Texas Winter 2015-2016
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
Forbes has a torcon of 3 and 4 in the Panhandle down to WIchita Falls and western OK already for Tuesday...
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
I'll tell you what ... if that 12z Euro op run verifies for the middle of next week, we're going to have one heckuva severe weather outbreak in Texas.
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I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
Portastorm wrote:I'll tell you what ... if that 12z Euro op run verifies for the middle of next week, we're going to have one heckuva severe weather outbreak in Texas.
Definitely another big widespread rain event regardless...
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
FWD AFD:
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS
AN OPEN TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATES THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SLOWY SINK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS DIFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN WE
RECEIVE...BUT IN EITHER CASE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...THERE WILL BE A LOT MORE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES.
THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS
AN OPEN TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATES THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SLOWY SINK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS DIFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN WE
RECEIVE...BUT IN EITHER CASE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...THERE WILL BE A LOT MORE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES.
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The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
March in like a Lion. Looks like we have the storm train rolling.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
1.32 in fell here at my house. Not bad considering the long dry period we've seen. Looking forward to the next round.
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Resident Rain Miser
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.
- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
Ntxw wrote:March in like a Lion. Looks like we have the storm train rolling.
I would say that I would bring some cold air down with me when I go on break on March 11th, but there's not much to work with here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
this winter has been so weird everywhere... it's February 24th and there are tornado watches in NEW JERSEY and tornadoes on the ground in VIRGINIA... Hail and gusty winds reported in the DC metro...
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
Brent wrote:this winter has been so weird everywhere... it's February 24th and there are tornado watches in NEW JERSEY and tornadoes on the ground in VIRGINIA... Hail and gusty winds reported in the DC metro...
There's a lot of warmth available (and little cold) and cold fronts haven't scoured the gulf. When you get the jet streak to come down = tornadoes.
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:this winter has been so weird everywhere... it's February 24th and there are tornado watches in NEW JERSEY and tornadoes on the ground in VIRGINIA... Hail and gusty winds reported in the DC metro...
There's a lot of warmth available (and little cold) and cold fronts haven't scoured the gulf. When you get the jet streak to come down = tornadoes.
I'm worried this spring might be a bad tornado year.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Your local National Weather Service office is your best source for weather information.
Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
TheProfessor wrote:I'm worried this spring might be a bad tornado year.
I certainly hope not. North Texas experienced once of it's worst tornado years last year. The most since at least 1994 if not longer. Too many fatalities and too much damage overall.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- gboudx
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
Steve McCauley is on the 1957/58 analog for this Super Nino. According to him, the Spring of 58 had fewer than average tornados but it only takes 1 to be a disaster.
Here's more from him regarding 57/58 and 15/16.
Is history repeating itself? So far it is!!
A strong El Nino in 1957-1958 is eerily matching the weather patterns of our current strong El Nino of 2015-2016.
Numerous storms (including the Dallas tornado) in the spring of 1957 brought flooding rains that ended a multi-year drought. The spring of 2015 brought record rainfall that ended the north Texas drought.
A dry summer was followed by an unusually wet Autumn both in 1957 and 2015.
The winter of 1957-58 saw near to slightly below normal precipitation. This matches the current winter season as we end the month of February.
So can we expect our weather pattern to continue to mimic that of 1957-1958? And if so, just what happened in the spring of 1958?
WELL ABOVE NORMAL rainfall was recorded in north Texas during the spring of 1958! Will the spring of 2016 follow suit?
Well, as if on cue, our next big storm system arrives next Tuesday - the meteorological start to spring - promising to bring heavy to possibly severe thunderstorms to north Texas. Which parts of north Texas will get the heaviest weather is not clear at this time, so stay tuned!
Here's more from him regarding 57/58 and 15/16.
Is history repeating itself? So far it is!!
A strong El Nino in 1957-1958 is eerily matching the weather patterns of our current strong El Nino of 2015-2016.
Numerous storms (including the Dallas tornado) in the spring of 1957 brought flooding rains that ended a multi-year drought. The spring of 2015 brought record rainfall that ended the north Texas drought.
A dry summer was followed by an unusually wet Autumn both in 1957 and 2015.
