New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

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Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#21 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:47 pm

000
FXUS61 KBOX 042100
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
400 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT STALLING OFFSHORE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOW PRESSURE
TO TRAVEL ALONG EARLY TOMORROW. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DELIVER A
MIX OF RAIN CHANGING TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A WEAK
COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS. A COMPLEX COASTAL STORM
SHOULD AFFECT THE REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
OVERALL A RELATIVELY QUIET EVENING AS BRIEF MID/SFC RIDGING TAKES
HOLD. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING COASTAL WAVE CURRENTLY
DELIVERING PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS WILL
NOT DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THANKS TO THE COLD AIR REMAINING TRAPPED
MAINLY TO THE N AND W OF THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPS ARE
LIKELY ONLY TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S BEFORE PRECIP
BEGINS TO START. MORE ON THE PRECIP/STORM BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW...

*** WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN MA...NORTHERN
RI...AND NORTHEAST CT ***

*** WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN CT...SOUTHERN RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA...AS WELL AS WESTERN MA.

OVERVIEW AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING TIMING...
UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE WILL BE TAKING ON STRONG NEGATIVE TILT AS IT
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH EQUATORWARD ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG UPPER JET TO
DEVELOP COASTAL LOW PRES WAVE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST
OFFSHORE. LATEST TRENDS ALL MAKE A MUCH CLOSER PASS WITH THIS WAVE
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND GIVEN IT HAS A DIRECT CONNECTION TO
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE...THE QPF FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD FURTHER W THAN PREVIOUS PROGS. QPF IS GENERALLY
WELL AGREED UPON AT THIS POINT...AT ODDS ARE THE LOW LVL THERMAL
PROFILES AND HOW QUICKLY/EFFICIENTLY THEY ARE ABLE TO COOL. WHILE
TIMING OF THE TROWAL OVERHEAD IS WELL AGREED UPON...WITH PRECIP
BEGINNING ALONG SE MA ROUND 10PM...THEN SPREADING NW THROUGH ABOUT
2-4AM. HOW QUICKLY IT CHANGES TO SNOW MAINLY AFTER 4AM IS THE
PRIMARY QUESTION. SFC WET-BULBS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S...WHICH ARE MARGINAL. EXPECT GRADUAL CHANGE ACROSS WRN MA/CT
BETWEEN 2-5AM...CENTRAL...NORTHEAST MA AND RI BETWEEN 4 AM AND
7AM...THEN BETWEEN 7 AM AND MID-DAY FOR SE MA. THE TIMING WILL
HAVE MUCH TO DO WITH THE FINAL TOTALS...BUT GIVEN STRONG F-GEN
ABOUT H6 YIELDING LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGIME AROUND
H5...HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING TO
OVERCOME THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURES. HENCE THE RISK FOR
HEAVY...WET SNOW DURING THE AM COMMUTE FOR MANY.

QPF AND SNOWFALL...
VERY HIGH PWAT AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...THE SAME THAT BROUGHT THE
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. LOOKING AT 1.0-1.25 INCH PWATS
/NEARLY 3 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ STRONG F-GEN COMBINED WITH
MODERATE LLJ WILL YIELD QPF VALUES RANGING FROM THE 0.25 INCHES
ACROSS WRN MA/CT TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH+ IN EASTERN MA. SNOWFALL
BASED ON THIS QPF IS TRICKY FOR THE THERMAL REGIONS MENTIONED
ABOVE. CHANGE-OVER TIMING AND LOW RATIOS ARE LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL THIS STORM WOULD OTHERWISE HAVE. HIGHER RATIOS WILL BE
WHERE LOWER QPF IS OBSERVED AND VICE-VERSA. THE PEAK OVERLAP IS
FROM NE CT INTO NRN RI AND EASTERN MA...WHERE FINAL TOTALS OF 6-8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. 3-6 POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR CENTRAL
MA/CT...SOUTHERN RI AND PORTIONS OF SE MA WITH LESS ON THE OUTER
ARM OF CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DUE TO THE FACT THESE AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN THE LONGEST.

IMPACTS...
DUE TO THE FACT THAT SNOW RATIOS WILL BE LOW WITH THIS STORM...AND
BANDING WITH 1+ INCH/HR RATES ARE POSSIBLE...HEAVY WET SNOW MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. THIS WILL BE EXACERBATED BY A LLJ
AROUND 40 KT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN SOME OF IT/S MOMENTUM.
THEREFORE...THE COMBINATION OF WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH AND HEAVY WET
SNOW MAY INCREASE THE RISK.

THE OTHER PRIMARY IMPACT IS THAT THE CHANGE-OVER AND HEAVIEST
PRECIP/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE PEAK HOURS OF THE AM
COMMUTE...WITH LOCALIZED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON UNTREATED ROADWAYS.

