Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#41 Postby RL3AO » Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:50 pm

Many of the central US NWS offices are doing 4x a day weather balloon launches as well.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#42 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:59 pm

Wow, if this pans out...this 'could" be historic.....
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#43 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 21, 2016 3:27 pm

Our developing winter storm is organizing quite well this afternoon, with the surface Low now just east of Dallas, TX, moving due east. This is a very dynamical system, already producing tornadic cells across the ARKLATEX region, and this storm is really going to deepen as it moves across the South East U.S. the next 24 hours. The system will then re-develop off the coast of the Carolinas and move to just off the Mid-Atlantic region late Friday into Saturday. This storm could live up to its billing indeed and be one of these all-timer events for the Mid -Atlantic region for sure looking at the latest guidance from the models. The snowfall totals on NAM model runs for the Northern areas of Virginia into the interior areas of Maryland and the surburbs outside of Washington, DC are just mind blowing , with totals estimated between 30-40 inches projected in those areas by the end of the event by Sunday. Incredible!!!!
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#44 Postby angelwing » Thu Jan 21, 2016 4:35 pm

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Blizzard Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1037 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ016>019-PAZ070-071-102-104-106-
220445-
/O.CAN.KPHI.WS.A.0001.160123T0000Z-160124T1500Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.BZ.A.0001.160123T0000Z-160124T1500Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
EASTERN CHESTER-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...
WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
1037 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHERN DELAWARE...AND MARYLAND`S UPPER EASTERN SHORE.

* HAZARD TYPES...POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH HEAVY
SNOW...STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...12 TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH FRIDAY EVENING... PRIMARILY AFTER THE EVENING COMMUTE...
THEN CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL BE ON SATURDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS
COULD PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. SNOW MAY BE DRY AND FLUFFY AT THE START... BUT WILL
BECOME WETTER AND HEAVIER AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. SHOVELING MAY BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW MAY CLING TO
WIRES AND TREES WHICH COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS POWER OUTAGES. ROADS
WILL BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING SNOW ACCUMULATION
DURING THE EVENT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES.
THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY
DANGEROUS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTAL
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE
AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER


&&
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#45 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:22 pm

The 18Z GFS shifted a bit south and east for accumulating snow, now showing possible 2-3 inch snow fall totals east to the near the coast of North Carolina and south into the Northern Midlands of South Carolina.

Image

Also, the GFS not as bullish as the NAM with the snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic with the latest run showing 20-30 inches across the bullseye areas of Northern VA, Maryland, to extreme SE PA. This is still very impressive, but a bit more conservative compared to the NAM, which showed 30-40 inches possible in those same aforementioned areas.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#46 Postby RL3AO » Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:15 am

This really is looking like the potential storm of the decade. Here's a cross section from DC (KIAD) from the 18z GFS.

Image

The red lines are upward vertical motion, yellow lines show where the dendritic growth zone (-18 to -12°C) is saturated, and time goes from right to left on the bottom. Where those intersect is a good estimation of when heavy snow will be falling.

You can see 24 to 36 hours of snowfall in DC with at least 12 hours supporting 1 to 3" per hour. I really do think there will be some isolated 36" totals in Virginia and/or Maryland.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#47 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:43 am

GFS just showed about as much snow as DC can ever wish to see. 30+ inches, someone in there goes over 40-50". Thats a helluva QPF bomb in snow...may go down as the biggest snowstorm ever for the nation's capital.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#48 Postby Tireman4 » Fri Jan 22, 2016 1:26 pm

If it verifies, my gracious. I have folks that live in NC ( I miss it..darn Texas in August) that are getting snow now....
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#49 Postby xironman » Sat Jan 23, 2016 7:01 am

Winds around 50kts with gusts to 62 in Delaware http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=lwsd1
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#50 Postby angelwing » Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:30 pm

Just got down shoveling 24 inches of snow...and its still snowing :D
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#51 Postby angelwing » Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:32 pm

Blizzard Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE TO HAMMER THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND
EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING HEAVY SNOW...STRONG WINDS...AND
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF OUR AREA.

DEZ001-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ009-010-012-015>019-PAZ070-071-
101>106-240400-
/O.CON.KPHI.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1100Z/
NEW CASTLE-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-HUNTERDON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-
NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-
EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-
LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...
CENTREVILLE...EASTON...DENTON...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...
NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...
CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA...
HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNETT SQUARE...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...
PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
954 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW...GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW
RESULTING IN TIMES OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...15 TO 20 INCHES SOUTH AND EAST OF
PHILADELPHIA. 20 TO 25 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
30 INCHES FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH AND WESTWARD.


* TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES TODAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF LATE TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL PRODUCE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES AND EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS TRAVEL. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME MORE WET FOR A TIME
TODAY... ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHOVELING OF HEAVY WET
SNOW WILL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW
WILL CLING TO WIRES AND TREES WHICH COULD CAUSE NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES. ROADS WILL BE IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING SNOWFALL
RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIEST BANDS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE-QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. AVOID TRAVEL IF
AT ALL POSSIBLE. IF YOU ABSOLUTELY MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER
SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR
VEHICLE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS FOR THE LATEST EVENT ARE
AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

$$
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#52 Postby Tireman4 » Sat Jan 23, 2016 4:55 pm

It is really piling up now. Gracious.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#53 Postby xironman » Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:28 am

The pool is about 4.5 feet tall

Image
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#54 Postby One Eye » Sun Jan 24, 2016 9:41 am

Unbelievable at the amount of snow yall have received!
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#55 Postby Bizzles » Sun Jan 24, 2016 10:37 am

That was awesome! 24+ hours of constant snow! We got a little over 24" here...snow blower made quick work of it yesterday but looks like another inch or so fell overnight so still a bit of cleaning to do! Stay warm peeps! :froze:
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#56 Postby xironman » Sun Jan 24, 2016 4:08 pm

35" here.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#57 Postby angelwing » Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:05 pm

23 here
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#58 Postby South Texas Storms » Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:11 pm

xironman wrote:35" here.


Where is "here"? You don't have your location listed so no one knows where 35 inches of snow fell.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#59 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Jan 24, 2016 7:45 pm

14 inches, according to the local news.

That probably isn't much compared to some places, but it's my first big snowfall since moving here last summer.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Winter Weather 2015-2016

#60 Postby xironman » Mon Jan 25, 2016 2:52 am

South Texas Storms wrote:
xironman wrote:35" here.


Where is "here"? You don't have your location listed so no one knows where 35 inches of snow fell.


Yeah that's odd, I thought it used to say NoVA, but Northern VA, outside of Berryville.
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