Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

Finally some snow cover in the central plains. Blizzard watches for once which have been endangered this season. At least there will be some snow cover for whatever brief cold snap there may be. It would be worth the long chase to Nebraska to Wisconsin.

Yeah, I think I'll save my long roadtrip up that way for the eclipse in August maybe.

There will be a total eclipse over Dallas April 2024. Totality will pass over a swath from San Antonio-Austin-Dallas-Texarkana strip

Interesting. Almost 4 minutes of totality here. The eclipse this year up north is a mere 2 1/2 minutes at best

Pretty crazy stretch coming up for these things for the conus in general. Another one in 2045 in Oklahoma down into Dixie. Little Rock is the epicenter twice in 21 years. Has a 6 minute totality in Alabama and Florida.

[TheProfessor]

It's February and I'm currently under an enhanced risk for severe storms tomorrow. Super Cells are in itself rare for most of Ohio, but it's fairly possible that there could be some out ahead of the main band tomorrow.

[bubba hotep]

We saw this several times last year, the models were too far east with the dryline and had to try and recover at the last minute. I can think of at least two days that they had the dryline well east of I35 as of the morning runs only to have it setup west of DFW in the afternoon.

[Portastorm]

I appreciated all of the comments in response to my post yesterday about the "new normal." This is such a great group of folks and you all always have good insights and experience. Admittedly my own emotions get in the way sometimes of an analytical approach to examine what our winters have really been like in recent times. The last two winters here in Austin have been a laughable, sad joke ... no hyperbole there. I realize some of you in North Texas have fared better than we have down here in the last few years. I also realize that expectations this far south must be adjusted accordingly. But I do know what I have experienced since moving to Austin in 1984. And the degree of warmth the last two winters has been remarkable as evidenced by the early springs.

If we see another blowtorch winter next year, I think it's seriously time to accept the fact that our climate has shifted into a new paradigm. Meanwhile, it would be nice to get some seasonal weather or even a little below normal temps here and there before the furnace turns on for good later this spring. That's not asking too much wxman57, is it?

[gatorcane]

Meanwhile, it would be nice to get some seasonal weather or even a little below normal temps here and there before the furnace turns on for good later this spring. That's not asking too much wxman57, is it?

The 300+ hour GFS seems to be showing the extreme cold off and on in the runs lately but it seem to always stay out beyond 300 hours, here is the latest run:

[Ntxw]

CfsV2 is showing a trendline towards a strong El Nino coming. This would be unprecedented in our short history of watching ENSO. I would caution still forecasts of Enso this early but certainly an eye opener.

Rain and water folks would be happy at this news (as well as Pacific tropical cyclone enthusiasts) but cold lovers cringe at the idea more heat pumped into the globe. The magic number for El Nino for next winter is roughly 0.8C-1.4C which is the sweet spot at least for Texas.

[bubba hotep]

CfsV2 is showing a trendline towards a strong El Nino coming. This would be unprecedented in our short history of watching ENSO. I would caution still forecasts of Enso this early but certainly an eye opener.

Rain and water folks would be happy at this news (as well as Pacific tropical cyclone enthusiasts) but cold lovers cringe at the idea more heat pumped into the globe.

If the QBO flips, it should but who really knows, then that would argue against another strong +ENSO event. Much like last spring when the strong +PDO was a red flag to ignore the models showing a mod to strong -ENSO event. It will certainly be interesting to watch it unfold.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Looks like up this way will pick up a light freeze tomorrow night if the forecast verifies. About time. Saturday looks to be a nice day with a high in the lower 50s. Sucks it doesn't last though.

[Ntxw]

CfsV2 is showing a trendline towards a strong El Nino coming. This would be unprecedented in our short history of watching ENSO. I would caution still forecasts of Enso this early but certainly an eye opener.

Rain and water folks would be happy at this news (as well as Pacific tropical cyclone enthusiasts) but cold lovers cringe at the idea more heat pumped into the globe.

If the QBO flips, it should but who really knows, then that would argue against another strong +ENSO event. Much like last spring when the strong +PDO was a red flag to ignore the models showing a mod to strong -ENSO event. It will certainly be interesting to watch it unfold.

Is it conceivable that ENSO can also modulate the QBO? The idea it did not flip last year (against fundamentally known meteorology that is should have flipped) after a record setting Super Nino one has to wonder. I am not well versed with QBO so curious.

