New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#1 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Nov 16, 2015 1:47 pm

With winter nearly upon us I'm posting this all purpose thread for the region. Lets all hope we don't have another winter season like the past several which featured prolonged bitter cold and mountains of snow & ice.

:cold: :froze:
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#2 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Nov 25, 2015 9:57 pm

First widespread measurable snowfall fell across interior Maine and New Brunswick Sunday night into Monday. Check out details at my weather blog -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/2015_11_24_archive.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#3 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Dec 10, 2015 11:11 am

Summary of the snowstorm we experienced last week -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/2015_12_04_archive.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Bizzles
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 456
Age: 33
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 10:22 am
Location: Columbus, NJ

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#4 Postby Bizzles » Mon Dec 14, 2015 10:51 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Summary of the snowstorm we experienced last week -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/2015_12_04_archive.html


What is this snow you speak of?

Sincerely,
The Mid-Atlantic States

:lol: :lol:
0 likes   
Andrew '92 Opal '95 Blizzard '96 Izzy '03 Irene '11 Sandy '12

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion is not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#5 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Dec 15, 2015 10:54 pm

Inland areas up here are in the midst of another snowstorm. If only you could take some of our snow, however blink and it might be gone as it looks like another warm up is on tap the next few days. :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#6 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:39 pm

0 likes   


User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20833
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#8 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jan 13, 2016 3:22 pm

That looks like some Noreaster :eek:

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#9 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:10 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#10 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:41 am

Potential major winter storm for the Eastern U.S. later this week

NWS forecasters are monitoring the possibility of a major winter storm affecting the Northeast later this week, including the possibility of heavy snow for the urban corridor extending from Washington, DC, to New York and Boston Friday into Sunday. Based on the anticipated storm track, as much as 1 to 2 feet of snow is possible near and northwest of I-95. Coastal flooding is also likely.

Source:

http://www.weather.gov/


PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2016

VALID 12Z TUE JAN 19 2016 - 12Z FRI JAN 22 2016


DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...

...MID MS VALLEY TO TN VALLEY...

A SPLIT FLOW/PARTIALLY UNIFORM UPPER TROUGH IS ARRIVING INTO THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF UPPER HEIGHT
FALLS DROPPING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST... AS A VERY
WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PROCEEDS ACROSS OK INTO AR...
WILL INITIALLY RESULT IN DYNAMICALLY DRIVEN SNOW FROM NE/KS INTO
MO/IA. HOWEVER BY LATE TUES EVENING... AN INCREASE IN GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTH TO INTENSIFY THE BROAD AND
WIDESPREAD AREA OF OVERRUNNING AND ISENTROPIC HEAVY SNOW. DECENT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SRN IA NRN/ERN MO INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL IL AND WRN KY WITH A POSSIBLE TRANSITION ZONE
SETTING UP TO THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH FROM NRN AR TO WRN TN. THE
MOSTLY UNORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL PROCEED DOWNSTREAM ON WED... AS
MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OVERRUNS INTO A DECAYING SURFACE RIDGE.
THIS SHOULD SPELL A CONTINUATION OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ERN
TN VALLEY INTO THE APPALACHIANS WITH A TRANSITION ZONE SETTING UP
ACROSS SERN TN/EXTREME NERN AL/NRN GA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
THE APPALACHIANS WED EVENING/OVERNIGHT THURS... EXPECT VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ACROSS THE MID-ATL REGION INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. WPC FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE HI-RES GFS AND ECMWF QPF
AND THERMAL PROFILES FOR THE HEAVY SNOW AND ICING BOTH DAYS.

...WEST...

