Texas Winter 2015-2016

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 5173
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Texas Winter 2015-2016

#1 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Jul 04, 2015 2:13 pm

The Fourth of July, one of my favorite holidays of the year! BBQ with the family, an ice cold watermelon, swimming in the pool with the kids and fireworks tonight with the family.

Happy Independence Day everyone! :flag:

Now, once we get beyond the Fourth, my thoughts start turning towards the approach of fall and eventually, wintertime.

Here's hoping for a winter season that will make everyone happy (well, except maybe for Wxman 57 :D ).
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

tstorm98
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 8
Joined: Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:18 pm
Location: Central California Coast

Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#2 Postby tstorm98 » Sat Jul 04, 2015 7:19 pm

I think it will be cool and very wet due to strong to super el nino.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5413
Age: 54
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

#3 Postby Tireman4 » Sun Jul 05, 2015 1:07 pm

Here is hoping for a cold and snowy one!!!
Last edited by Tireman4 on Mon Jul 06, 2015 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9422
Age: 57
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#4 Postby Portastorm » Sun Jul 05, 2015 3:47 pm

Did someone say: WINTER??!! :cheesy:
0 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 5173
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#5 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jul 06, 2015 10:50 pm

Portastorm wrote:Did someone say: WINTER??!! :cheesy:


Shhhhhhh! Don't let you know who have any idea that we're having this discussion about wintertime during his summertime rule!

For what it's worth, I've heard rumors on the street that there is a secret plan in the works to get some cold air from Canada and the Pineapple Express to collide somewhere over scenic SW Austin this winter. :wink:

Mum's the word!
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5125
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#6 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Jul 09, 2015 10:52 pm

I look forward to a cold and snowy winter. Perhaps, an epic winter. :lol: :grrr: :cold: :froze:
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17307
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#7 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 10, 2015 10:54 am

This coming winter could be edge of the blade for us. The El Nino is a two sided mask, on one hand we love the subtropical jet and the below normal conditions. The problem is if it is a super El Nino, and it is east based, will it flood Canada and Alaska with overwhelming warmth as strong El Nino's do. Of course all of that could be masked by the state of the EPO/PNA which the +PDO is on our side for now.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1587
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Farmers Branch, TX

#8 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Jul 10, 2015 5:26 pm

I'm so excited, and I just can't hide it. I'm about to lose control and I think I like it. Okay, time to stop channeling my inner Pointer Sisters. Winter is a long way off but I like the prospect of a good one. :froze: Winter is so wonderful.
0 likes   

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2171
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#9 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jul 15, 2015 6:59 am

Long range models for this coming winter look very promising if you're a fan of cold/stormy, phenomenal blocking over the pole with cold anomalies directly over the southern plains....

Image

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 19113
Age: 62
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#10 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jul 15, 2015 7:40 am

You guys should be outside enjoying the best weather of the year. The long cold snap that started last September has finally broken - temps have reached 95 across Houston for the first time this summer. Time to celebrate!
0 likes   

User avatar
Tireman4
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5413
Age: 54
Joined: Fri Jun 30, 2006 1:08 pm
Location: Humble, Texas
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#11 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:21 pm

wxman57 wrote:You guys should be outside enjoying the best weather of the year. The long cold snap that started last September has finally broken - temps have reached 95 across Houston for the first time this summer. Time to celebrate!



Hey man...are you not supposed to be in the Summer section...my gracious...LOL
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17307
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#12 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 20, 2015 8:00 pm

Any winter forecasts this year, needs to put the strong-super El Nino into consideration.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5125
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re:

#13 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Jul 27, 2015 9:53 pm

Ntxw wrote:This coming winter could be edge of the blade for us. The El Nino is a two sided mask, on one hand we love the subtropical jet and the below normal conditions. The problem is if it is a super El Nino, and it is east based, will it flood Canada and Alaska with overwhelming warmth as strong El Nino's do. Of course all of that could be masked by the state of the EPO/PNA which the +PDO is on our side for now.


An article of interest.