[Ntxw]

Forecast high today at DFW is 91F...Feb is the new September

[Tireman4]

Forecast high today at DFW is 91F...Feb is the new September

Sigh

[Brent]

Forecast high today at DFW is 91F...Feb is the new September

Yeah too many months are like that.

[JDawg512]

We are seeing global shifts in weather patterns as well as climate patterns. This trend is going to continue and likely speed up. The planet is hot, a second possible Niño indicates that it's natural cooling mechanism did not do enough to alleviate the problem. We are in uncharted territory and I wouldn't dare make a bet on what long range forecasts are showing at this point. That's just my two cents for what it's worth, take it or leave it if you wish.


Our next chance of rain currently doesn't look too significant but at least there is another chance afterwards next Tues into Wed.

[weatherdude1108]

We are seeing global shifts in weather patterns as well as climate patterns. This trend is going to continue and likely speed up. The planet is hot, a second possible Niño indicates that it's natural cooling mechanism did not do enough to alleviate the problem. We are in uncharted territory and I wouldn't dare make a bet on what long range forecasts are showing at this point. That's just my two cents for what it's worth, take it or leave it if you wish.


Our next chance of rain currently doesn't look too significant but at least there is another chance afterwards next Tues into Wed.

With every year that passes by, I think I am tending to agree with you. Although there are some people like John Casey, who used to work for NASA, that say we are headed into another Grande Solar Minimum/mini Ice Age, based on natural earth cycles and sun spot cycles. I'm not seeing any evidence of an Ice Age at this point, at least on our end of the globe.

Maybe this elongated warm spell LOCALLY/North America could be due to a climate shifting balance towards an earth-wide overall Ice Age climate(?), but that is pure and total guess, not backed up by anything. I have no idea what the climate in Texas was like during the last Ice Age/Grande Solar Minimum. That would be interesting to research. I would love to find out.

I don't think the earth's atmosphere has never had such a vast, man-made conglomerate of chemicals, gases, and aerosols thrown into its system in such a relatively short period of time in it's long history.

Then like you said, another strong Nino signal, immediately on the heals of an almost non-existent Nina? Earth is probably readjusting itself to a another new balance. It really is uncharted territory with respect to the human record IMO.

[Ntxw]

The globe the past 24 months warmth injection is a direct linkage to the super Nino. This is measured data. This winter's warmth and last winter's warmth is likely a direct result of that huge ENSO event. This is what the numbers show. I do not want to dive into further the background influences in this thread.

Its borderline hot right now in the upper 80s at lunch

[CaptinCrunch]

Weather patterns go in both cold and warm phases, and we have been stuck in looong warm phase here in NTX. Since May 2015 (below average) we have only had 3 months with a average monthly mean temperature (June 2015, Aug 2015, June 2016) and 1 month with a below average monthly temperature (May 2016) and 4 of the last 6 month have been warmest months on record (including Feb 2017 so far)

[Yukon Cornelius]

Meanwhile, it would be nice to get some seasonal weather or even a little below normal temps here and there before the furnace turns on for good later this spring. That's not asking too much wxman57, is it?

The 300+ hour GFS seems to be showing the extreme cold off and on in the runs lately but it seem to always stay out beyond 300 hours, here is the latest run:

Hasn't it been showing this or something similar for March 7 or 8 for a few days now? Maybe I'm wrong but I feel like I keep seeing it brought up for either one of those days.

[CaptinCrunch]

Yes but we also saw that map for middle January, and Middle February, and still nothing so I'll believe it when when I'm cold again. Till then I'm going to have to mow the back yard for the 2nd time this spring/summer/used to be called winter....lol

[GalvestonWXGeek]

I apologize in advance for posting this here. I'm not attempting to hijack this thread or open a discussion relating to the link; but I found this to be quite interesting.

Article from September, 1958.

http://harpers.org/archive/1958/09/the- ... ice-age/1/

[wxman57]

12Z GFS has dropped any forecast of "winter weather" for Texas in March. No big surprise. I see some indications of potential severe storms around the 10th/11th, but that relies on the GFS 500mb pattern being anywhere close to reality.

On another note, I had lunch today with Air Force Met (Nelson), formerly a frequent poster here. He's too busy to post on S2K, with his military duties and church. We talked mostly about hunting/fishing. He's a very good meteorologist.

And on yet another note, here's a picture of Squaw Valley ski resort. They've had over 7 feet of snow this past week. Snow is all the way up to the ski lifts.