THE MORE DYNAMIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM IN RELATION TO PREVIOUS
PROGS SUGGEST A SLOWER END AS WELL. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRYING THE LOW LEVELS...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT OF
SNOW LEFTOVER MID-LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN MA BEFORE THINGS
END BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
* ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY OR TUESDAY
* DRY WEATHER RETURNS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WILL
SWING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY...BUT THE
BEST DYNAMICS/MOISTURE REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO OUR N THAT WE SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO OUR
REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH SETS STAGE FOR POTENTIALLY STORMY
WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE STORM. EXPECT THIS
STORM TO COME MORE INTO FOCUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE ON TO THE WEST COAST AND ARE BETTER SAMPLED. HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME SORT OF STORM OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN.

12Z ECMWF PRODUCES TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE OF WHICH WILL PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK ON MONDAY /WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND/...AND THE SECOND OF WHICH PASSES DIRECTLY OVER THE
BENCHMARK ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS PRODUCES A SINGLE COASTAL SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA AND MOVES OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN WIDELY DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE PROFILES
THAN THE ECMWF. DUE TO THE WIDE VARIATIONS IN THESE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS...WE ARE BASING FORECAST MORE ON ENSEMBLES AND WILL
UTILIZE CONSENSUS BLEND TO WORK OUT DETAILS FOR NOW.

THIS RESULTS IN SNOW DEVELOPING LATE MON INTO TUE...BUT DESPITE COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WE WILL PROBABLY BE DEALING WITH WARMTH IN
BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH WILL GIVE US ISSUES WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OR EVEN
RAIN...PRIMARILY FROM PROVIDENCE AND BOSTON TO CAPE COD AND ISLANDS.
SETUP RIGHT NOW FAVORS HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS INTERIOR...BUT
AGAIN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS
TO FORECAST IN COMING DAYS.

FOR NOW...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE BUT WE NEED TO SEE HOW THESE TWO
SHORT WAVES EVOLVE AS THEY ENTER WEST COAST AND WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS COUNTRY.

WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.
AGAIN MODEL SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
HOW MON/TUE EVOLVES. BUT WE DO EXPECT TO SEE DRYING IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THURSDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WHILE SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM PLAYS
OUT...THERE IS AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

Source:

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BOX&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
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Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#22 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:39 pm

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 02 FOR NEW ENGLAND WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

...THE SNOWFALL WITH THIS EVENT HAS ENDED...

ALL WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM HAVE EXPIRED.

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 900 PM EST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997
MB...29.44 INCHES...WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
NOVA SCOTIA...CANADA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT ALL OF THE SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAD ENDED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW LINGERING
VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR EASTERN MAINE.

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...MASSACHUSETTS...
NANTUCKET 2 ESE 52

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...CONNECTICUT...
COVENTRY 14.3
STAFFORDVILLE 13.0
WOODBRIDGE 13.0
STAFFORD SPRINGS 12.8
MERIDEN 2 ENE 12.0
TOLLAND 12.0
COLUMBIA 11.2
POMFRET CENTER 11.1
WOODSTOCK 11.1
IVORYTON 11.0
HADDAM 10.0
STORRS 10.0
HAMDEN 9.3
EASTON 9.0
BRIDGEPORT 7.0
NEW HAVEN 5.0

...DELAWARE...
PORT PENN 2.2
HARRINGTON 1.5
NEW CASTLE COUNTY ARPT 1.5
BLACKBIRD 1.4
ELLENDALE 1.4
FREDERICA 1.3
SEAFORD 1.3
SMYRNA 1.2

...MASSACHUSETTS...
WORCESTER 3 WNW 12.5
STERLING 11.6
LITTLETON 11.0
SOUTHBRIDGE 11.0
ROCKLAND 10.3
MILTON 9.8
EAST BRIDGEWATER 9.5
TAUNTON 3 NW 9.5
DRACUT 9.0
FRAMINGHAM 8.5
HAVERHILL 8.0
MANSFIELD 7.5
SOUTH BOSTON 6.0

...MARYLAND...
SULDERSVILLE 2.2
MILLINGTON 1.2

...MAINE...
BUCKSPORT 1 SSE 13.0
EAST MACHIAS 4 E 12.0
HARRINGTON 2 ESE 12.0
CHARLOTTE 11.5
ROBBINSTON 11.0
WHITING 11.0
BATH 2 W 10.0
WELLS 2 NE 10.0
BERWICK 9.5
BAR HARBOR 9.0
YARMOUTH 9.0
PORTLAND JETPORT 8.8
BANGOR 8.5
PHIPPSBURG 2 SSW 8.2
PORTLAND 8.0

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
LEE 10.8
DOVER 10.5
KINGSTON 2 NE 10.0
HUDSON 4 SSE 9.8
STRATHAM 2 ENE 9.2
ATKINSON 9.0
ELIOT 2 WNW 8.5
NASHUA 7.9
STRAFFORD 2 SSE 7.3
MANCHESTER 7.0
MERRIMACK 7.0
CONCORD ASOS 5.2
MARLBOROUGH 5.0
PORTSMOUTH INTL ARPT 5.0

