SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

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chaser1
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SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

#1 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 12, 2015 3:20 am

There seems little doubt that parts of the world will witness significant impact caused by the continued heating of a growing area of Pacific equatorial waters. Here in the U.S., scientists and government officials attempt to guage the extent of severe conditions expected, based on prior major El Nino events. I thought it made sense to create a forum that offered El Nino related discussion regarding prior or new scientific predictions, media reported conditions, as well as our own individual predictions, forecasts, or observations on the subject. So here we are, nearly mid-point October 2015 and (hopefully) nearing the peak of the rising Pacific ocean temperatures.

Which El Nino anticipated weather events have or have not begun?
What evidence of major shifts to weather patterns are becoming more appearant?
How soon before these new extreme or severe conditions look imminent to occur?
Just how bad or disruptive will this El Nino end up becoming?
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Re: SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

#2 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 20, 2015 3:59 pm

:raincloud: Where's all of our super wet conditions over the far south U. S. and Florida that this super El Nino is supposted to be ushering in?? So far, this fall/winter impacting event does not seem to yet be rearing its ugly head.

In fact, I would'nt rule out a W. Caribbean or Southern Gulf tropical system from still trying to spin up sometime during November. Even with the developing tropical cyclones in the E. Pacific, they're oddly not appearing to add to an somewhat underwhelming upper level Westerly jet that one would expect in an average El Nino set up.

Months ago while looking at this looming strong El Nino, it would've been hard to argue against the Atlantic Hurricane season coming to a screatching halt beginning in early October (which perhaps it still might have), but I'm not seeing the expected subtropical split flow that would ordinarily be the cause of very strong shear and simply "lock down" any further development throughout the Caribbean or Gulf.

Rather than seeing a strong lower latitude 200mb - 500mb zonal flow pretty much stretch from the E. Pacific all the way east to Africa, the W. Atlantic and even the S. CONUS surprisingly seems to continue exhibiting areas of ridging thus causing pockets of seemingly temporary favorable conditions for tropical development. How long this will last remains to be seen, however I'm just not seeing the global models indicating the stronger southerly jet that I would've expected a strong El Nino to begin ushering in yet.

Looks like Florida will escape the next month or two of what might have been expected "cooler than normal' conditions, though this may finally arrive sometime closer to Christmas or early 2016. What about the regions where everyone lives? Are the conditions that you are experiencing seem in line with what a super strong El Nino would be expected to bring??
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#3 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Oct 20, 2015 5:07 pm

Texas is about to make up for the very dry July through most of October in one weekend with widespread 3"+ and some likely to see 12"+ totals.
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Re:

#4 Postby chaser1 » Wed Oct 21, 2015 4:06 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:Texas is about to make up for the very dry July through most of October in one weekend with widespread 3"+ and some likely to see 12"+ totals.


Well, 3" is significant however 12" + is AN EVENT! How common are excessive precipitation events there in Texas directly linked to major El Nino occurances? I'm just wondering if this expected rainfall is more indicative of a typical El Nino event or if seemingly unassociated with the fall weather patterns that usually occur during an El Nino?
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Re: SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

#5 Postby tstorm98 » Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:29 pm

chaser1 wrote::raincloud: Where's all of our super wet conditions over the far south U. S. and Florida that this super El Nino is supposted to be ushering in?? So far, this fall/winter impacting event does not seem to yet be rearing its ugly head.

In fact, I would'nt rule out a W. Caribbean or Southern Gulf tropical system from still trying to spin up sometime during November. Even with the developing tropical cyclones in the E. Pacific, they're oddly not appearing to add to an somewhat underwhelming upper level Westerly jet that one would expect in an average El Nino set up.

Months ago while looking at this looming strong El Nino, it would've been hard to argue against the Atlantic Hurricane season coming to a screatching halt beginning in early October (which perhaps it still might have), but I'm not seeing the expected subtropical split flow that would ordinarily be the cause of very strong shear and simply "lock down" any further development throughout the Caribbean or Gulf.

Rather than seeing a strong lower latitude 200mb - 500mb zonal flow pretty much stretch from the E. Pacific all the way east to Africa, the W. Atlantic and even the S. CONUS surprisingly seems to continue exhibiting areas of ridging thus causing pockets of seemingly temporary favorable conditions for tropical development. How long this will last remains to be seen, however I'm just not seeing the global models indicating the stronger southerly jet that I would've expected a strong El Nino to begin ushering in yet.

Looks like Florida will escape the next month or two of what might have been expected "cooler than normal' conditions, though this may finally arrive sometime closer to Christmas or early 2016. What about the regions where everyone lives? Are the conditions that you are experiencing seem in line with what a super strong El Nino would be expected to bring??


