Texas Winter 2015-2016

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Ralph's Weather
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3601 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:57 am

gboudx wrote:A few years ago I was able to capture some great pics of snowflakes. They're beautiful little creations when seen up close.

March 3, 2014 had some awesome geometric snowflakes.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3602 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 25, 2016 1:30 pm

I can't believe wxman57 hasn't posted the 12z GFS yet...

92 degrees at San Antonio, 89 degrees at Austin and DFW on March 10th... :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3603 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Feb 25, 2016 2:10 pm

Brent wrote:I can't believe wxman57 hasn't posted the 12z GFS yet...

92 degrees at San Antonio, 89 degrees at Austin and DFW on March 10th... :lol:


I fly into DFW on the 11th, I really hope I don't see any 90s while I'm there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3604 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 25, 2016 2:13 pm

Models trending north, and east with storm and cold air early next week #PNA
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3605 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 25, 2016 2:25 pm

Brent wrote:I can't believe wxman57 hasn't posted the 12z GFS yet...

92 degrees at San Antonio, 89 degrees at Austin and DFW on March 10th... :lol:


I'm not one to rub it in or gloat. :onfire:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3606 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Feb 25, 2016 2:50 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:I can't believe wxman57 hasn't posted the 12z GFS yet...

92 degrees at San Antonio, 89 degrees at Austin and DFW on March 10th... :lol:


I'm not one to rub it in or gloat. :onfire:


Yeah. Yeah. Yeah....groannnnnn
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3607 Postby dhweather » Thu Feb 25, 2016 2:59 pm

FWD AFD

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE FRONT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE EXTENDED MODELS VERIFY THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR SOME MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
BEFORE INCREASING POPS AND PINPOINTING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. THIS SHOULD PREVENT SOME PEOPLE FROM RIDING THEIR
BICYCLES IN THEIR YELLOW SPEEDO THONGS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3608 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 25, 2016 3:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Brent wrote:I can't believe wxman57 hasn't posted the 12z GFS yet...

92 degrees at San Antonio, 89 degrees at Austin and DFW on March 10th... :lol:


I'm not one to rub it in or gloat. :onfire:

Haha. It's to the point now where there is no point in gloating. It's over, winter is done. Time for a slow warm up that leads us to spring storms and baseball. I do hope the GFS is wrong though, that is way too hot this soon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3609 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Feb 25, 2016 3:07 pm

dhweather wrote:FWD AFD

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE FRONT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE EXTENDED MODELS VERIFY THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR SOME MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
BEFORE INCREASING POPS AND PINPOINTING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. THIS SHOULD PREVENT SOME PEOPLE FROM RIDING THEIR
BICYCLES IN THEIR YELLOW SPEEDO THONGS.


I had to do a double take to make sure I was reading that right. It meshed perfectly with the rest of the discussion. :roflmao:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3610 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Feb 25, 2016 3:11 pm

Funny stuff dhweather. The prevention of yellow Speedo thongs is a great thing. The citizens of Houston just breathed a sigh of relief.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3611 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 25, 2016 3:22 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:I had to do a double take to make sure I was reading that right. It meshed perfectly with the rest of the discussion.


Apparently, they know me up at the Fort Worth NWS office. I did have a black & yellow "skin-suit" that I used to wear in time trials when I was racing. I swear, on one time trial I had two bumble bees land on me at two points along the time trial course! I must have looked like their queen. I looked something like the image below. In fact, that guy almost looks as good as me...

As for this winter, I was quite fearful of the coming winter back in October/November. El Nino winters are typically quite miserable (for me) in Houston. Plenty of days with rain and highs in the 30s-40s. I did think that the pattern would change to cold/rainy/icy after December. However, to my surprise (and delight), we've had quite a pleasant winter in January & February, and March promises to be even better.

Isn't it a great winter when the most exciting thing to discuss is my cycling attire?

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3612 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 25, 2016 4:58 pm

dhweather wrote:FWD AFD

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS SUNDAY
NIGHT AFTER AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE FRONT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST ZONES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY AND MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
STRONG DYNAMICS WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IF THE EXTENDED MODELS VERIFY THIS SYSTEM COULD
BRING SOME STRONG STORMS TO THE REGION TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...
BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR SOME MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
BEFORE INCREASING POPS AND PINPOINTING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

THE UPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE RED
RIVER. OTHERWISE...WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE WINDY AND COOL WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. THIS SHOULD PREVENT SOME PEOPLE FROM RIDING THEIR
BICYCLES IN THEIR YELLOW SPEEDO THONGS.


:roflmao:

That was good
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3613 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Feb 25, 2016 5:54 pm

As far as this year's winter is concerned,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9xQlcvNlxg
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3614 Postby hriverajr » Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:38 pm

I make a motion that we just move to the spring thread now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3615 Postby Brent » Thu Feb 25, 2016 7:49 pm

aggiecutter wrote:As far as this year's winter is concerned,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X9xQlcvNlxg


I was thinking this too...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A

and I second the motion on moving to the spring thread... even though there may be frost around here tonight... :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3616 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 25, 2016 8:32 pm

If there is no imminent danger of winter weather early next week then I don't see why we shouldn't move over to the spring thread for MAM (March-April-May). Euro weeklies looks nice at 500mb but we've seen it time and time again no matter how good 500mb looks this year the surface will suck. No cold source, and as far as I can tell the +PNA persists.

Stamp this the winter of Wxman57's satisfaction and be rid of it asap :lol:

Reanalysis shows clearly, the El Nino induced NPAC low overwhelmed everything. You can see the stark difference S/SW of Alaska compared to the great winter of 2013-2014.

2015-2016
Image

2013-2014
Image

High latitude blocking in Canada and the Arctic meant nothing. Going back I definitely should've paid more weight into 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 the other two >2C Nino's
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3617 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:26 am

Already have a heavy frost here. Winter is back! :roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3618 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 26, 2016 12:43 am

Man... the GFS has REALLY gone dry today... hope this isn't a trend... the Tuesday storm is barely anything now... and through 240 hours only a couple tenths of an inch of rain.

It did lose the extreme heat wave in the LR at least... and actually, temps are largely near normal or below normal through the run
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3619 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 26, 2016 9:39 am

No signs of La Nina at the surface yet as the atmosphere and SST's are coupled well with El Nino. However, we can see the emergence of a potential La Nina below. Lurking beneath the surface the thermocline shift has begun. This does not yet mean a full blown Nina to be yet, as it will need help from easterlies to propel it upwards. It will be a slow process many months in the making. More on fading Nino transition Nina year statistics in the spring thread next week I hope If I can get it all together this weekend.

Image

I know many people in Texas cringe at the sound of La Nina but this is not true in every case just as this Nino was a torch winter. There are both cold, and wet La Nina years such as 1973-1974 and 1983-1984. La Nina's are best served their first year, it's when they string together back to back that we go into multiyear droughts. Usually the second year Nina's are the worst ala 1999-2000 and 2011-2012. Summer 2011 was amidst a second year Nina.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3620 Postby gboudx » Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:07 am

Steve McCauley has zeriod in on the 57/58 Strong Nino as most comparable to 15/16. Do we know what ENSO transitioned to after 57/58?

Edit: I did my own research and it looks like 58/59 was a weak Nino to neutral.
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