...NEW JERSEY...
FREEHOLD 6.0
TOMS RIVER 6.0
BRICK TWP 5.8
NORTH CALDWELL 5.7
WEST MILFORD 5.6
CHEESEQUAKE 5.5
MANALAPAN 5.2
HOWELL TWP 5.0
JAMESBURG 5.0
OLD BRIDGE 4.0
MOUNT LAUREL 3.2
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 3.0
NEWARK ARPT 2.8

...NEW YORK...
SAINT JAMES 11.9
BETHPAGE 11.5
EAST HILLS 11.0
SOUTH HUNTINGTON 11.0
PLAINVIEW 10.5
LEVITTOWN 10.2
BAY SHORE 10.0
NYC/JFK ARPT 4.6
CENTRAL PARK 2.5
HARLEM 2.4
NYC/LA GUARDIA 2.4

...PENNSYLVANIA...
NEWTOWN 3.2
HORSHAM 2.5
WAYNE 2.0

...RHODE ISLAND...
BURRILLVILLE 12.0
NORTH FOSTER 11.2
BRISTOL 10.5
CUMBERLAND 8.0
LITTLE COMPTON 8.0
PORTSMOUTH 8.0
MIDDLETOWN 7.1
PAWTUCKET 6.5
WEST WARWICK 6.0
COVENTRY 5.3
PROVIDENCE 5.2
WESTERLY 5.0
BLOCK ISLAND 4.0
NORTH KINGSTOWN 4.0
NEWPORT 2.5
NARRAGANSETT 2.2

...VIRGINIA...
HEATHSVILLE 1.0
LANCASTER 1.0
WALLOPS ISLAND 1.0
WEST POINT 1.0

...VERMONT...
WEST HALIFAX SE 5.0
BELLOWS FALLS 3.1
WOODFORD 1.5


WITH THE LOW MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE...NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STORM SUMMARY ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS EVENT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SANTORELLI

Source:

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html
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Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#23 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Fri Feb 05, 2016 11:43 pm

Two more major snow events on the way? :froze:

921
FXUS61 KBOX 060320
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1020 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
LIKELY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN MA...BUT ITS
UNCERTAIN IF THIS WILL MAINLY BE A NUISANCE EVENT OR A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

1030 PM UPDATE...

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TEMPS WHICH CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT. WINDS ARE STILL A BIT GUSTY
SO THAT HAS SLOWED RADIATION COOLING A BIT. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND QUIET WEATHER.


7 PM UPDATE...

ALL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED. THE LAST OF THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY 8 PM ACROSS THE OUTER-CAPE AND
NANTUCKET. OTHERWISE...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION AND THIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE CAPE/ISLANDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. FRESH SNOW COVER AND DIMINISHING WIND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW GUIDANCE NUMBERS IN THE OUTLYING
LOCATIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 10 AND 15 ACROSS THE
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S IN THE URBAN HEAT
ISLANDS OF DOWNTOWN BOSTON/PROVIDENCE.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT CONTINUES THIS EVENING...AS FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ANY STANDING WATER/SLUSH TO FREEZE SOLID.
MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR BLACK ICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
NOSE OF HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER FROM THE W. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE
SUGGESTS SOME AFTERNOON CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT LITTLE ELSE.
DROPPED HIGHS A LITTLE BIT FROM CURRENT FORECASTS AS THE ADDED
SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY KEEP 2M TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY SUGGESTING. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* DRY WITH RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS SUN
* PERIOD OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY MON-WED ESPECIALLY COAST
* UNCERTAIN IF MON-WED IS NUISANCE SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM

DETAILS...

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...

WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER. LOW TEMPS
SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 20S...BUT SOME UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COLDER OUTLYING LOCATIONS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON
SUNDAY AND WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

EXTREMELY COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. A
COUPLE OF POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL CARVE OUT A DEEP EAST COAST TROUGH.
THERE IS SO MUCH ENERGY IN THE FLOW THAT THE MODELS ARE GOING TO
HAVE A TOUGH TIME ON RESOLVING WHAT EXACTLY UNFOLDS.

FIRST THING IS FIRST...AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. CURRENT
INDICATIONS TAKE THE STORM SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. NOW OF
COURSE THAT IS 72+ HOURS OUT...SO A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. HOWEVER...EVEN IF
THE STORM PASSES WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK...MAY STILL END UP
WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EVENT ESPECIALLY ON THE COAST. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 35 TO 50 KNOTS
OF ENE FLOW AT 850 MB...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST
THE COASTAL PLAIN. ALSO...SOME LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND OCEAN
ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR IN EASTERN MA.

A SECOND POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
TRACK NORTHEAST TUE INTO EARLY WED. A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE FIRST SYSTEM ON
MONDAY. THERE ARE A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES...FROM A GLANCING
BLOW...TO A STRONG NOREASTER AND EVEN AN INVERTED TROUGH SETUP.

TO SUM UP...THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO RECEIVE AT LEAST
SOME SNOW AT TIMES MONDAY INTO WED. WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN...BUT AS MENTIONED IN
THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPHS ALL OPTIONS ARE ON THE TABLE. WE ARE LIKELY
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...

LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY OVER THIS TIME FRAME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH A WAVE
OR TWO OF LOW PRESSURE THAT MAY END UP BRINGING A BIT MORE
SNOW...BUT MUCH OF THIS PERIOD MAY END UP DRY. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE...WILL KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

&&

Source:
[url]
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... hlight=off[/url]
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Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#24 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Feb 06, 2016 8:39 pm

000
FXUS61 KBOX 070024
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
724 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN OCEAN STORM MAY BRING A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL
TO SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE LIKELY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT BRINGS BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

650 PM UPDATE...
BAND OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS AT 23Z AS SEEN ON LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO NOTING
SOME MID CLOUDS ACROSS S VT/NW MA THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SINCE
SUNSET THAT MAY CROSS INTO N CENTRAL AND NE MA THROUGH 03Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. ADJUSTED SKY COVER TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

DEWPTS A BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST SO ADJUSTED TO BRING
CURRENT. DO AGREE WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTER THAT DEWPTS SHOULD
SLOWLY RISE AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT SW WINDS IN PLACE.

REMAINDER OF FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE. HAVE UPDATED TO BRING
CONDITIONS CURRENT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT PROVIDES DRY WEATHER TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH
PRES AT THE SURFACE JUST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SW PRES GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS AND YIELDING TEMPS NOT AS COLD AS
LAST NIGHT AS DEWPTS CLIMB INTO THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

SUNDAY ...

NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRES AT THE
SURFACE. THUS EXPECTING A DRY COLUMN SUPPORTING LOTS OF SUNSHINE
AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL MAKE TEMPS IN THE L40S FEEL EVEN
MILDER.

[b]SUNDAY NIGHT ...

1035 QUEBEC SURFACE HIGH ADVECTS SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD
INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH OVER THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS
OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL THIS EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING INTO A SUB 980 MB LOW/GALE CENTER WELL EAST OF THE
NC COAST SUN NIGHT. TYPICALLY THIS TRACK IS TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
YIELD ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOUTHEAST MA. HOWEVER THIS CYCLONE HAS
A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION/WCB/FIREHOSE IN ADDITION TO 1035 MB
SURFACE HIGH OVER QUEBEC. THUS SNOW COMES ONSHORE 06Z-12 MON AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME OCEAN EFFECT SNOW /OES/ COMPONENT GIVEN NE
WINDS AND SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTH. BIG
DIFFERENCES WITH MODEL QPF WITH NAM/ARW/NMM MOST ROBUST. EC/GFS
AND RGEM MORE MODEST SO FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH
IF NOT ALL OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH SIGNS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH LATER THIS WEEK
ACROSS THE EAST. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH WED AND POSSIBLY INTO THU...THEN WILL START TO
SETTLE DOWN. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH
IN WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

STILL PROBLEMS WITH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHORT WAVES IN THE OVERALL
CUTOFF LOW PRES/LONG WAVE TROUGH MON-WED...THOUGH DOES LOOK LIKE
SOME SETTLING IN WITH SOME OF THE DETAILS. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE...WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF PRECIP
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

USED A BLEND OF MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH
ENSEMBLES WHICH GAVE REASONABLE CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

[/b]DETAILS...

MONDAY-TUESDAY...MODELS SETTLING IN WITH CONTINUE NE FLOW IN
PLACE. FIRST LOW PRES PASSES WELL SE OF NANTUCKET...BUT
COMBINATION OF THIS STRONG STORM /CENTRAL PRES FROM 970-978 HPA AS
IT PASSES MON AFTERNOON/ AND HIGH PRES RIDGING EXTENDING S OUT OF
QUEBEC ACROSS W NEW ENGLAND...VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT IN PLACE.
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS E COASTAL
AREAS...GENERALLY S OF BOSTON. GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO 35-45 MPH
ALONG E COASTAL AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH.

MODELS DO KEEP PUSHING NW FRINGE OF PRECIP INTO EASTERN AND
POSSIBLY CENTRAL AREAS...PLUS WILL LIKELY SEE COMBINATION OF OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW. NOTING AT LEAST CONDITIONAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE
EFFECT ON BOTH GFS AND 4 KM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

