATION/WINTER WEATHER FORECAST. IN REVIEWING THE 00Z
ECMWF, 12Z NAM, AND 12Z GFS, ALL THREE HAVE WHAT APPEAR TO BE
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES CONTAMINATING THEIR SOLUTIONS.

THE ECMWF'S SLOWS DOWN THE OVERALL CYCLONE MORE THAN THE OTHER
GUIDANCE STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NAM'S BULL'S EYES OVER THE
GULF STREAM OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST APPEAR TO CAUSE AN EASTWARD
SHIFT IN ITS 12Z SOLUTION AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE GFS'S
BULL'S EYE/QPF BOMB DRAGS ITS BOUNDARY LAYER WIND CIRCULATION
ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ON ITS 12Z RUN, MORE TO THE WEST
OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE DESPITE ITS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE
IS A CHANCE OF SOME WOBBLING OF THE OVERALL SYSTEM DUE TO AN
INVADING SHORTWAVE ROUNDING ITS SOUTHWEST SIDE ON TUESDAY, WHICH
WOULD LEAD TO A LESS EVEN FORWARD PROGRESSION. THE 00Z GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS MIRRORS THE ENVELOPE OF
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS AMONGST THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF, CANADIAN, AND
UKMET. THERE IS NO OVERARCHING TREND SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY
TOWARDS A QUICKER OR SLOWER SOLUTION, THOUGH THE
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMET HAVE TRENDED WESTWARD -- IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE 12Z GFS. THE OCCASIONALLY SLOW/PLODDING 09Z SREF MEAN LIES IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD, QUICKER THAN THE 12Z
NAM/00Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS. SINCE NO SOLUTION CAN BE COMPLETELY
DISCOUNTED WHEN USING THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD, 700 HPA HEIGHT
FIELD, AND 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELD, FAVOR A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
ECMWF/00Z UKMET/00Z CANADIAN/12Z GFS/12Z NAM, WHICH ROUGHLY
RESEMBLES THE 09Z SREF MEAN AT 500 HPA AND THE SURFACE. FOR QPF
AND WINTER WEATHER CHOICES, SEE OUR QPF AND WINTER WEATHER
DISCUSSIONS AND GRAPHICS.
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#9 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Jan 25, 2015 12:31 pm

Current ensemble clusters...
Image
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Re: January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

#10 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:33 pm

Will many records fall with this big storm?

Image
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Re: January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

#11 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:36 pm

Planes going to this.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1240 PM EST SUN 25 JANUARY 2015
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JANUARY 2015
WSPOD NUMBER.....14-056

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. A62/ DROP 6 (35.8N 70.4W)/ 27/0000Z
B. AFXXX 05WSA TRACK62
C. 26/1830Z
D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 27/0200Z

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: TODAY'S TASKED WINTER-STORM MISSION 04WSA HAS BEEN
BEEN CHANGED TO A66/ DROP 9 (28.2N 93.8W)/ 26/0000Z WITH A
TAKEOFF TIME OF 25/2000Z.
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Re: January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

#12 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 25, 2015 2:44 pm

A 3 day event?


SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1723Z SUN JAN 25 2015

A REGIONAL CRITICAL WEATHER DAY...CWD...WILL BE DECLARED AT 1800Z
SUN JAN 25 2015 AND EXTEND THROUGH 0000Z THU JAN 29 2015. THE
FOLLOWING NWS REGION IS IMPACTED BY THIS CWD...EASTERN.
NCEP/NWSTG AND THE NCF ARE ALSO PARTICIPATING IN THIS CWD TO
ENSURE A RELIABLE FLOW OF WEATHER DATA. ALL SCHEDULED
SOFTWARE/HARDWARE/NETWORK CHANGES FOR THE IMPACTED OFFICES WILL
BE POSTPONED UNTIL THE CWD HAS ENDED. ANY EMERGENCY CHANGES WILL
BE EVALUATED AND APPROVED BY THE LOCAL/REGIONAL MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS. NWS OFFICES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR REGIONAL OFFICES FOR
FURTHER QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS CWD.

HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... suedby=NFD
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#13 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Jan 25, 2015 3:30 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...CRIPPLING AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC BLIZZARD TO IMPACT THE AREA
FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...


CTZ006>012-NJZ006-104-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-260430-
/O.UPG.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.150126T1800Z-150128T0500Z/
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN BERGEN-EASTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN UNION-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
319 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY AND SURROUNDING IMMEDIATE
SUBURBS...LONG ISLAND...AND MOST OF SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WITH BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 20 TO 30 INCHES...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 TO 65 MPH...STRONGEST
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING...WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE BY THE EVENING RUSH.
SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS FROM ABOUT MIDNIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS...WITH WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE.
STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS...MAKING
TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

ALL UNNECESSARY TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...TO ALLOW PEOPLE ALREADY ON THE ROAD TO SAFELY REACH
THEIR DESTINATIONS BEFORE THE HEAVY SNOW BEGINS...AND TO ALLOW
SNOW REMOVAL EQUIPMENT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR ROADS.

&&

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#14 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Jan 25, 2015 3:52 pm

Just-updated NWS New York forecast:

Image

And Mt. Holly:

Image
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#15 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:04 pm

Blizzard Warnings now encompass the entirety of Connecticut and Rhode Island, eastern Massachusetts, and southeastern New Hampshire and Maine.

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#16 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jan 25, 2015 4:20 pm

12Z GFS bombs out this storm right off the coast of MA: :eek:

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12Z ECMWF:

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Re: January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

#17 Postby Nimbus » Sun Jan 25, 2015 5:10 pm

Worst Blizzards in northern New England often involved a negative tilt front blocking the storms exit.
Looks like the heaviest snowfall will be in the NYC area north.
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#18 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Jan 25, 2015 5:28 pm

Latest NWS forecast:

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Re: January 25–28, 2015 Winter Storm/Blizzard

#19 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 25, 2015 5:40 pm

Very long discussion from the Taunton MA NWS.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
433 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
* HISTORIC AND POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING BLIZZARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE
NIGHT
* UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW FOR MANY AREAS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
* DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY COAST ESP CAPE/ISLANDS...GUSTS 60 TO 75 MPH
* POCKETS OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN MA
COAST

OVERVIEW...

OVERALL MULTI-MODEL AGREEMENT ON SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN LEADS US
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE OF A HISTORIC WINTER STORM AND POTENTIALLY
CRIPPLING BLIZZARD FOR SNE. POTENT NEG TILT SHORTWAVE DIVING TO SE
US COAST WILL RESULT IN SFC REDEVELOPMENT OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND MON NIGHT AS MID LEVEL
LOW CLOSES OFF. HIGH PRES WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
PROVIDING A SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ENHANCING BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG
THE COAST. THE STORM EVENTUALLY GETS CAPTURED WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
VERY SLOW MOVEMENT NWD FROM NEAR THE BENCHMARK AND LONG DURATION
STORM.

THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THE 850/700 MB LOWS AND
HOW QUICKLY IT EXITS THE AREA WHICH WILL IMPACT EXACTLY WHERE BEST
BANDING SETS UP...POTENTIAL DRY SLOT EASTERN NEW ENG AS WELL AS
PTYPE FOR CAPE/ISLANDS. WE THINK GFS IS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND A BIT
TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST WITH MID LEVEL LOW AND WE ARE LEANING TOWARD
ECMWF/NAM BLEND WHICH ARE REASONABLY CLOSE.

DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN MID LEVEL LOW TRACK...QPF IS PRETTY SIMILAR
WITH 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES ACROSS SNE WITH LOCALLY UP TO 3 INCHES.
PROBABLY LOOKING AT NEAR CLIMO SNOW LIQUID RATIOS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO
10:1 IN THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NO MORE THAN 12-15:1 INTERIOR AS MID
LEVEL TEMPS IN THE SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE ARE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON BLIZZARD IN EASTERN NEW ENG SO WE ARE UPGRADING
WATCHES TO BLIZZARD WARNINGS. WE ARE ALSO EXPANDING THE BLIZZARD
WARNINGS TO N CT...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MA AND CAPE COD AND MVY.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR WESTERN MA AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT WIND
CRITERIA WILL BE MET. AND FINALLY FOR ACK...WE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH AS WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN 6 INCHES OF SNOW DUE TO PTYPE
ISSUES AND WE ALSO UPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.