A GOOD PORTION OF THE WEST WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED ON TUES INTO
EARLY WED WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY MTN SNOW... AS ONE MORE MOIST
SPLIT FLOW SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. A DECENT SURFACE WAVE WITH THE SRN STREAM
DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER JET ALONG THE NRN
STREAM ON TUES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNIFORM AREA OF PAC
MOISTURE TRANSPORT SPREADING INTO THE NW AND CA. EXPECT HEAVY SNOW
FROM THE CASCADES TO THE NRN CA MTNS AND SIERRA WHILE SPREADING
INLAND TO THE OR BLUE MTNS AND BITTERROOTS AND SAWTOOTH RANGES OF
ID. THE UPPER DYNAMICS FROM THE SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM WILL SLIDE
TOWARD THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ON WED BEFORE EVENTUALLY
REACHING THE THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS... EXPECT DECENT ACCUMULATIONS
FROM THE NRN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE... HEIGHTS WILL BUILD
ANOMALOUSLY ACROSS THE WEST COAST INTO THE INTERIOR TO FORM A
SHARP UPPER RIDGE WED INTO THURS. AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE ERN PAC WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM ON THURS... AS AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE REACHES THE PAC NW/CA. THE SRLY TRAJECTORY
OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SPELL HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHEST
PEAKS ACROSS NRN CA... WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS RATHER UNANIMOUS IN
VERY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NRN WA CASCADES.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE TN/SOUTHERN OH VALLEYS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

A RATHER MOIST AND DYNAMIC SPLIT FLOW SYSTEM ARRIVING INTO THE PAC
NW/NRN CA ON TUES WILL REACH THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS LATE WED INTO
THURS MORNING. THE DIGGING UPPER DYNAMICS REACHING THE PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO SHOW SIGNS OF PHASING... AS A MID TO UPPER CLOSED LOW
FORMS OVER KS WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM KS INTO
NE. EXPECT A BURST OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED VERTICAL LIFT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
ACCUMULATIONS FROM CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL NE.

THEN ON THURS... UPPER STREAMS WILL TRULY BEGIN TO PHASE OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND LEAD TO A DEVELOPING WINTER STORM. THE MID TO
UPPER LOW AND VORTICITY WILL DIG SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD AR/NRN MS
TO ESTABLISH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW A
PLETHORA OF GULF OF MEXICO AND SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD... BEGIN INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND OVERRUN INTO MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS. THE RESULTANT
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY SNOW AND LENGTHY TRANSITION
ZONE FROM SRN MO/NRN AR UP THE OH RIVER INTO KY/WV AND INTO THE
APPALACHIAN SPINE WHILE SPILLING OVER EAST OF THE MTNS INTO SWRN
VA/WEST CENTRAL NC.

ITS HARD TO ARGUE THE AGREEMENT AND LITTLE SPREAD BETWEEN THE
HI-RES GFS AND ECMWF ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM THROUGH THURS... MASS FIELD WISE WITH SMALLER SCALE
PARTICULARS ALONG WITH QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES... ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST PHASING EAST OF THE ROCKIES SINCE
LOCKED INTO THIS CLASSIC EL NINO PATTERN.

BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD AND INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE... A 48-60 HR
WINDOW EXISTS FOR A POSSIBLE HISTORIC WINTER STORM FROM THE ERN
OH/TN VALLEYS INTO THE NRN MID-ATL REGION INCLUDING THE
DC/BALT/PHIL METRO AREAS. TREMENDOUS MODEL AGREEMENT WITH MINIMAL
MODEL SPREAD IS INCREASING THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR SUCH AN
EVENT. A QUICK LOOK INTO ANALOGS SUGGEST THE MOST RECENT EVENT
RELATIVE TO THIS SETUP BEING 20 YRS AGO IN JAN OF 1996 THOUGH WITH
SOME DIFFERENCES. MUCH NEEDS TO BE FIGURED OUT TILL WE GET TO THAT
POINT BUT THIS COULD BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM OF THE
SEASON.

MUSHER

Source:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=qpfhsd
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 114882
Age: 62
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#11 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 19, 2016 11:50 am

12z GFS has 1-2+ feet of snow for DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York City and Boston thru Sunday morning.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#13 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Jan 21, 2016 1:00 pm

000
FXUS61 KBOX 211703
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1203 PM EST THU JAN 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY BUT COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. INTENSIFYING
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AND THEN
TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE
ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING LATE SAT INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

12 PM UPDATE ...

HAVE NUDGED HIGHS UP BY A FEW DEGREES. SUN ANGLE COMBINED WITH A
BARELY SNOW-COVERED GROUND FOR MOST LOCALES ALBEIT NW AND N-CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS IS RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT FASTER
THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER-20S TO MID-30S NOW
FORECAST.

BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING-WELL ALLOWING FOR THE MIX-DOWN OF BREEZY
NW-FLOW ... GUSTS AVERAGING 20 TO 30 MPH. IN CONSIDERATION ...
EXPECT REAL-FEEL / WIND CHILLS TO BEEN IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

TONIGHT...

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS ABLE TO BE
OPTIMIZED. LOW PRESSURE OFF OF ATLANTIC CANADA WILL PULL FURTHER
EAST...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD MORE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND ALLOWING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX SOME. WHILE
WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO RELAX A BIT IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AT THIS
POINT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WINDS WILL BE ABLE TO FULLY DECOUPLE
EXCEPT IN PERHAPS THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. THEREFORE...AM
EXPECTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THOSE SHELTERED VALLEYS
WITH TEENS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE...
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES.

FRIDAY...

ONE MORE DAY OF SUNNY SKIES AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FURTHER EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
GUSTY AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH AN ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL
JET. THEREFORE...IT WILL ACTUALLY FEEL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
IT HAS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN
ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE W/GREATEST RISK SOUTH COAST
* STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING EASTERN MA SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING

FRIDAY NIGHT ...

MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ANY PRECIP UNTIL SOMETIME SAT
MORNING OR AFTERNOON. THUS DRY WEATHER PREVAILS FRI NIGHT. IT WILL
BE COLD AS 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ...

MODEL TRENDS AND PREFERENCES...

00Z DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE WOBBLED A BIT /AS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE/ FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WITH THE 00Z GFS A
BIT FARTHER NORTH WITH ITS QPF SHIELD AND THE 00Z ECMWF A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH. THE NAM IS THE HEAVIEST AND FARTHEST NORTH. HOWEVER
THE NAM LOOKS TO BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH A
LARGE SWATH OF 3+ INCHES OF QPF ACROSS NJ/NYC AND LONG ISLAND. AS
FOR THE GEFS ENSEMBLES ABOUT A 1/3 OF THE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE
OPERATIONAL RUN WITH NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 0.25 INCH QPF CONTOUR
ALONG A LINE FROM BAF-ORH-BVY RAMPING UP TO 0.50 INCH FROM PVD-GHG
TO 1-2 INCHES OVER CAPE AND ISLANDS. THE REMAINING 2/3 OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS CONFINE ACCUMULATING SNOWS TO JUST THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST
WITH LITTLE IF ANY QPF NORTHWARD. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY
SOUTH WITH ONLY 0.10 QPF FROM BOS-BDL...0.25 FROM CENTRAL CT-PVD-PYM
AND 0.50-0.75 IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z EPS IS BIT HEAVIER AND FARTHER NORTH
WITH RISK OF 6+ INCHES OF SNOW FROM PVD-PYM. THE SHARPER GRADIENT IN
THE OP EC RUN IS PROBABLY PARTIALLY DUE TO THE HIGHER RESOLUTION.
GIVEN ALL MODEL GUIDANCE PLACES THIS SHARP QPF GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND GIVEN THE EVENT IS STILL 72-84HRS ALONG
WITH MODEL ERROR AT THIS RANGE...WILL CONTINUE WITH A MODEL BLEND
FOR QPF/SNOWFALL.

KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND UNCERTAINTY...

KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE BATTLE GROUND
BETWEEN THE CONFLUENT ZONE JUST NORTH OF THE REGION AND THE LARGE
INTENSE MID LEVEL LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE CONFLUENT
ZONE WILL PROVIDE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN A VERY SHARP CUTOFF
IN SNOW TOTALS OVER OUR AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. HOW MUCH SHORT
WAVE RIDGING THIS MID LEVEL LOW CAN GENERATE IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM
WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH CONFLUENT ZONE SHIFTS. OTHER
COMPLICATING ISSUE WITH THIS STORM IS THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW IS NOT
A TIGHT COMPACT CIRCULATION. ITS VERY LARGE AND BROAD WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP TO WRAP CYCLONICALLY /TROWAL-
COMMAHEAD/ VERY FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE KEEP IN MIND THE AVG MODEL TRACK
ERROR AT THIS TIME RANGE /72-84HRS/ IS ON THE ORDER OF 125 MILES PER
WPC. THIS COULD BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HEAVY SNOW REMAINING
OFFSHORE OR ACROSS THE DENSELY POPULATED I-95 CORRIDOR OF CT/RI AND
MA. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PAST STORMS /EX. 10 FEB 2010/ MODELS MAY
NOT CORRECTLY SIMULATE THE PLACEMENT OF THIS VERY TIGHT QPF GRADIENT
UNTIL 12 HRS OR LESS BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. THUS NEED TO LET THE
MODELS RUN THEIR COURSE AND WAIT FOR A BETTER CONSENSUS. THUS A
MODEL BLEND IS STILL OUR FRIEND. HENCE OUR SNOW FORECAST IS BASED ON
A MODEL BLEND.

PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL...

GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY AND TIME RANGE THIS IS GREAT
EVENT TO PUT MORE EMPHASIS ON OUR PROBABILISTIC SNOW FORECASTS RATHER
THAN DETERMINISTIC GRAPHICS. GREATEST RISK FOR 6+ INCHES WILL BE
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST OF MA AND RI. SNOW TOTALS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH RAPIDLY NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE IF ANY SNOW POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE MA PIKE AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE NH BORDER. ALSO A MIX
OF SLEET AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR THE OUTER CAPE AND
NANTUCKET.

FOR ALL OF OUR SNOW GRAPHICS VISIT OUR WINTER WEATHER PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOX/WINTER

STRONG WINDS...

STRONGEST NE WINDS OCCUR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 POSSIBLE WITH A LOW RISK
OF A FEW 60 MPH GUSTS. THIS MAY RESULT IN DOWN TREE LIMBS AND
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

&&......
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#14 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Jan 22, 2016 12:27 pm

Seems there won't be much of a precipitation impact in the region, other than perhaps the very southern tip of New England. The main event appears firmly centered on the Mid-Atlantic, of course this could always change -

000
FXUS61 KBOX 221514
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1014 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY AND COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY AND THEN TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS
PIKE WITH A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. THE STORM WILL ALSO DELIVER
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING LATE SAT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

10 AM UPDATE ...

TODAY ...

TEMPERATURES WARMING A DEGREE OR TWO FASTER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST LIKELY SUBSEQUENT OF A MOSTLY BARE GROUND AND THE SUN
ANGLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS PROMOTING THE MIX-DOWN OF
LINGERING FASTER FLOW ALOFT AS DISCERNED FROM THE LATEST VERTICAL
WIND PROFILER DATA FROM OUR WSR-88D IN TAUNTON MASS. A SLIGHT
NUDGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES ... UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ... WITH THE
MORE BREEZY FLOW THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION BUILDING S/E OUT OF CANADA. WIND
CHILL VALUES 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER RANGING IN AND AROUND THE
TEENS.

OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO FILTER IN FROM THE S/W AHEAD OF
THE STRONG STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC ... AS OCEAN-
EFFECT CLOUDS CLIP THE OUTER CAPE. OVERALL TREND: WILL SEE A
GRADUAL THICKENING OF SKY COVER THROUGH THE DAY AS OCEAN EFFECT
CLOUDS DISSIPATE TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TONIGHT ...

MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH
INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. ALTHOUGH DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL. NE WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOW PRES EXITS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND EMERGES INTO THE NC/VA COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT WITH TEENS INLAND AND LOW TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

*** RISK FOR A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL SAT/SAT NIGHT HAS SHIFTED NORTH
INTO SOUTH COASTAL MA/RI INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS ***

MODEL TRENDS AND PREFERENCES...

00Z NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER AND MAY BE SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
GULF STATES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW. THE EC
TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE 00Z GEFS HAVE MORE
MEMBERS WITH LESS QPF THAN THE OPERATIONAL RUN. THE 00Z EC HAS 6
INCH SNOWFALL CONTOUR STRADDLING THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA.
INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z 51 MEMBER EPS IS HEAVIER AND FARTHER NORTH
THAN THE OP RUN WITH 6" SNOW CONTOUR NORTHWARD TO IJD/SFZ/GHG! SO
GIVEN THIS NORTHWARD TREND SEEN IN ALL THE 00Z GUID ESPECIALLY THE
GFS/EC/RGEM AND 51 MEMBER EPS WILL FOLLOW AND TREND THE FORECAST IN
THIS DIRECTION. SO IN A NUTSHELL THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS
BASED ON A NON-NAM SOLUTION...SPECIFICALLY A BLEND OF THE 00Z
EC/GFS/RGEM AND EPS.

KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND UNCERTAINTY...

THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ON MODELS PROPERLY
SIMULATING CURRENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE GULF STATES AND IN
RESPONSE HOW MUCH DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS. BY SAT
NIGHT THE MID LEVEL LOW BECOMES VERY ASYMMETRIC AND ELONGATED TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY FORMING A SECONDARY MID LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET. THIS HELPS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT/FIREHOSE FROM THE
ATLANTIC TO WRAP CYCLONICALLY /TROWAL-COMMAHEAD/ BACK INTO RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. THUS INCREASING THE RISK FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS
FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION THE 00Z GFS HAS
MODEST MID LEVEL FGEN ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST/CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
WITH THIS MODEST LIFT OCCURRING IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THIS
COMBINED WITH A MODEL BLEND QPF FROM THE EC/GFS YIELDING UP TO 0.50
INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND UP TO 0.75 OVER THE
ISLANDS PROVIDES JUSTIFICATION FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTH
COASTAL MA AND RI. STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW NORTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE A COLD/DRY AIRMASS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. THUS A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
STORM TRACK AS LITTLE AS 50 MILES WILL HAVE A DRAMATIC IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND AT THIS FORECAST RANGE /36-54HRS/ THE AVG
MODEL ERROR IS ABOUT 100 MILES.

POTENTIAL SNOWFALL ...

AS MENTIONED ABOUT FOLLOWING A MODEL BLEND OF THE 00Z EC/GFS YIELDS
A RISK FOR 4-7" ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST OF MA/RI INCLUDING CAPE COD
AND THE ISLANDS. 2-4" FOR THE REMAINDER OF RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. A
SWATH OF 1-3" IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN CT-SOUTHERN WORCESTER
HILLS INTO METRO BOSTON. NORTHEAST MA INCLUDING BOSTON WILL HAVE A
SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AS MOIST NORTHEAST
FLOW COMBINES WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE NORTHWARD EXPANSION
OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH OR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. STEADIEST SNOW FALLS FROM 18Z SAT TO ABOUT 06Z
SUNDAY. AS FOR PTYPE...COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR INITIALLY WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW. GFS SOUNDINGS AT NANTUCKET ALSO
SUPPORT MAINLY ALL SNOW AS WELL. VISIBILITY MAY BE SEVERELY
REDUCED AT TIMES AS A PERIOD OF STEADY MODERATE SNOW SAT AFTN AND
NIGHT COMBINES WITH STRONG WINDS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...YIELDING
CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ...

LOW LEVEL NE JET CLIPS THE SOUTH COAST 18Z SAT THRU 06Z SUNDAY. 00Z
BUFKIT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR 50 KT AT BID/MVY AND
ACK. LOWER PROBABILITY NORTHWARD ONTO CAPE COD. THUS WILL ISSUE A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS. WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS /G46-
57MPH/ LIKELY FOR THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST INCLUDING THE CAPE.
THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE COVERED WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK
* A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY MORNING
* SEASONABLE BUT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOLLOWS

22/00Z MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEEKEND STORM WILL
PULL AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY. LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC TUESDAY BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. COLD HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS.
OVERALL..A RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WEEK FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND STORM.

SUNDAY...LOOKING AT SNOW COMING TO AN END DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AS THE UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE LOW PULL AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECT ANY LINGERING SNOW TO BE ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING
THE MORNING. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH A 40 TO 50 KT
LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITH 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF RHODE
ISLAND...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...AND THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND MONDAY AND CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO QUEBEC. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE IN QUEBEC CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD...PULLING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BUT START TO TREND COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/ ... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

15Z UPDATE ...

TODAY INTO TONIGHT ...