DID HAVE ISSUES WITH QPF FORECAST...THOUGH WITH STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS SHOULD SEE SOME ENHANCEMENT THERE. USED A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE... 12Z GFS AND A TOUCH OF THE 15Z SREF...WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z MONDAY WITH
INITIAL SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS LOW PASSES.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF INITIAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG
ONSHORE WINDS ENHANCING THE PRECIPITATION...EXPECT TO SEE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS INTO PLYMOUTH
COUNTY. PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW...THOUGH COULD SEE
SOME MIX WITH RAIN DURING TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER PRECIP. BASED ON
THIS...HAVE ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THOSE AREAS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF BUT NOT TOTALLY END DURING TUESDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL SITS CLOSE TO THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE AND KEEPING LIGHT SNOWFALL IN PLACE. WILL
LIKELY ALSO SEE A MIX WITH RAIN ALONG THE S COAST. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS...THOUGH LOOKS TO BECOME
A BIT MORE SPOTTY TUE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD. WILL SEE CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A LOT
OF QPF TO DEAL WITH...MORE NUISANCE SNOW BUT COULD STILL SEE LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MIDDAY WED. AS UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE
TROUGHING STARTS TO FLATTEN...NOTING AN ARCTIC FRONT IN THE NW
FLOW. EXPECT TO CROSS THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...WHICH WILL BE A DRY PASSAGE. EXPECT NW WINDS TO PICK UP ON
THU ALONG AS ARCTIC AIRMASS SHIFTS SE. HIGHS THU WILL ONLY BE IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY TO VERY COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE.
ANOTHER REINFORCING ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES FRI NIGHT...WITH EVEN
COLDER AIR MOVING IN. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS HIGHS ON SATURDAY
RUNNING AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MID FEBRUARY.

&&

Source:
[url]
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... hlight=off[/url]
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Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#25 Postby TimeZone » Sun Feb 07, 2016 2:38 pm

Looks like Nova Scotia is going to take a beating.
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Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#26 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Feb 07, 2016 3:49 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
236 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAZ018-019-021>024-080345-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0003.160208T1200Z-160209T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.BZ.W.0002.160208T0900Z-160209T0000Z/
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...MATTAPOISETT...
CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET
236 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE
ISLANDS. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES AND TOWNS OF BROCKTON...
PLYMOUTH...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN AND NANTUCKET

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT IN
DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES. STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY SNOW WILL CREATE BLIZZARD/WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...BUT
POTENTIALLY UP TO 18 INCHES OVER PARTS OF PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND
UPPER CAPE COD. LESS SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR
NANTUCKET.

* TIMING...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA 5 AM TO 8 AM MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW OCCURRING AFTER 8 AM AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SNOW INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BETWEEN 4 PM TO
7 PM.

* IMPACTS...CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO
PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OR FREQUENT
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH CONSIDERABLE FALLING AND/OR
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL BECOME POOR WITH
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS MAY
BECOME LOST OR DISORIENTED...SO PERSONS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE
ADVISED TO STAY INDOORS.

&&
$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
236 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAZ005>007-012>017-020-RIZ001-002-004-005-007-080345-
/O.UPG.KBOX.WS.A.0003.160208T1200Z-160209T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.WS.W.0003.160208T0900Z-160209T1200Z/
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-NEWPORT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...FALL RIVER...
NEW BEDFORD...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WARWICK...
BRISTOL...NEWPORT
236 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7
AM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE GREATER BOSTON AREA...NORTH SHORE...WESTWARD TO
WORCESTER AND SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...ALL OF RHODE
ISLAND AND ADJACENT EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE
CITIES AND TOWNS OF FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...QUINCY...
TAUNTON...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...
PROVIDENCE...WARWICK...BRISTOL AND NEWPORT.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA MONDAY MORNING 4 AM TO 7 AM
THEN BECOMES HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER 8 AM AND CONTINUES INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOW INTENSITY BEGINS TO DIMINISH BY MID
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL TREATED
SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR UNTREATED
SURFACES.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD...OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.

&&
$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
222 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...HEAVY SNOW ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT
ON MONDAY...

NYZ078>081-080500-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.W.0003.160208T0800Z-160208T2300Z/
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
222 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EST
MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SUFFOLK COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW AND WIND.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES.

* TIMING...SNOW DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT...AND THEN THE HEAVIEST SNOW
WILL FALL FROM THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND A HEAVY WET SNOW
WILL BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG WINDS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...
AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&
$$
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Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#27 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sun Feb 07, 2016 3:51 pm

TimeZone wrote:Looks like Nova Scotia is going to take a beating.


Indeed

3:57 PM AST Sunday 07 February 2016
Blizzard warning in effect for:
•Halifax Metro and Halifax County West

Blizzard conditions with poor visibility in snow and blowing snow are expected or occurring.

A low pressure system currently south of Cape Hatteras will intensify as it tracks up the U.S. eastern seaboard tonight then pass south of Nova Scotia Monday night. Snow associated with this system will begin near noon Monday over southwestern portions of the province then spread eastward through the day. High winds associated with this storm combined with snow will result in widespread reduced visibilities over the province. 20 to 35 centimetres of snow are currently expected over much of mainland Nova Scotia and Cape Breton before tapering to flurries on Tuesday.

Additionally this system will give higher than normal water levels and rough surf along the Atlantic coast of Nova Scotia Monday night.

Travel is expected to be hazardous due to reduced visibility. If visibility is reduced while driving, slow down, watch for tail lights ahead and be prepared to stop.

