Texas Winter 2015-2016

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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3621 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:18 am

I'm Ready for a Nina Winter! I just hope it's not like a 2nd year Nina a la 2011-2012, I've heard that was a bad winter for snow lovers just about every where in the U.S.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3622 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:37 am

1958-1959 was a weak Nino. In terms if circulation timing its similar but 57-58 was a much weaker enso event comparable more to 2009-10 than 2015-16. 1957 barely made the 1.5C threshold for strong consideration so its really borderline. Its closer to 2009's 1.3C than 2015's 2.3C. A lot more warm water has been used up vs 1957, so another Nino is less likely
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3623 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:51 am

Had a nice frost this morning on everything with 28 degree low at my house. It sure is warming up quick this morning up to around 50 now. Just a reminder that winter still has some hold on us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3624 Postby dhweather » Fri Feb 26, 2016 4:32 pm

It's only two weeks out!

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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3625 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 26, 2016 4:47 pm

If you'll look closely, there's a Cat 5 crossing the loop current in the Gulf. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3626 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 26, 2016 6:39 pm

@BigJoeBastardi: Stated many times this winter far from over,California to Carolina jet under Canadian ridge will make for major forecast challenges in March.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3627 Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 26, 2016 6:41 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:@BigJoeBastardi: Stated many times this winter far from over,California to Carolina jet under Canadian ridge will make for major forecast challenges in March.


He's proven that already by continuing to forecast a snow storm from Dallas to Atlanta. ;-)

Love all that read on the map, dhweather!
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3628 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:54 pm

Touché
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3629 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 26, 2016 7:57 pm

LOL

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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3630 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 26, 2016 8:58 pm

Jb has done decent on the 500mb pattern. Especially MS river and east, however he has been reluctant to accept the fact that anomalous cold near the surface has been mediocre. When a "cold front" in a deep trough barely gets to freezing for lows and back to 50/60s the next day that's hardly impressive for fall no less winter. Until wxman57 has to put away the speedo, I'm not impressed!

Euro through 10 days has no meaningful cold air, that gets us through the first week of March. Currently it is in the 30s/40s and even 50s in W and NW Canada...that is abnormally warm.

Another dud milestone, if DFW does not hit freezing again, Feb 7th would've been the last date this winter which is second earliest last freeze. The airport still has not gone below 27F which is the highest winter low on record (25).

As you can see from this SST map, the NPAC NEPAC warm pool of the past several winters has been essentially wiped out by the ENSO event. Only some slight warm anomalies persists off NW NA.

Image

However on a positive note, this cold pool developing may be beneficial next winter, if used right by a weak Nina.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3631 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Feb 26, 2016 9:40 pm

Care to explain how it would benefit a weak nina?
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3632 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 26, 2016 9:47 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Care to explain how it would benefit a weak nina?


The cold water is a signature mark for cold air to build in Canada, thus some of the impressive arctic blasts in La Nina's. It is the opposite of the El Nino which floods Canada with warmth. La Nina's favor Aleutian ridge vs Aleutian low. If the ridge pushes eastward into the NEPAC (pseudo -EPO) then it can dislodge that cold air. A weak Nina tends to push ridges eastward vs retrograde them. I'll have to do more re-analysis, but much like in El Nino and the Aleutian low partnership; for La Nina's movement of the Aleutian ridge is as important.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3633 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:17 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Care to explain how it would benefit a weak nina?


The cold water is a signature mark for cold air to build in Canada, thus some of the impressive arctic blasts in La Nina's. It is the opposite of the El Nino which floods Canada with warmth. La Nina's favor Aleutian ridge vs Aleutian low. If the ridge pushes eastward into the NEPAC (pseudo -EPO) then it can dislodge that cold air. A weak Nina tends to push ridges eastward vs retrograde them. I'll have to do more re-analysis, but much like in El Nino and the Aleutian low partnership; for La Nina's movement of the Aleutian ridge is as important.


La nina tends to not have such a potent upper level high in the Equatorial pacific region right? Thus not flooding us with pacific air. So, the aleutian low is not as strong correct? Or like you said, leads to a ridge instead of a low.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3634 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:20 pm

Glad we got what rain we did because it looks like this next system won't give us much if any rain at all.

March isn't looking as wet, at least the first half.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3635 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:31 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:La nina tends to not have such a potent upper level high in the Equatorial pacific region right? Thus not flooding us with pacific air. So, the aleutian low is not as strong correct? Or like you said, leads to a ridge instead of a low.