VFR. BREEZY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH MIDDAY
TAPERING THEREAFTER. MVFR CIGS CLIP THE CAPE EARLY ... OTHERWISE
TREND IS FOR LESSENING WIND WITH THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY ...

NE WINDS INCREASE UP TO 45 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALONG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...
LOWEST CIGS AND VSBYS OVER SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS. SNOW ACCUMS
OF AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE COASTAL RI AND SOUTH COAST MA INCLUDING
CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. AN INCH OR LESS NORTHWARD TO BDL-PVD-BOS.

SATURDAY NIGHT ...

STRONG NE WINDS G45 KT ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. MVFR IN
SNOW ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA WITH LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY SOUTH
COAST. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS CT AND WESTERN-CENTRAL
MA. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL POSSIBLE SOUTH COAST
INCLUDING CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

KBOS TERMINAL...
DRY FORECAST THRU THIS EVENING THEN MVFR CIGS ARRIVE TOWARD
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CIGS
WITH -SN YIELDING AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION.

KBDL TERMINAL...
DRY FORECAST AND VFR THRU TONIGHT. THEN SATURDAY MVFR CIGS WITH
N-EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD COMING CLOSE TO BDL. SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR
IMPROVING TO VFR.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SUNDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW EASTERN
MASS/RI MORNING...IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST. NORTHEAST WINDS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 45 TO 50 KNOT GUSTS OVER CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.

MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR
IN ISOLATED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

*** STORM FORCE NE WINDS POSSIBLE SAT AFTN AND NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MA AND RI WATERS ***

TODAY...GUSTY NW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISH AND BECOME
NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY.

TONIGHT...NE WINDS INCREASE TOWARD MORNING. DRY WEATHER AND GOOD
VSBY CONTINUE BUT MAY SEE SNOW ENTER THE RI WATERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

SATURDAY...NE WINDS INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STRONGEST WINDS ARRIVE AROUND MIDDAY AND THEREAFTER WITH NE GALES
LIKELY ALL WATERS AND POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE FROM BLOCK ISLAND
TO MARTHAS VINEYARD TO NANTUCKET AND POINTS SOUTHWARD. SNOW WILL
REDUCE VSBY ESP IN THE AFTERNOON.

SAT NIGHT...NE GALES LIKELY WITH RISK OF STORM FORCE GUSTS
SOUTHERN MA AND RI WATERS. VERY DANGEROUS SEAS OF 20-25 FT
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD AND
NANTUCKET. SNOW REDUCES VSBY TO 1 MILE OR LESS.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...STRONG LOW PRES TRACKS SE OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR SUN MORNING WHEN NE GALES WILL IMPACT THE
WATERS. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE
OUTERMOST SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL WATERS. VERY LARGE SEAS GIVEN THE
LONG ENE FETCH WITH SEAS 15 TO 25 FT SOUTH AND EAST OF NANTUCKET
OCEAN WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

MONDAY...WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS. SEAS DIMINISHING BUT BETWEEN 5 AND 7
FEET ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS INCREASE ON THE SOUTHERN
WATERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

MODEL TRENDS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH OCEAN
STORM. BOSTON SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AT 1112 AM WILL BE AT 10.92
FEET. SEAS OFF CAPE COD AT THAT TIME ARE FORECAST AT 15-20 FEET.
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM WE ARE ESTIMATING A
SURGE OF 1.5 TO 2.5 FT. WE FOLLOWED THE MORE ROBUST ETSS GUIDANCE
BUT STILL HAD TO INCREASE THIS GUID BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE. THIS
SURGE COUPLED WITH LARGE WAVE ACTION WILL LIKELY YIELD WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LOW RISK FOR MODERATE FLOODING.
HIGHEST RISK AREA APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF BOSTON THROUGH COASTAL
PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO THE UPPER CAPE /SANDWICH AREA/. THIS ALSO
INCLUDES NORTHEAST FACING SECTIONS OF NANTUCKET. NO HEADLINES YET
GIVEN TIME RANGE BUT COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES OR COASTAL FLOOD
WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