Blizzard warnings are issued when widespread reduced visibilities of 400 metres or less are expected for at least 4 hours.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to weatherASPC@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #NSStorm.
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Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#28 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:37 am

STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 05 FOR NORTHEAST WINTER STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1000 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

...SNOWFALL IS TAPERING OFF ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MAINE

FOR A DETAILED GRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE LATEST
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES...PLEASE SEE WWW.WEATHER.GOV

AT 900 AM EST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
992 MB...29.29 INCHES...WAS LOCATED EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA...CANADA
AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADARS
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED VERY SCATTERED AND LIGHT SNOW
STILL FALLING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES FROM 500 AM EST MON FEB
08 THROUGH 900 AM EST TUE FEB 09...

...MAINE...
EAST MACHIAS 13.5
BUCKSPORT 1 SSE 13.0
EASTPORT 1 ESE 12.8
EAST MACHIAS 4 E 12.0
HARRINGTON 2 ESE 12.0
WHITING 12.0
CHARLOTTE 11.5
PROSPECT HARBOR 11.5
ROBBINSTON 11.0
BATH 2 W 10.0
WELLS 2 NE 10.0
BERWICK 9.5
BAR HARBOR 9.0
YARMOUTH 9.0
PORTLAND JETPORT 8.8
BANGOR 8.5
PHIPPSBURG 2 SSW 8.2
PORTLAND 8.0
SACO 5.0
WHITING 3 NNE 4.5
BASS HARBOR 5 S 4.0
GORHAM 3 SSE 4.0
GRAY NWS OFFICE 3.7
LEWISTON 2 E 3.0
NEW GLOUCESTER 3.0
YORK 3.0
HOPE 2.0

...SELECTED PEAK WIND GUSTS IN MILES PER HOUR EARLIER IN THE
EVENT...

...MASSACHUSETTS...
NANTUCKET 65
SCITUATE 61
MILTON 3 SSW 59
FALMOUTH 52
NANTUCKET 2 ESE 52
HYANNIS/POLANDO FIELD 51
VINEYARD HAVEN 51
EAST MILTON 49
PLYMOUTH MUNI ARPT 49

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MOUNT WASHINGTON 61

...RHODE ISLAND...
CHARLESTOWN 61
PROVIDENCE/PO WARWICK 46

...SELECTED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IN INCHES WHERE THE EVENT HAS
ENDED...

...CONNECTICUT...
COVENTRY 14.3
STAFFORDVILLE 13.0
WOODBRIDGE 13.0
STAFFORD SPRINGS 12.8
MERIDEN 2 ENE 12.0
TOLLAND 12.0
COLUMBIA 11.2
POMFRET CENTER 11.1
WOODSTOCK 11.1
IVORYTON 11.0
HADDAM 10.0
STORRS 10.0
HAMDEN 9.3
EASTON 9.0
POMFRET 8.2
BRIDGEPORT 7.0
WINSTED 6.3
LEDYARD CENTER 6.0
NEW HAVEN 6.0
NEW MILFORD 6.0
SOUTHINGTON 5.2
NEW FAIRFIELD 3 NNE 5.0
STONINGTON 5.0
NORWICH 4.5
OLD SAYBROOK 4.3
AVON 4.0
COLCHESTER 4.0
WESTBROOK 3.1
NEW LONDON 2.8
NEW CANAAN 2.5

...DELAWARE...
PORT PENN 2.2
HARRINGTON 1.5
NEW CASTLE COUNTY ARPT 1.5
BLACKBIRD 1.4
ELLENDALE 1.4
FREDERICA 1.3
SEAFORD 1.3
SMYRNA 1.2

...MASSACHUSETTS...
WORCESTER 3 WNW 12.5
STERLING 11.6
EAST FALMOUTH 11.0
LITTLETON 11.0
SOUTHBRIDGE 11.0
ROCKLAND 10.3
ORLEANS 10.0
MILTON 9.8
EAST BRIDGEWATER 9.5
TAUNTON 3 NW 9.5
DRACUT 9.0
YARMOUTHPORT 9.0
CENTERVILLE 8.9
WEST WAREHAM 8.9
OAK BLUFFS 8.8
FRAMINGHAM 8.5
BREWSTER 8.0
EAST WAREHAM 8.0
HAVERHILL 8.0
NORTH WEYMOUTH 7.8
MANSFIELD 7.5
BOURNE 7.0
HARWICH 7.0
NANTUCKET 7.0
SANDWICH 6.8
WAQUOIT 6.5
CONCORD 6.0
SOUTH BOSTON 6.0
LEOMINSTER 5.6
TAUNTON 2.9

...MARYLAND...
SULDERSVILLE 2.2
MILLINGTON 1.2

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...
LEE 10.8
DOVER 10.5
KINGSTON 2 NE 10.0
HUDSON 4 SSE 9.8
STRATHAM 2 ENE 9.2
ATKINSON 9.0
ELIOT 2 WNW 8.5
NASHUA 7.9
STRAFFORD 2 SSE 7.3
MANCHESTER 7.0
MERRIMACK 7.0
CONCORD ASOS 5.2
MARLBOROUGH 5.0
PORTSMOUTH INTL ARPT 5.0
WEST HAMPSTEAD 5.0
ALSTEAD 6 ESE 4.2
MERRIMACK 3 SW 3.3
NEW BOSTON 2 S 3.2

