Texas Winter 2015-2016

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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3581 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 24, 2016 4:44 pm

Forbes has a torcon of 3 and 4 in the Panhandle down to WIchita Falls and western OK already for Tuesday...
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3582 Postby Portastorm » Wed Feb 24, 2016 5:04 pm

I'll tell you what ... if that 12z Euro op run verifies for the middle of next week, we're going to have one heckuva severe weather outbreak in Texas. :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3583 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 24, 2016 5:20 pm

Portastorm wrote:I'll tell you what ... if that 12z Euro op run verifies for the middle of next week, we're going to have one heckuva severe weather outbreak in Texas. :eek:


Definitely another big widespread rain event regardless...
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3584 Postby dhweather » Wed Feb 24, 2016 5:22 pm

FWD AFD:

THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS LATE TUESDAY. THE GFS KEEPS
AN OPEN TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF ON THE OTHER HAND...INDICATES THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF OVER PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THEN SLOWY SINK SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS DIFERENCES IN THE MODELS WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN WE
RECEIVE...BUT IN EITHER CASE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. OF
COURSE...THERE WILL BE A LOT MORE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IF
THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3585 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 24, 2016 5:28 pm

March in like a Lion. Looks like we have the storm train rolling.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3586 Postby JDawg512 » Wed Feb 24, 2016 5:35 pm

1.32 in fell here at my house. Not bad considering the long dry period we've seen. Looking forward to the next round. :slime:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3587 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 24, 2016 6:07 pm

Ntxw wrote:March in like a Lion. Looks like we have the storm train rolling.


I would say that I would bring some cold air down with me when I go on break on March 11th, but there's not much to work with here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3588 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 24, 2016 6:14 pm

this winter has been so weird everywhere... it's February 24th and there are tornado watches in NEW JERSEY and tornadoes on the ground in VIRGINIA... :double: Hail and gusty winds reported in the DC metro...
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3589 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:54 pm

Brent wrote:this winter has been so weird everywhere... it's February 24th and there are tornado watches in NEW JERSEY and tornadoes on the ground in VIRGINIA... :double: Hail and gusty winds reported in the DC metro...


There's a lot of warmth available (and little cold) and cold fronts haven't scoured the gulf. When you get the jet streak to come down = tornadoes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3590 Postby TheProfessor » Wed Feb 24, 2016 7:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:this winter has been so weird everywhere... it's February 24th and there are tornado watches in NEW JERSEY and tornadoes on the ground in VIRGINIA... :double: Hail and gusty winds reported in the DC metro...


There's a lot of warmth available (and little cold) and cold fronts haven't scoured the gulf. When you get the jet streak to come down = tornadoes.


I'm worried this spring might be a bad tornado year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3591 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 24, 2016 8:12 pm

TheProfessor wrote:I'm worried this spring might be a bad tornado year.


I certainly hope not. North Texas experienced once of it's worst tornado years last year. The most since at least 1994 if not longer. Too many fatalities and too much damage overall.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3592 Postby gboudx » Wed Feb 24, 2016 8:51 pm

Steve McCauley is on the 1957/58 analog for this Super Nino. According to him, the Spring of 58 had fewer than average tornados but it only takes 1 to be a disaster.

Here's more from him regarding 57/58 and 15/16.

Is history repeating itself? So far it is!!
A strong El Nino in 1957-1958 is eerily matching the weather patterns of our current strong El Nino of 2015-2016.
Numerous storms (including the Dallas tornado) in the spring of 1957 brought flooding rains that ended a multi-year drought. The spring of 2015 brought record rainfall that ended the north Texas drought.

A dry summer was followed by an unusually wet Autumn both in 1957 and 2015.

The winter of 1957-58 saw near to slightly below normal precipitation. This matches the current winter season as we end the month of February.

So can we expect our weather pattern to continue to mimic that of 1957-1958? And if so, just what happened in the spring of 1958?

WELL ABOVE NORMAL rainfall was recorded in north Texas during the spring of 1958! Will the spring of 2016 follow suit?
Well, as if on cue, our next big storm system arrives next Tuesday - the meteorological start to spring - promising to bring heavy to possibly severe thunderstorms to north Texas. Which parts of north Texas will get the heaviest weather is not clear at this time, so stay tuned!
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3593 Postby Brent » Wed Feb 24, 2016 9:37 pm

TheProfessor wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:this winter has been so weird everywhere... it's February 24th and there are tornado watches in NEW JERSEY and tornadoes on the ground in VIRGINIA... :double: Hail and gusty winds reported in the DC metro...


There's a lot of warmth available (and little cold) and cold fronts haven't scoured the gulf. When you get the jet streak to come down = tornadoes.


I'm worried this spring might be a bad tornado year.


I've been thinking the same thing(and so have a few of my chaser friends), but honestly I still think the spring might be cool and wet... of course... that doesn't stop tornadoes, all we need is a warm couple days, and it only takes one to be bad, but yeah...
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3594 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 25, 2016 12:20 am

As we follow closely what happens to bring in March lets look at what will now be one of the warmest meteorological winters (DJF) as categorized by the NWS. Feb is going to end up much above normal anywhere from 5-6F, about as impressively warm as December was for Texas. DFW is currently 51.9F for the winter average which ties 4th warmest winter on record. only 16 freezes (14 is the record low amount) With 70s to round out the rest of the month it will likely finish 4th. Likely the warmest winter since 1999-2000 (warmest). And by far is the warmest El Nino winter we've ever had.

I don't think anybody had a top 5 warmest winter in the forecast for us...there is no way to sugar coat it. After 2009-2010 we all looked at El Nino and got excited at the aspect of good winters...no more will be that be so as 2015-2016 El Nino taught us a lesson in humility. There is a such as too much of a good thing. The EPO abandoned us this winter, and the Nino took the cold away. The only period with any meaningful -EPO was early January, thus of the 3 months DJF January ended up as the coolest relative to the other 2. December and Feb was predominately +EPO.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3595 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:56 am

Amazing! It was 60 degerees at 4pm yesterday afternoon and now we have this. http://imgur.com/RXMaLlT it's nit much, but it's better than nothing
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3596 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:13 am

Hey Professor, congrats on the snow! Hope you see some more before this winter ends.

Enjoyed seeing that photo this morning...you know...before Heat Miser dispenses with his daily dose of "It's not going to snow in Texas." :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3597 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:21 am

This fell on my coat. http://imgur.com/wlvzRbx there was an even better one but it faded. This is actually the first time in my life I've seen one of the geometrical shapes of snow in real life. I've only seen pitctures before.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3598 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:28 am

Also I would pay attention to the Ukmet, it's nailed the last 2 storms here, it had a cutter when all the other models were showing an east coast storm or an ots. The 0z run last night had the low digging all the way to Northern Mexico with a 1030 high near the Canadian border.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3599 Postby gboudx » Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:30 am

A few years ago I was able to capture some great pics of snowflakes. They're beautiful little creations when seen up close.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3600 Postby Texas Snowman » Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:32 am

TheProfessor wrote:This fell on my coat. http://imgur.com/wlvzRbx there was an even better one but it faded. This is actually the first time in my life I've seen one of the geometrical shapes of snow in real life. I've only seen pitctures before.


Totally cool!!!

Or totally cold I guess. :D
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