The winter of 1957-58 saw near to slightly below normal precipitation. This matches the current winter season as we end the month of February.
So can we expect our weather pattern to continue to mimic that of 1957-1958? And if so, just what happened in the spring of 1958?
WELL ABOVE NORMAL rainfall was recorded in north Texas during the spring of 1958! Will the spring of 2016 follow suit?
Well, as if on cue, our next big storm system arrives next Tuesday - the meteorological start to spring - promising to bring heavy to possibly severe thunderstorms to north Texas. Which parts of north Texas will get the heaviest weather is not clear at this time, so stay tuned!
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
TheProfessor wrote:Ntxw wrote:Brent wrote:this winter has been so weird everywhere... it's February 24th and there are tornado watches in NEW JERSEY and tornadoes on the ground in VIRGINIA... Hail and gusty winds reported in the DC metro...
There's a lot of warmth available (and little cold) and cold fronts haven't scoured the gulf. When you get the jet streak to come down = tornadoes.
I'm worried this spring might be a bad tornado year.
I've been thinking the same thing(and so have a few of my chaser friends), but honestly I still think the spring might be cool and wet... of course... that doesn't stop tornadoes, all we need is a warm couple days, and it only takes one to be bad, but yeah...
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#neversummer
Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
As we follow closely what happens to bring in March lets look at what will now be one of the warmest meteorological winters (DJF) as categorized by the NWS. Feb is going to end up much above normal anywhere from 5-6F, about as impressively warm as December was for Texas. DFW is currently 51.9F for the winter average which ties 4th warmest winter on record. only 16 freezes (14 is the record low amount) With 70s to round out the rest of the month it will likely finish 4th. Likely the warmest winter since 1999-2000 (warmest). And by far is the warmest El Nino winter we've ever had.
I don't think anybody had a top 5 warmest winter in the forecast for us...there is no way to sugar coat it. After 2009-2010 we all looked at El Nino and got excited at the aspect of good winters...no more will be that be so as 2015-2016 El Nino taught us a lesson in humility. There is a such as too much of a good thing. The EPO abandoned us this winter, and the Nino took the cold away. The only period with any meaningful -EPO was early January, thus of the 3 months DJF January ended up as the coolest relative to the other 2. December and Feb was predominately +EPO.
I don't think anybody had a top 5 warmest winter in the forecast for us...there is no way to sugar coat it. After 2009-2010 we all looked at El Nino and got excited at the aspect of good winters...no more will be that be so as 2015-2016 El Nino taught us a lesson in humility. There is a such as too much of a good thing. The EPO abandoned us this winter, and the Nino took the cold away. The only period with any meaningful -EPO was early January, thus of the 3 months DJF January ended up as the coolest relative to the other 2. December and Feb was predominately +EPO.
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
Amazing! It was 60 degerees at 4pm yesterday afternoon and now we have this. http://imgur.com/RXMaLlT it's nit much, but it's better than nothing
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
Hey Professor, congrats on the snow! Hope you see some more before this winter ends.
Enjoyed seeing that photo this morning...you know...before Heat Miser dispenses with his daily dose of "It's not going to snow in Texas."
Enjoyed seeing that photo this morning...you know...before Heat Miser dispenses with his daily dose of "It's not going to snow in Texas."
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
This fell on my coat. http://imgur.com/wlvzRbx there was an even better one but it faded. This is actually the first time in my life I've seen one of the geometrical shapes of snow in real life. I've only seen pitctures before.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
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- TheProfessor
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
Also I would pay attention to the Ukmet, it's nailed the last 2 storms here, it had a cutter when all the other models were showing an east coast storm or an ots. The 0z run last night had the low digging all the way to Northern Mexico with a 1030 high near the Canadian border.
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An alumnus of The Ohio State University.
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- gboudx
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
A few years ago I was able to capture some great pics of snowflakes. They're beautiful little creations when seen up close.
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- Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016
TheProfessor wrote:This fell on my coat. http://imgur.com/wlvzRbx there was an even better one but it faded. This is actually the first time in my life I've seen one of the geometrical shapes of snow in real life. I've only seen pitctures before.
Totally cool!!!
Or totally cold I guess.
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