Texas Winter 2015-2016

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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3561 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 24, 2016 6:54 am

It really makes me sad that I've missed good snow storms to my way west, my less west, my south, my north and my east. Some cases I was 2-3 counties away from 8+ inches :x Next week might be my last shot, the models seem to be setting me up for heartbreak once again. :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3562 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 24, 2016 8:47 am

TheProfessor wrote:It really makes me sad that I've missed good snow storms to my way west, my less west, my south, my north and my east. Some cases I was 2-3 counties away from 8+ inches :x Next week might be my last shot, the models seem to be setting me up for heartbreak once again. :(


You should get a little snow on the back side of this system. Next couple of storms pass to your north. I checked my rain gauge last night when I got home and saw 1.59" between Monday morning & Tuesday afternoon.

Hey! Great news for Texas snow lovers! The GFS is predicting snow down to Austin.

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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3563 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 24, 2016 9:13 am

Euro has like a foot of snow up near the falls a little over a week from now at 0z lets see how long that lasts
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3564 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Feb 24, 2016 9:38 am

Sigh. The Winter of Wxman's Delight. Sigh. The models tease us. He taunts us. Then poof, it is gone.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3565 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Feb 24, 2016 9:45 am

Ntxw wrote:Euro has like a foot of snow up near the falls a little over a week from now at 0z lets see how long that lasts

Im sure it will verify! Ha! As cool as that would be to see to end a uneventful winter up here, I'll believe it when I see it falling.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3566 Postby dhweather » Wed Feb 24, 2016 10:20 am

48 hour totals in heath - 2.27" :D woohoo!!!

Almost three times as much as we had seen all year, of .83"

Hopefully it doesn't wait another month or two to rain again.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3567 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 24, 2016 10:32 am

I would be lying if I said I didn't enjoy the rain. It definitely feels like Texas right now. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3568 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 24, 2016 10:37 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro has like a foot of snow up near the falls a little over a week from now at 0z lets see how long that lasts

Im sure it will verify! Ha! As cool as that would be to see to end a uneventful winter up here, I'll believe it when I see it falling.


The falls has seen some snow at least, 2.5 on two separate events. The rest of us in the I-35 and I-45 corridors have seen basically nothing
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3569 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:14 am

Ntxw wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro has like a foot of snow up near the falls a little over a week from now at 0z lets see how long that lasts

Im sure it will verify! Ha! As cool as that would be to see to end a uneventful winter up here, I'll believe it when I see it falling.


The falls has seen some snow at least, 2.5 on two separate events. The rest of us in the I-35 and I-45 corridors have seen basically nothing

That is true. This area seems to usually squeeze at least a couple events each winter. I don't know if it's the area of tx we are located or what or if it has to do anything with our location to the river. Our last one was a nice snow, we all just wish it would have stayed on the ground for more than 2 hours! Even though the chances seem slim I am hoping we can squeeze one more out of winter before the blowtorch of summer starts. Working outside everyday is a lot more enjoyable in cooler weather, summer is always miserable.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3570 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:26 am

You guys might want to keep an eye out on next week's storm, could be interesting if it continues to dig.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3571 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 24, 2016 11:42 am

TheProfessor wrote:You guys might want to keep an eye out on next week's storm, could be interesting if it continues to dig.


12z GFS has a similar storm as Euro but snow confined to Oklahoma. If we can get a similar track as this recent one, I do see some semblance of a good HP to the north for CAA
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3572 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:07 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:You guys might want to keep an eye out on next week's storm, could be interesting if it continues to dig.


12z GFS has a similar storm as Euro but snow confined to Oklahoma. If we can get a similar track as this recent one, I do see some semblance of a good HP to the north for CAA

If we can get a storm with a similar setup, and even a 1030 mb high on the Plains we could eek out some snow. We can hope at least, there is nothing else interesting weather-wise right now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3573 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:28 pm

I'm rooting for the high pressure, although it would puts me at risk of suppression at least if the storm were to cut there would be more cold air to work with.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3574 Postby Tireman4 » Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:30 pm

Off topic, how are your classes Professor? Any met courses yet?

On topic, yes I hope it does verify. If not snow, I will take cold temperatures. Wxman 57 did say March "could" be cold.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3575 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:37 pm

Perfect setup for snow in DFW area yesterday, no dice. So sad. Next winter, mother nature owes us one. I think we should start planning for summer/fall/winter ideas now. Focussing on what nino will do. Maybe it hangs a little bit around and is a modoki nino year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3576 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:44 pm

Just for curiosity I took a quick look at our latest snow ever (2007/04/07). Looks like it was +PNA, slightly -NAO, -AO and -EPO with an active STJ below. I fully expected that we would see snow from this type setup this season, but no dice so hoping for dynamics alone to salvage the season now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3577 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 24, 2016 12:51 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:Just for curiosity I took a quick look at our latest snow ever (2007/04/07). Looks like it was +PNA, slightly -NAO, -AO and -EPO with an active STJ below. I fully expected that we would see snow from this type setup this season, but no dice so hoping for dynamics alone to salvage the season now.


We can overcome a +PNA with a deep low/trof underneath from the SW. Biggest recurring problem this year is lack of meaningful cold. Not talking about the 40s in rain, the real anomalies, sub-40 days with brisk north winds. When was the last time we had a decent front blasting?
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3578 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 24, 2016 1:46 pm

Tireman4 wrote:Off topic, how are your classes Professor? Any met courses yet?

On topic, yes I hope it does verify. If not snow, I will take cold temperatures. Wxman 57 did say March "could" be cold.


I'm taking my GE classes right now, it's going okay for now. I'm planning on starting met classes next spring when I'm finished with the pre reqs. Though I will take one in the fall if I'm able to.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3579 Postby wxman57 » Wed Feb 24, 2016 2:57 pm

No big surprise, the 12Z Euro dropped the snow event near Wichita Falls next week in favor of a Panhandle event.

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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3580 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Feb 24, 2016 3:42 pm

Earlier today, Norman NWS (the office with forecasting duties for the Wichita Falls region) had this to say about next week's potential storm:

"FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE IN
DEPICTING A POSSIBLY IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
LARGELY MAINTAINED BLENDED GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES INCREASING
CHANCES OF MOISTURE/PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY."
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