...NEW JERSEY...
FREEHOLD 6.0
TOMS RIVER 6.0
BRICK TWP 5.8
NORTH CALDWELL 5.7
WEST MILFORD 5.6
CHEESEQUAKE 5.5
MANALAPAN 5.2
HOWELL TWP 5.0
JAMESBURG 5.0
OLD BRIDGE 4.0
MOUNT LAUREL 3.2
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 3.0
NEWARK ARPT 2.8

...NEW YORK...
SAINT JAMES 11.9
BETHPAGE 11.5
EAST HILLS 11.0
SOUTH HUNTINGTON 11.0
PLAINVIEW 10.5
LEVITTOWN 10.2
BAY SHORE 10.0
YAPHANK 6.4
MATTITUCK 6.1
FLANDERS 6.0
OLD FIELD 6.0
ORIENT 6.0
SOUTHAMPTON 6.0
SMITHTOWN 5.5
JAMESPORT 5.1
NYC/JFK ARPT 4.6
BABYLON 3.4
DIX HILLS 3.3
CENTRAL PARK 2.5
HARLEM 2.4
ISLIP 2.4
NYC/LA GUARDIA 2.4
BAYSIDE 2.0
LITTLE NECK 2.0
NYC LA GUARDIA 0.9

...PENNSYLVANIA...
NEWTOWN 3.2
HORSHAM 2.5
WAYNE 2.0

...RHODE ISLAND...
BURRILLVILLE 12.0
NORTH FOSTER 11.2
BRISTOL 10.5
COVENTRY 8.5
CUMBERLAND 8.0
LITTLE COMPTON 8.0
PORTSMOUTH 8.0
SCITUATE 8.0
WEST GREENWICH 7.5
WEST WARWICK 7.2
MIDDLETOWN 7.1
CRANSTON 6.5
PAWTUCKET 6.5
RICHMOND 6.5
PROVIDENCE 6.2
NORTH KINGSTOWN 5.0
ROCKVILLE 5.0
WESTERLY 5.0
NARRAGANSETT 4.5
BLOCK ISLAND 4.0
GLOCESTER 3.0
N. CUMBERLAND 3.0
TIVERTON 3.0
NEWPORT 2.5

...VIRGINIA...
HEATHSVILLE 1.0
LANCASTER 1.0
WALLOPS ISLAND 1.0
WEST POINT 1.0

...VERMONT...
WEST HALIFAX SE 5.0
WOODFORD 4.5
BELLOWS FALLS 3.1
LANDGROVE 2.1
HALIFAX 1.5


THE SNOWFALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE STRONG LOW MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
COAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END TODAY. LITTLE
TO NO ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE WHERE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY BE
POSSIBLE. EVEN AFTER THIS STORM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...SOME
LIGHTER SNOW IS EXPECTED AS A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP
THE NORTHEAST COAST BY MIDWEEK.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST STORM SUMMARY ISSUED BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS EVENT. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

KREKELER


Weather summary
for Nova Scotia
updated by Environment Canada
at 9:14 a.m. AST Tuesday 9 February 2016.

==Discussion==

An intense low pressure system passed south of Nova Scotia Monday
night and produced snow at times heavy and strong northeast winds
giving blowing snow and whiteout conditions.

The following is a summary of weather event information received by
Environment Canada as of 9am Tuesday.

1. Summary of snowfall in centimetres:

Halifax International Airport: 46
Halifax: 27
Enfield: 30
Dartmouth: 23
Shearwater Jetty: 16
Bedford: 17
Hammonds Plains: 25
Lake Echo: 24
West Porters Lake: 24
West Chezzetcook: 30
Lower West Pubnico: 19
Yarmouth: 18
Port Maitland: 30
Baccaro Point: 14
Western Head: 23
Tracadie: 21
Rawdon: 24
Truro: 19
Antigonish: 32
Wolfville: 15
Kentville: 20
Greenwood: 16
Middleton: 19
Kejimkujik: 24
Sydney Airport: 28
Ingonish Beach: 30
North Mountain: 19

2. Summary of wind in kilometres per hour:

Yarmouth: 70
Baccaro Point: 102
Western Head: 61
Lunenburg: 65
Halifax International Airport: 57
Hart Island: 96
Caribou Point: 72
Nappan: 63
Debert: 67
Kentville: 59
Greenwood: 80
Brier Island: 85
Port Hawkesbury: 70
Eskasoni: 70
Sydney Airport: 78
North Mountain: 89
Northeast Margaree: 61

Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial
information and does not constitute a complete or final report.

End/ASPC
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Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#29 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Feb 11, 2016 12:49 pm

The Big One Cometh? -

000
FXUS61 KBOX 111509
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1009 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH A
FEW LOCALIZED HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS. BITTERLY COLD WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIP EARLY
NEXT WEEK.....

TUE AND WED...

