Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

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Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#1 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Jan 03, 2016 8:07 am

Usually an Ohio Valley area winter thread is created, but I haven't really had the heart to since Dave passed away last winter. Figured I would finally get around to doing it, though.

After a record setting hot December, it looks like the cold and snow is getting ready to really start impacting the region over the next few weeks!
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#2 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 03, 2016 8:45 am

November and December were wonderful compared to last year. January is starting off fine, but who knows where it will end up. February and March are anybody's guess.

As long as there isn't an Ice Storm lurking, I'll be fine.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter Thread

#3 Postby tolakram » Mon Jan 04, 2016 7:44 am

Thanks for creating the thread, I miss Dave.

I would like some snow, I like winters with snow, but not ice. We had our first visible (to me) dusting this morning.
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#4 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 05, 2016 7:39 am

Texans are fussing about some major mega-freeze. I don't pay attention fortune teller type fantasy mumbo jumbo 'models'. Current 7 Day Forecast shows a cool-down to seasonable temperatures, but nothing extreme so far.
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#5 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 05, 2016 6:31 pm

KPAH 7 Day:

Saturday
A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming west northwest in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Sunday
A slight chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 34. North northwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 19. North northwest wind around 7 mph.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 33. West wind 6 to 8 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. Southwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 38. West southwest wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.


That would be the 10th and 11th


Cooler than recent weeks, but not drastic cold.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#6 Postby tolakram » Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:47 am

1.5 inches of snow here at the house in NKY. Finally some snow.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#7 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:25 am

Similar with temps to stay in the 20s all day. Gotta trudge out and fill the bird feeders later.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#8 Postby tolakram » Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:01 pm

About 2.5 to 3 inches on the ground after this mornings storm. I had issues filling the feeder and thought the cardinals would attack me before I finished. :lol:
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#9 Postby WeatherGuesser » Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:33 pm

I just wish the Blackbirds wouldn't chase the Cardinals and Blue Jays off.

The Great January Roller Coaster is underway. 50s last week, 20s yesterday, 50s Friday, 30s Monday
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#10 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:59 pm

Today I realized that I needed snow boots. I've never had to walk more than 100 yards in the snow, almost slipped on my way to class a couple of times.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#11 Postby tolakram » Thu Jan 14, 2016 12:26 pm

It's all melting away today. Warm up and rain, then get cold again. Typical Winter.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#12 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Jan 14, 2016 1:11 pm

Couple days ago, the yard was too slippery to move around because of the snow.

Today it's too slippery to move around because of the mud.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#13 Postby WeatherGuesser » Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:39 pm

Code: Select all

Sunday    Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. West northwest wind 5 to 13 mph.
Sunday Night    Mostly clear, with a low around 9. North northwest wind 7 to 13 mph.
M.L.King Day    Sunny, with a high near 22. North northwest wind 3 to 7 mph.
Monday Night    Partly cloudy, with a low around 14. Light and variable wind.
Tuesday    A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Southeast wind 3 to 7 mph.


OK, that's on the verge of getting cold.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#14 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:49 am

Still calling for a high in the low 20s tomorrow, but CPC indicates 'warmer than normal' after that, so hopefully this will be the 'bottom' of Winter.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#15 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:15 am

Getting big fluffy snowflakes in Columbus right now.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#16 Postby TheProfessor » Sun Jan 17, 2016 2:33 pm

So this upcoming weekend could be fun for the area, models are still almost a week out though so a lot could change.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#17 Postby brunota2003 » Mon Jan 18, 2016 4:10 am

It is currently 12.6F here near Stanton. We'll probably bottom out around 8F this morning, and then near 0F tomorrow morning! Ugh. Wednesday looks interesting, I could see myself picking up 1-2 inches of snow, with areas off to the west picking up 3 inches...maybe even an isolated 4 in there somewhere! Then there is the Thursday night into Saturday morning system...oh boy. Latest GFS was showing about 3.5 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation...with Friday's highs around 35F.

While it is too early to look at detailed snowfall amounts with more than a grain of salt, it seems the consensus thus far is in the 6-10 inch range, with some sleet mixing in and rain during part of the day Friday. I don't like it, temperatures are too close to freezing, with a decent warm nose overhead. If that snow from Wednesday helps entrench the colder air in at the surface stronger than the models are showing, it could be very bad around here! I'd rather have 6 inches of heavy, wet snow than a 1/2 inch of freezing rain (or for that matter, would rather get 2-3 inches of 34F and rain!)
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#18 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:25 am

They're talking about snow Wednesday, but I can't figure out if they mean snow or SNOW!

I have things to do this week and Wednesday is (was) the best option. Now I'm not sure if I should go tomorrow or not.
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#19 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:14 pm

Some of the GFS Ensemble members have no snow for Central Ohio, some have close to 10 inches and a couple have 20+ inches :eek:
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Re: Ohio Valley 2015-2016 Winter

#20 Postby WeatherGuesser » Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:34 pm

National Weather Service Paducah KY
600 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016

.UPDATE...

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 400 AM CST MON JAN 18 2016

Still a big forecast challenge with upcoming winter event...esp
with weather type uncertainties over southern portions of the
quad state region Tuesday night into Wed.

Big player in the overall equation may well be the very cold air
that will be in place leading up to the event. In fact...wind chill
readings are currently between 0 and -10 in most locations, and
temps may not get out of the teens to lower 20s today, despite full
sunshine. Will be tough to erode the low level cold before precip
gets well underway...esp aft midnight Tue night. Will likely see low
temps Tuesday morning in the 7 to 17 degree range. Temps should
begin a modest recovery on Tuesday afternoon as the surface high
drift off to the east, but will still mainly be in the 20s to near
30.

H50 trof moving east from the Plains later Tuesday will induce
surface low development over the srn Plains. This low is expected
to track ene into nern AR Tuesday night. It is still looking as
though a shield of wintry precip will overspread the region from
west to east during the night. The bigger question continues to
lie with what type of precip will fall. Warmer air sneaking into
the H85 layer above the surface will likely lead to a light
freezing rain/sleet event over southern areas of southeast
MO...especially near the AR border. Farther n/e a snow event is
becoming more likely. Could be snow going over to sleet or
freezing rain in areas between (like the wrn tip of KY). All of
this sounds similar to yesterday`s discussion, which is usually a
good sign of confidence. However, it should be noted that models
have still been waffling in between forecast packages as to the
exact track of the surface low, and hence the extend of the warm air
intrusion. Some adjustments will still likely need to be made with
time, but I believe it is becoming more apparent that most of srn
IL/sw IN and nw KY will be dealing mainly with a snow event this
time around.

Nonetheless, it still looks as though much of the region will be
dealing with some type of winter precip come sunrise Wednesday, so
will reissue a Special Weather Statement with this package to
address this potential. Will allude to 2-4" potential for much of
srn IL/sw IN/nw KY...with a transition to mostly sleet/freezing
rain (and eventually all rain Wed) over far srn areas of se MO.
Would not be surprised if some locations near the AR border pick
up a .1" to .2" of freezing rain by sunrise Wed. Again, this is
just a another stab at amounts/ptypes, and adjustments will
probably need to be made in the next 24-48 hours.



In other words ... got a coin to toss?
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