El Nino's main effects are mostly Dec-Mar.
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Re: SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

#6 Postby chaser1 » Fri Nov 06, 2015 1:38 pm

Interestingly, the GFS 500mb models depict this evolving El Nino to be developing greater ridging over the far east Pac and Mexico, and seemingly continue a pattern of expanding this ridging ENE over the S. Gulf eastward to build over S. Florida and the Bahamas. At the moment, looks like Florida is regressing back to October LOL.
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Re: SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

#7 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Nov 08, 2015 5:26 pm

chaser1 wrote:Interestingly, the GFS 500mb models depict this evolving El Nino to be developing greater ridging over the far east Pac and Mexico, and seemingly continue a pattern of expanding this ridging ENE over the S. Gulf eastward to build over S. Florida and the Bahamas. At the moment, looks like Florida is regressing back to October LOL.

What will it take to kill this pesky ridge?
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Re: SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

#8 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Nov 08, 2015 11:09 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Interestingly, the GFS 500mb models depict this evolving El Nino to be developing greater ridging over the far east Pac and Mexico, and seemingly continue a pattern of expanding this ridging ENE over the S. Gulf eastward to build over S. Florida and the Bahamas. At the moment, looks like Florida is regressing back to October LOL.

What will it take to kill this pesky ridge?



A negative phase of the NAO. Plain and simple.
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Re: SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

#9 Postby chaser1 » Mon Nov 09, 2015 3:56 pm

Yes often that simple, but.....

Keep in mind that this is not winter and the NAO has and can change on a dime. While it is correct that a negative NAO is more apt to bring stormy and colder conditions to Florida, cool outbreaks to Florida are not exclusive to negative NAO set ups.

Even given positive NAO events, quite often the four primary mid latitude global blocking high presure ridges will tend to shift. In fact nearer term forecasts indicate that the overall ridging over the Eastern U.S., will evolve westward to be centered over the Western U.S. Keep in mind that relatiive small shifts in the long wave pattern will cause at least cooler air to potentially be funeled southward towards the Eastern seaboard. Of course that same shift in the long wave pattern is subject to continued shifting.

Also, as of the last 3 days there have been a few meteorologists that have indicated evidence that the positive NAO conditions have peaked and evidence suggests that a shift to a negative NAO will soon occur (couple week time frame). Whether or not that timing plays out, a significant shift to a strongly negative NAO setup could spell a major shift in the type of weather Florida receives. I'm sticking to my guns that this will occur sometime closer to mid December - beginning of January 2016.
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#10 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Nov 09, 2015 5:05 pm

:uarrow: Thanks for chiming in chaser1. Yeah, I am aware of the fact that it is not only pertinent to have a negative NAO to bring cold air to. Florida. In fact, a +PNA can also help in bringing down arctic airmasses into the Eastern CONUS in winter. A negative NAO just gives Florida and much of the Eastern CONUS the best set-up for cold intrusions.

Otherwise, you msde some great points which I agree.
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#11 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 09, 2015 6:27 pm

One thing to keep in mind is that even though the GFS ensembles show the NAO going negative in the 7-14 day range is that they also show the PNA staying neutral if not slightly negative so which means that the negative NAO could be more eastern Atlantic based and not western based meaning FL may not see much of a pattern change after all, may have to wait for the PNA to go back way positive and NAO stay negative.
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Re: SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

#12 Postby Cowhide » Mon Dec 28, 2015 6:47 pm

According to this forecast map, in the next 5-7 days, the jetstream is supposedly going to split into two (polar and subtropical)and southern baja will get pounded with rain. Is this indicative of an El Niño pattern?

Image
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#13 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 29, 2015 7:54 pm

Anomalous rainfall will come with a STJ (pineapple) express system hitting California in the Jan 8-12th period. Hit especially hard will be southern California where several inches of rain will fall with winds and waves before kicking out into the southern plains.

Much of the Sierra's are more than 100% capacity to date. Very welcome news as their water year is off to a great start

Image
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Re: SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

#14 Postby Ptarmigan » Tue Dec 29, 2015 11:25 pm

I think we could see more severe weather.
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Re: SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

#15 Postby Cowhide » Thu Dec 31, 2015 2:26 pm

The first hint of the el niño storm activity is as mentioned, the jet stream might split into two parts

The first round will just be a tease it looks like,...
Image

The second round is a little more interesting: cold polar air will meet with subtropical air causing an explosion of storm activity in California.
However with it being a warmer storm, snow levels will be in the 7000+ foot range.
Image

Is the pineapple express officially open for business? Only time will tell...
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Re: SUPER EL NINO 2015/2016 Weather Event Forecasts & Prediction

#16 Postby chaser1 » Fri Jan 01, 2016 1:51 am

No doubt, that we are just now beginning to see that southern split branch of the sub tropical jet and more El Nino like conditions beginning to take hold over the Southern tier of the U.S. Good or bad, California and the Southwest in general will reallyl begin to see some wet storms move in off the Pacific. Likewise, those of us along the Gulf states and Florida will soon need heed severe weather risks as we come a bit closer to February.
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#17 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 01, 2016 1:02 pm

Some 5+ inch rainfall bullseye's are looking good for parts of Northern California and several inches even into Southern California. Sierra's snows are near to above normal to date. California's drought map is about to go an about drastic change! Really feeling good for the Golden State. Just have to watch those mudslides.

This will likely make news stories in the coming weeks
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