AS FOR BEACH EROSION...GIVEN DURATION OF ONSHORE WINDS IMPACTING
MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES AND MAGNITUDE OF WAVE ACTION...EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE EROSION WITH A LOW RISK OF MORE SEVERE
EROSION SANDWICH/DENNIS/OUTER CAPE AND EAST SIDE OF NANTUCKET IF
STRONGER WIND FIELD DRIFTS NORTHWARD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MAZ020>024.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR MAZ023-024.
RI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR RIZ006>008.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR RIZ008.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ232>235-237.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ230.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ231.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ236.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ250-251.
STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ254>256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ254>256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...NOCERA/RLG/SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...NOCERA
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...WFO BOX STAFF
0 likes   

stormwise
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 590
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#15 Postby stormwise » Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:29 am

Station 44009 (LLNR 168) - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ
Hpa is quickly dropping.
2016 01 23 05 50 40 20.0 25.0 3.7 7 6.0 53 1004.0 4.4 7.7 4.0 MM -7.4 MM
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/5day2/44009_5day.txt

Image
Waves building rapidly.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#16 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Jan 23, 2016 12:48 pm

Southern New England getting hit much harder than first thought -

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1106 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

MAZ007-240015-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160124T1500Z/
EASTERN ESSEX MA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GLOUCESTER
1106 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATION...CAPE ANN.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL
TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE
31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS
THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND
BRANCHES...POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN
ALSO BE DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

&&

$$


FOR THE LATEST UPDATES...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AT
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSBOSTON

YOU CAN FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AT
@NWSBOSTON


COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1057 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL IMPACTS THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT...

CTZ009-010-NYZ071-073-231900-
/O.CAN.KOKX.CF.W.0002.000000T0000Z-160123T1900Z/
/O.CAN.KOKX.CF.Y.0003.160124T0200Z-160124T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KOKX.CF.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-160123T1900Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-BRONX-
1057 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LONG ISLAND SOUND.

* TIDAL DEPARTURES...2 TO 3 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS
MORNING AND 1 1/2 TO 2 1/2 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS
EVENING.

* TIMING...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THIS MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. NO COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE.

* IMPACTS...FLOODING OF THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORE ROADS AND/OR
BASEMENTS DUE TO HEIGHT OF STORM TIDE OR WAVE SPLASHOVER.
MAJORITY OF ROADS REMAIN PASSABLE. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
THREAT TO LIFE AND ANY IMPACT ON PROPERTY IS MINIMAL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&
$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1051 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT...

CTZ009>012-240000-
/O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1200Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-
1051 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...COASTAL CONNECTICUT.

* HAZARD TYPES...WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...WITH HEAVY SNOW
AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAUSING CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 18 TO 24 INCHES WEST OF
BRIDGEPORT...AND 12 TO 18 INCHES EAST.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* TIMING...THROUGH TONIGHT.

* IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND
TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN
POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF
YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET
STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE.

&&
$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

CTZ002>004-MAZ017-018-RIZ001-002-232315-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160124T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KBOX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-160124T1200Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...FOSTER...
SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE
1005 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
SUNDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS. CITIES AND TOWNS IN THE WARNING
INCLUDE HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...VERNON...PUTNAM...
WILLIMANTIC...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND LATE MORNING AND MAY BE
BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&
$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1005 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

MAZ012-015-232315-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WW.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-160124T1200Z/
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILFORD...WORCESTER...BOSTON
1005 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WORCESTER AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES IN
MASSACHUSETTS...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN WORCESTER AND SUFFOLK COUNTIES IN
MASSACHUSETTS. CITIES AND TOWNS IN THE ADVISORY INCLUDE
MILFORD...WORCESTER AND BOSTON.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP AROUND LATE MORNING AND MAY BE
BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH COMBINED WITH THE SNOW WILL RESULT IN
BLOWING SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THE SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 20S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SNOW AND/OR ICE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE AFFECTED AREAS...BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. ANY SNOW OR ICE WOULD RESULT IN SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS AND SIDEWALKS. WHEN
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING...MOTORISTS NEED TO BE ESPECIALLY
CAREFUL ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS CAN EASILY
DEVELOP.

