Texas Winter 2015-2016

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just checked the HRRR. Lots of rain coming for the great state of Texas tonight.

[Ntxw]

Just checked the HRRR. Lots of rain coming for the great state of Texas tonight.

And for some once it starts it will be an all day rain type thing. Especially the northern third of the state where a trowel develops.

[Brent]

the 0z nam looks like no snow just a very cold rain

[Ralph's Weather]

Most likely temps will be just a tad too warm for snow, but it will be snowing heavily down to 900 or so mb so it wouldn't take much all to get that to the surface with heavy precip.

[Ntxw]

Jet streak with this storm is pretty wicked. I remember Christmas 2012 the storm had a similar impressive jet streak as it dove down the rockies, but that one had a strong HP to the north with surface cold compared to this one. Still though this is no child's play storm. Some intense shear in MS/AL with probably some monstrous tornadoes on the other side of the system.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

Impressive storm system moving toward TX will bring multiple impacts over the next 24-36 hours.

Water vapor images show rapidly approaching short wave trough over the SC Rockies diving toward SW TX early this evening. Strong height falls are already overspreading the western edge of low level moisture return over SW TX leading to strong thunderstorms. Forcing increases even more tonight with surface low formation likely over SW TX. Surface pressure falls to our W will activate the stalled boundary near the coast from this morning’s activity and return the boundary northward as a warm front. 40-50kt low level jet develops late this evening and will transport a rich Gulf air mass into the region. Wind profiles greatly increase after midnight with digging upper level jet stream carving into the area and deepening surface low advancing ENE out of SW TX. Meso models show clusters/squall line developing ahead of surface low over C TX late this evening and pushing ESE to SE into SE TX between 200am-600am Tuesday. Low level shear values certainly increase, but instability is generally lacking (around 600 J/kg). Main threats will be strong winds…possibly severe gusts (58mph) with bowing line segments. While the tornado parameters are there, the lacking instability will likely keep things in that department under control…this will not be the case to our east over LA/MS/AL where a significant outbreak of potentially long tracked violent tornadoes is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. In fact the low level helicity value of 756 m^2/s^2 at New Orleans for Tuesday afternoon is the highest values I have ever seen! If the instability is there…a few monster tornadoes will result across the deep south/gulf coast.

It should be noted that a couple of the high resolution models are showing the thunderstorms arriving faster overnight around midnight to 300am.

Post Frontal Winds:

Wind Advisory issued for all areas Tuesday afternoon and night.

Gale Warning all waters including inland bays. Small craft should seek safe harbor on Tuesday.

Surface cyclone deepens while moving toward NW LA late Tuesday with surface pressures falling to or below 995mb. Surface pressure gradient will be very tight with strong isobar packing on the SW flank of the departing storm system and building Canadian high pressure cell down the central plains. Models continue to show a corridor of enhanced winds from CLL to SGR to HOU to GLS late Tuesday afternoon with frequent gust 40-45mph. Will go with sustained winds 25-35mph with gusts of 40-45mph. Winds will be stronger over the bays and Gulf waters with gusts of 45-50mph possible. Winds may be strong enough to cause power outages. Winds will howl Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning before subsiding by Wednesday afternoon.

Aviation:
Strong to very strong winds will blast all terminals. Approach and departures on east/west runways will have intense crosswinds with frequent 40mph+ gusts. Strong low level shear within low level jet corridor Tuesday afternoon and evening with heavy turbulence in lowest 3,000ft. Strongest winds likely at CLL, SRG, HOU, GLS, but IAH and CXO will not be much behind.

Marine:
Significant blowout wind event likely for inland bays Tuesday PM-Wednesday PM. Water levels dropping 2-3 ft from today’s values with strong offshore flow. Seas rapidly building 4-7 ft nearshore and over 12 ft offshore with frequent gusts 45mph+. Would not be surprised to see a few offshore rigs gust to 60mph at elevated heights. Low water levels in the bays and navigation channels will increase the potential for vessel groundings.

[Texas Snowman]

@BigJoeBastardi - Models not seeing it, but dont be surprised if this changes over the heavy wet snow for awhile around DFW. Big snows: w ark to Mich

[Ntxw]

@BigJoeBastardi - Models not seeing it, but dont be surprised if this changes over the heavy wet snow for awhile around DFW. Big snows: w ark to Mich

Joe would score a coup if that happened. His calls for winter not being over. I could see how it could happen, upper dynamics.

[Brent]

Fox 4 just led the 10pm news with the S word...

[Texas Snowman]

Pete Delkus tweeted the S word too!

[Texas Snowman]

@wfaaweather -- Snow?!?!??!?Just makes me feel good typing that word!!

@wfaaweather -- I'm tingling with excitement! If temps drop faster than anticipated Tuesday PM, a few flakes may mix in with rain:

[Ntxw]

The trend of the upper level low and surface low has gone south the past several runs also. ULL may kick out of south Texas vs central Texas so is the surface reflection into SE Texas vs NE texas from Sunday's run. The short range guidance agrees on the southerly ejection. That would kill the dry slot once the colder air starts working it's way down for N Texas. The big call is the temperature from about 2500ft down. That's where it's warmest, above it's all cold and very good dendrite making even from the GFS.

[Texas Snowman]

Update from jeff:

...this will not be the case to our east over LA/MS/AL where a significant outbreak of potentially long tracked violent tornadoes is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. In fact the low level helicity value of 756 m^2/s^2 at New Orleans for Tuesday afternoon is the highest values I have ever seen! If the instability is there…a few monster tornadoes will result across the deep south/gulf coast.

I saw where LSU is cancelling classes tomorrow afternoon and other schools in Mississippi and Alabama are closing early or even for the entire day.

Makes me kind of wonder if an April 2011 kind of day is shaping up?

[Brent]

WFAA's model just had a snow band over the north metro in the 7-9pm timeframe... it's brief but there.

I'm still in believe it when I see it mode.

[Texas Snowman]

@1stHandWeather out of Norman responded to the Bastardi tweet:

@1stHandWeather -- Yep, agree. He's one of the few picking up on this possibility.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Update from jeff:

...this will not be the case to our east over LA/MS/AL where a significant outbreak of potentially long tracked violent tornadoes is possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. In fact the low level helicity value of 756 m^2/s^2 at New Orleans for Tuesday afternoon is the highest values I have ever seen! If the instability is there…a few monster tornadoes will result across the deep south/gulf coast.

I saw where LSU is cancelling classes tomorrow afternoon and other schools in Mississippi and Alabama are closing early or even for the entire day.

Makes me kind of wonder if an April 2011 kind of day is shaping up?

Most schools in South LA are closed and it's pretty ridiculous for an enhanced risk of severe storms. Not trying to get all political but this is the epitome of the pussification of America. Never in all my years of school did we ever get days cancelled due to the "potential" of bad weather. The day before Andrew made landfall we were in school. Could go on and on and not even talking about walking to school in the middle of a blizzard in 3 feet of snow

[Brent]

[Brent]

Winter uncancel?

[Stormcenter]

Not your normal severe weather threat so I agree 100% with the call considering the unknown arrival of the severe weather.

Update from jeff:

I saw where LSU is cancelling classes tomorrow afternoon and other schools in Mississippi and Alabama are closing early or even for the entire day.

Makes me kind of wonder if an April 2011 kind of day is shaping up?

Most schools in South LA are closed and it's pretty ridiculous for an enhanced risk of severe storms. Not trying to get all political but this is the epitome of the pussification of America. Never in all my years of school did we ever get days cancelled due to the "potential" of bad weather. The day before Andrew made landfall we were in school. Could go on and on and not even talking about walking to school in the middle of a blizzard in 3 feet of snow

[weatherdude1108]

Getting a steady moderate to heavy rain with occasional lightning and thunder. Been so long, I forgot what it sounded like!!