INTERESTING SETUP WITH SRN STREAM REGAINING CONTROL AND
DEVELOPING A LOW PRES WITH CONNECTION TO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AS GEFS MEAN IS OVER THE
BENCHMARK WHILE ECENS MEAN IS WELL INLAND. IN ANY CASE...A
POTENTIAL P-TYPE ISSUE STORM WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF POTENTIAL QPF.
THE WEDGE OF COLD AIR LEFT OVER MAY LEAD TO SOME ICE DEVELOPMENT
DEPENDING ON THIS TRACK...OR EVEN JUST ALL RAIN/SNOW. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE AS IMPACTS COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
IF ICE IS INVOLVED. FOR NOW...THE BLEND DOES HAVE A BIT OF ICE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...BUT THIS IS
LIKELY TO CHANGE
.


778
FXUS61 KCAR 111630
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1130 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY VERY COLD AIR AT THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER LOW WITH A
SECOND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
LIKELY BY THE COLDEST DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE SEASON
SO FAR ON SUNDAY.....

......LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND LOW SINGLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE
ELSE. THE WIND CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH WIND CHILL ADVISORY HEADLINES
HIGHLY LIKELY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE TAKEN A
CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO
THE NARROW RIDGE...BUT IF IT CRESTS SUNDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES
COULD GO MUCH LOWER. THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE BELOW ZERO SUNDAY
NIGHT. STRONG WARM ADVECTION FOLLOWS LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS REBOUND ON MONDAY TO THE
TEENS. THE COAST WILL WARM TO THE LOW 20S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE INITIAL OVERRUNNING SNOW FROM A MAJOR STORM
EVENT WILL START. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
US IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND MOVE UP THE COAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH DEVELOPS SOME NEGATIVE TILT. THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. OUR GRIDDED FORECAST TOOK AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FROM
MULTIPLE MODELS AND BROUGHT THE LOW INTO THE MIDCOAST TOWARDS
HOULTON ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS SEVERAL INCHES OF OVERRUNNING
SNOW FOLLOWED BY A CHANGEOVER TO HEAVY RAIN EXCEPT TOWARDS THE
ALLAGASH WHERE SNOW COULD HOLD THROUGH THE EVENT.

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO BE ONE OF THE BIGGEST EVENTS OF THE
WINTER AS IT PULLS A VERY RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE
BAHAMAS WITH VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS INCLUDE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING WITH A MORE WESTERN TRACK OR
HEAVY SNOW WITH A MORE EASTERN TRACK. A CORRIDOR OF FREEZING RAIN
IS ANOTHER CONCERN ON THE WEST SIDE OF TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH FROM
THE LOW.


THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY WITH A FLASH FREEZE
POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR RETURNS.
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Re: New England/Maritimes Winter 2015-2016

#30 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Feb 13, 2016 12:33 pm

Region in the grip of the most acute cold wave of the season, thus far -

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1007 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>019-026-RIZ001>004-132315-
/O.CON.KBOX.WC.W.0001.160213T2100Z-160214T1700Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...
GLOUCESTER...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...
SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...
CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...
WARWICK
1007 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO NOON EST SUNDAY...

* HAZARD TYPES...LIFE THREATENING WIND CHILLS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 33 BELOW.

* TIMING...THE WORST OF THE WIND CHILLS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WIND CHILLS THIS COLD CAN BRING ON FROSTBITE IN AS
LITTLE AS 10 MINUTES! OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED IN
THESE CONDITIONS. STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY
DOWN A FEW LARGE TREE LIMBS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* AIR TEMPERATURES...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL FALL TO NEAR RECORD COLD VALUES OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO...
COLDEST OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN THE WIND CHILL INDEX IS
LIKELY TO FALL TO -25 DEGREES OR COLDER FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS. A
WIND CHILL INDEX BELOW -30 CAN BRING ABOUT FROSTBITE IN AS LITTLE
AS 10 MINUTES. OUTDOOR EXPOSURE SHOULD BE LIMITED. IF YOU ARE
HEADING OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND KEEP YOUR HANDS AND HEAD
COVERED TO PROTECT AGAINST FROSTBITE

&&
$$


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1221 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

MEZ001-003-004-010-140130-
/O.CON.KCAR.WC.W.0001.160214T0700Z-160214T1500Z/
NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK-NORTHERN SOMERSET-NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS-
CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALLAGASH...CLAYTON LAKE...MADAWASKA...
FORT KENT...FRENCHVILLE...BAKER LAKE...BILLY-JACK DEPOT...
BAXTER ST PARK...CHAMBERLAIN LAKE...CHURCHILL DAM...
MOUNT KATAHDIN...GREENVILLE...MONSON...BLANCHARD
1221 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK COUNTY...NORTHERN SOMERSET
COUNTY...AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...AS LOW AS 40 BELOW.

* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA ARE LIKELY IF NOT DRESSED
APPROPRIATELY WHILE OUTDOORS.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...6 TO 19 BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL WARNING MEANS THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. THIS
WILL RESULT IN FROST BITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA OR DEATH IF
PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&
$$
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