1) PRECIP TYPE...

THERMAL PROFILE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA...BUT
WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH WARMING FOR A POSSIBLE CHANGE TO
RAIN OVER ACK LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...WITH THIS WARMING POSSIBLY
REACHING THE OUTER CAPE FOR A TIME DURING TUE. ECMWF IS PRETTY
BULLISH ON THIS WARMING AND NAM ALSO SHOWS IT BUT TO A LESSER
EXTENT.

2) HEAVY SNOW/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS/WIND

SNOW WILL BE RAMPING UP QUICKLY MON EVENING...WITH VERY HEAVY SNOW
LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO TUE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS VERY IMPRESSIVE BANDING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS AND LIFTS N
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OCCURS AS THE MID LEVEL LOW CLOSES OFF TO
THE SOUTH WITH TIGHTENING THERMAL GRADIENT ENHANCING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. VERY STRONG OMEGA THROUGH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE COMBINED WITH -EPV SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR 2-3"/HR SNOWFALL
RATES AND POCKETS OF THUNDER SNOW 06-15Z AS THE BAND LIFTS TO THE N.

MODELS SHOW BANDING SIGNATURE MOVING INTO THE INTERIOR WEST OF I-95
CORRIDOR DURING TUE AND PIVOTING FROM E-W TO NE-SW
CONFIGURATION...WHILE POSSIBLE DRY SLOT MOVES INTO PORTIONS OF E MA.
FORECASTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BANDING...WHERE IT PIVOTS AND
LOCATION OF THE DRY SLOT TUESDAY IS VERY CHALLENGING AND WILL
DETERMINE WHERE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW SETS UP. THIS WILL DEPEND ON
THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. ECMWF PUSHES THIS BAND ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN NEW ENG WHILE NAM IS CLOSER TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WE
THINK IT WILL SET UP A LITTLE WEST OF I-95 ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE
COASTAL FRONT AND THIS IS WHERE WE THINK HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUM WILL
BE.

POTENTIAL FOR 2-3 FEET OF SNOW IN THIS ZONE NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...
UP TO 2 FEET FAR W MA AND ALSO SE MA WHERE DRY SLOT MAY CUT BACK ON
SNOW ACCUM A TAD DESPITE HEAVIER QPF HERE. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO
FIND THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT NW OF MAX QPF AXIS BECAUSE OF WHERE THE
BANDING SETS UP. FOR THE CAPE AND MVY WE ARE LOOKING AT 10-18" WITH
HEAVIEST NEAR THE CANAL. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ACK AND WE
HAVE UP TO 6 INCHES HERE BUT WILL DEPEND ON TIMING OF CHANGEOVER.

HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY WET SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SE MA AND CAPE
COD WHERE THERE IS ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR DOWN TREES AND POWER
OUTAGES...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS. DRIER SNOW IN THE
INTERIOR.

VERY STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AS IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS N OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRES. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS 70-80 MPH FOR THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WHEN
STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR. GUSTS TO 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS REST
OF SE MA EAST OF THE I95 CORRIDOR...AND 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.

COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO
VISIBILITY LATER TONIGHT INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEW ENG. THIS
IS A SERIOUS AND LIFE THREATENING STORM AND TRAVEL IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED TONIGHT INTO TUE.

IT LOOKS LIKE THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATE
TUE AND ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AS THE LOW BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED
AND BANDING BECOMES FRACTURED...BUT LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST MOST OF
THE NIGHT GIVEN PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST...WITH
SNOW FINALLY ENDING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
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#20 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sun Jan 25, 2015 5:55 pm

36 hours before a potentially historic blizzard for several metropolitan cities, The Weather Channel is airing "Why Planes Crash" and the New York Times has no mention of the system on their website. Embarrassing, really.
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