&&
$$
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#17 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:25 pm

Blizzard 2016 continues to surprise, is another shoe about to drop? -

3:28 PM AST Saturday 23 January 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:
•Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

A large and powerful low pressure system currently affecting much of the east coast of the United States will pass south of Nova Scotia later tonight and on Sunday. While many parts of the province will escape the brunt of this system, southwesternmost parts of the province and counties along the Atlantic coast will experience periods of snow and strong northeast winds beginning this evening and persisting into Sunday. At this time the system is expected to remain just far enough offshore to keep amounts below warning criteria for these regions. However, this system would only have to deflect slightly northward to increase snow amounts significantly, especially along southernmost sections of the south shore where forecast snowfall amounts are currently expected to reach upwards of 10 centimeters.

In addition these regions will receive strong northeast winds on Sunday, gusting to 60 km/h and possibly up to 80 km/h along parts of the coast, which will give significantly reduced visibility in blowing snow.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #NSStorm.
0 likes   

stormwise
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 590
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2015 7:39 pm

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#18 Postby stormwise » Sat Jan 23, 2016 7:47 pm

With the storms band lashing a large area along the coastline , the next 18 hours is likely to be very tough times.
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#19 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Jan 31, 2016 3:34 pm

Latest Storm Summary at my weather blog -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot ... chive.html
0 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2560
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#20 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Feb 04, 2016 3:22 pm

Surprise Nor'Easter on it's way -

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY WET SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

CTZ004-MAZ012-013-015>018-RIZ001-002-050345-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0002.160205T0600Z-160205T2000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0002.160205T0600Z-160205T2000Z/
WINDHAM CT-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...MILFORD...
WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...
BROCKTON...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE
245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST
FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS...AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS NEAR
INTERSTATE 95.

* TIMING...RAIN BEGINS LATE TONIGHT AND CHANGES TO SNOW EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE...BEFORE TAPERING OFF AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. PLACES THAT RECEIVE MORE THAN 5 INCHES OF SNOW
ARE PRONE TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES FROM DOWNED TREE LIMBS OR
WIRES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AND DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
POOR VISIBILITY. PLAN ON DOUBLING YOUR NORMAL DRIVE TIME
FRIDAY...OR TELECOMMUTE IF POSSIBLE.

&&
$$

Source:

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MAZ015&warncounty=MAC025&firewxzone=MAZ015&local_place1=2%20Miles%20ESE%20Boston%20MA&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning&lat=42.3583&lon=-71.0603#.VrOxpk72aPE


3:34 PM AST Thursday 04 February 2016
Snowfall warning in effect for:
•Fredericton and Southern York County

Snowfall, with total amounts of about 15 cm is expected.

A low pressure system will approach from the southwest on Friday. Snow, heavy at times, will start by morning over southwestern regions and then spread to the rest of southern New Brunswick. The snow will taper off Friday evening.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Take frequent breaks and avoid strain when clearing snow.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #NBStorm.

4:04 PM AST Thursday 04 February 2016
Winter storm warning in effect for:
•Queens County P.E.I.

Hazardous winter conditions are expected. Significant amounts of snow are expected.

A low pressure system will approach from the southwest on Friday.
Snow will develop early Friday morning ahead of this system and persist throughout the day. Snow will taper off overnight friday however blowing snow could remain an issue into early Saturday morning. Snow fall amounts are expected to reach 25 cm but could be even higher in some areas.

Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations. Visibility may be suddenly reduced at times in heavy snow. Poor weather conditions may contribute to transportation delays.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #PEStorm.

4:06 PM AST Thursday 04 February 2016
Rainfall warning in effect for:
•Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Rain, heavy at times is expected. The frozen ground has a reduced ability to absorb this rainfall.

A slow moving frontal trough will pass over Nova Scotia tonight giving some additional rain this evening. Overnight a low pressure system will develop southwest of the province and track northeastward on Friday. This low will bring additional rainfall amounts of 20 to 30 mm during the day Friday to southwest Nova Scotia and along the atlantic coast. Rain will change to snow Friday evening as it passes through ice pellets and freezing rain.

Localized flooding in low-lying areas is possible.

Rainfall warnings are issued when significant rainfall is expected.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #NSStorm.

Source:

http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Ralph's Weather, texas1836, WeatherP1 and 31 guests