I believe so. I haven't dug too deeply on Nina events yet to say for certain. The Aleutian low doesn't really exist in La Nina, it is replaced by the Aleutian high. Thus as the cold water builds eastward, a new warm pool develops from the Aleutian high (water warms underneath ridges) behind it. There is a lot of reshuffling on misconceptions we've had about El Nino and la Nina, warm and cold pools in the NPAC and their relationships over the years regarding Texas. The only persistent rock is that El Nino favors overall wet years, and La Nina's overall dry years. In terms of winter and summer temps the effects can be adverse. Also the PNA relationship as well, El Nino likes +PNA and La Nina likes -PNA, the stronger the event the stronger the PNA accordingly.

I think the problem years past on clumping good vs bad misconceptions is because majority of major forecasters and media is east coast centric. Some of these ideas are true for them but not necessarily for us. We tether in the middle of the nation where too much this way goes east too much that way goes west. The past couple of winters have debunked the idea that +PNA is good for Texas. It's good for Atlanta and NYC, not us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3636 Postby TheProfessor » Fri Feb 26, 2016 10:49 pm

Ntxw wrote:
TeamPlayersBlue wrote:La nina tends to not have such a potent upper level high in the Equatorial pacific region right? Thus not flooding us with pacific air. So, the aleutian low is not as strong correct? Or like you said, leads to a ridge instead of a low.


I believe so. I haven't dug too deeply on Nina events yet to say for certain. The Aleutian low doesn't really exist in La Nina, it is replaced by the Aleutian high. Thus as the cold water builds eastward, a new warm pool develops from the Aleutian high (water warms underneath ridges) behind it. There is a lot of reshuffling on misconceptions we've had about El Nino and la Nina, warm and cold pools in the NPAC and their relationships over the years regarding Texas. The only persistent rock is that El Nino favors overall wet years, and La Nina's overall dry years. In terms of winter and summer temps the effects can be adverse. Also the PNA relationship as well, El Nino likes +PNA and La Nina likes -PNA, the stronger the event the stronger the PNA accordingly.

I think the problem years past on clumping good vs bad misconceptions is because majority of major forecasters and media is east coast centric. Some of these ideas are true for them but not necessarily for us. We tether in the middle of the nation where too much this way goes east too much that way goes west. The past couple of winters have debunked the idea that +PNA is good for Texas. It's good for Atlanta and NYC, not us.


From what I've seen described, A +PNA itself doesn't help the East Coast, Apparently it helps the East Coast when there is a sharp drop (or rise I'm not sure) in the PNA. It was described as a push, when the PNA Decreases or Increases rapidly it pushes the cold and storms east. I'm not sure what the PNA readings were in this last storm but someone on another forum said that that "push" wasn't going to happen which helped the storm cut much further west then the models had originally thought.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3637 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 26, 2016 11:57 pm

GFS showing a very wet pattern the 2nd week of March... let's see if it holds up.

Tuesday looks a little wetter now but not a big event. Temps look mostly average... no cold and no real warmth either.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3638 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 27, 2016 12:02 am

TheProfessor wrote:From what I've seen described, A +PNA itself doesn't help the East Coast, Apparently it helps the East Coast when there is a sharp drop (or rise I'm not sure) in the PNA. It was described as a push, when the PNA Decreases or Increases rapidly it pushes the cold and storms east. I'm not sure what the PNA readings were in this last storm but someone on another forum said that that "push" wasn't going to happen which helped the storm cut much further west then the models had originally thought.


The +PNA height pattern is better for the east coast than it is for Texas. The two key points in a +PNA is height rises in western NA (usually rockies) and lowering heights over the southeast US. That's the typical movement of the trof, Texas most of the time is then under NW flow or if the PNA ridge is progressive we go under ridging. For the east coast, the NAO plays a role as well, but in general +PNA is better for them than it is for us. We always wonder in Texas if the cold is going to slide east of us...at 90% of the time if the PNA is positive that is the case. Yes during the dramatic rise/drop of the PNA (and AO) is usually signal a significant storm is about to cross the country but when established movement of cold air is pretty blunt.

A really good example just happened this month. All other indexes were mostly neutral, +PNA was biggest signal...NYC hit -1F around valentines day and DFW was in the 60s and 70s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3639 Postby South Texas Storms » Sat Feb 27, 2016 12:42 am

Watch the March 7-10 time frame for a potential heavy rain maker across much of Texas. Long range models have been in pretty good agreement showing this the past few days.
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Re: Texas Winter 2015-2016

#3640 Postby Ntxw » Sat Feb 27, 2016 8:14 am

South Texas Storms wrote:Watch the March 7-10 time frame for a potential heavy rain maker across much of Texas. Long range models have been in pretty good agreement showing this the past few days.


Ensembles support your idea with reversing the PNA and trough digging into SoCal. SW flow aloft is beneficial for rains.

DFW snuck in a light freeze yesterday so my post one second earliest late freeze is no longer valid
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