Why a ‘super El Niño’ could still be a bust for California drought relief
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... ht-relief/

It talks about the warm water off the coast of Alaska as a factor.
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 5173
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#14 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Jul 28, 2015 1:33 pm

Interesting note from Steve McCauley, he just posted this to his Facebook page:

"The latest data from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) continue to show a strengthening El Nino across the Pacific as ocean temperatures continue to warm and trade winds relax. The strongest El Nino on record was back in 1997 which brought extreme weather events during the winter with very heavy rains and flooding to California, well above normal precipitation across the south along with several severe weather events including a tornado outbreak in Florida.


However, it should be kept in mind that past performance is no guarantee of future results. Interestingly, there is a large area of above-normal sea surface temperatures this year extending all the way up into the Gulf of Alaska. This feature was altogether absent in the El Nino of 1997-98. This could throw a monkey wrench into the upcoming winter outlook.

Warmer-than-normal ocean waters in the Gulf of Alaska tend to create conditions favorable for arctic air outbreaks. Couple this with warmer-than-normal temperatures in the tropical Pacific could provide the ideal setup for intense winter storms. But although it is almost certain that El Nino will persist through the upcoming winter, it is not so clear if the waters in the Gulf of Alaska will be able to maintain their warmer-than-normal status."
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1587
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Farmers Branch, TX

#15 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:30 pm

:uarrow: Just read that. If all the stars line up just right, it could be an interesting winter. Wondering if we have ever had a strong Nino accompanied with the warm waters near Alaska. The arctic shots with moisture have been amalgamated just right the last two winters. It's early but I am hoping for a continuation of the pattern we have experienced the last two winters in combination with a strong Nino. Could be great. Since that record snowfall in Feb 2010, I often wondered if the DFW area could feasibly see a two footer. That would be awesome. Yeah, that is crazy but wow what an experience that would be. Ok back to the summer death heat. Yuck.
0 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17307
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#16 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:23 am

The mechanics this winter will be very different than the past several. The warm pool and EPO has been dominant because ENSO has been nonexistent or weak for a good 4 years. This has changed, no only is it El Nino but it is a big one. The Gulf of Alaska will eventually cave to colder waters, the process is already happening due to the classic Aleutian low that El Nino loves to intensify. Happens in every major Nino. Key is to get the ridging to stay in NW Canada. This is why Decembers are blowtorches in El Nino years because Nino flexing is strongest. A notable exception was 2009 when the AO tanked to record levels.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17307
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#17 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jul 29, 2015 7:44 am

Here are some visuals to help show my previous post. It is remarkable the persistence climo for the major El Nino's. Weak and even moderate events can deviate but the strong (ONI > +1.5C) are very consistent.

All of them featured a normal to mild December, likely because El Nino's peak around NDJ and Canada is flooded with warmth.

Image

By January the El Nino's slowly weaken and their influence becomes less that allows Canada to get cold, however we still keep the roaring lingering subtropical jet.

Image

By February the Nino continues to weaken with the seasonal jet still strong, evidenced by the anomalies

Image

Luckily the southern tier of the US is favored to be below normal. Canonical Nino events generally behave very similar. There are often low skill in forecasting winters that bears weak ENSO events or neutral. But in strong events (strong La Nina, strong El Nino) skill becomes higher as the ENSO event imposes the classic climo that they favor below. Good confidence the upper tier of the US will experience a very mild winter while the lower tier cooler than normal.

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 5173
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#18 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Aug 07, 2015 3:47 pm

0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2171
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#19 Postby orangeblood » Mon Aug 10, 2015 8:56 am

Texas Snowman wrote:Interesting read about the upcoming winter...

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter


Very interesting and telling evidence, thanks for sharing....considering this was the 2nd strongest Arctic July block since 1950 and of the top ten July arctic blocks ALL had negative AO's the following winters, I believe it's a very safe bet to assume high latitude blocking for this winter. Coupled with a strong El Nino, things could get very interesting across the southern plains this winter!!!
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 5173
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

#20 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Aug 10, 2015 11:51 am

:uarrow: I don't want to jinx anything. But maybe it really will be the winter of discontent for you know who. :cheesy:

And a dreamy winter scenario for Portastorm and all of our friends in central and SE Texas. They need some snow and cold this winter!
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests