Texas Winter 2016-2017

[Brent]

wow its 86 at DFW and tomorrow will be warmer...

If that holds I wouldn't be surprised to see some 90s in the metro

[Ntxw]

Yeah, 80s and even 90s in Feb or winter is not so much a freak event but what has transpired since post Christmas has been extreme even for extreme when it has been warm.

[weatherdude1108]

We should have cancelled the Texas Winter thread back in Mid-January. Little did we know.

[TheProfessor]

We should have cancelled the Texas Winter thread back in Mid-January. Little did we know.

Everyone but the East and NW coast should have just canceled winter.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This is one unique year for sure. What a weird one. Hoping we get a modiki with of course a warm pool near Alaska. We knew we were at risk for this sort of winter. Big cold balsts, warm in between. Thats La Nina. For the first half, it was playing out perfectly! Now thats its nino-ish, no idea what March will be like. I am a bit happy we dont have a La nina summer though.

I'm not picking on you TPB but your note does prompt me to say something. I have seen others here mentioning the Nina and that we knew it could be like this ... I don't agree. At best we had a weak Nina and I remember plenty of discussion around this forum and from other professionals online that this winter was going to have some blocking and some prolonged cold. That NEVER happened. At worst we had two real cold shots and they were very brief. Outside of that it has been above the MUCH ABOVE normal. Thank God we at least have had some precipitation and more than what we would see in a real Nina winter.

I'm reading where the nation is on par to have one of the warmest Februarys in recorded history. I am becoming more and more convinced that our winters of the past will not return. As someone said in this thread the other day, we all may have to simply adjust our expectations in future winters and forget what happened 10, 20 years ago.

Dont feel like youre picking on me at all . We agree it seems like. Now, this is all saying that Feb will continue to be very warm and since its our met winter, lets say its one of the warmest. We expected more cold shots for sure, but the warm spells we knew WOULD happen inbetween. This prolonged warm spell is very unexpected. I dont know of anyone expecting this to happen. The shift in the pacific off the coast of SA in late Jan is what was unexpected and is causing the rain and warmth.

I saw on twitter, at the 20hpa level near the equator, the winds have been westerly for 21 months. What does that mean? In my amateur thinking, feel free to correct me, during the nino, there was such a strong walker cell that in the upper parts of the atmosphere, we are still feeling the effects of the nino. I have no idea when such a thing would return back to 'normal.' Just something i had to ponder when i saw the tweet. Its possible that when this does relax, it reverses and could casue a weak la nina. Again, i have no research behind this. Just my thoughts on things.

I think that winters of the past will always return too. Even reading about the 1895 Valentine snowstorm, they said it hadnt snowed in 7 years. Things will normalize, but there will be variables within seasons.

Edit: For the record, i see below normal March for us. I think it will be wet and chilly. You know as soon as we go to the Spring thread, we will have winter like weather!

[Ntxw]

I would agree the pattern you would expect with a Nina did transpire pretty well. 500mb wise which is often what we use for forecasting has been good. The issue has been underestimating the strength of the warmth at the surface. For the same reasons we often say cold air is underestimated during outbreaks, this winter surface warmth had staying power even when the upper pattern showed cold.

[Brent]

I'm not surprised by the ups and downs this winter really... I figured there'd be SOME 80s this winter, we always knew that was a la nina thing, but it's more how prolific the warmth has been(record-breaking) or the fact we haven't have a freeze since January 8th and may easily not get another one. The two big fronts we had in Dec/Jan, I thought it would at least continue on in some form and that's where my surprise comes from.

It hurts more following a year like last winter too.

and I'm looking at the GFS and it's almost all below normal once the calendar flips to March.

[lrak]

This is the first winter I can remember not wearing a wet suit during the month of February. Strange....

[JayDT]

Yall know what really sucks? Being in Northern Colorado, & still being borderline on getting any snow....

[Brent]

Yall know what really sucks? Being in Northern Colorado, & still being borderline on getting any snow....

yeah I had travel plans this winter to see snow and I'm glad I decided a few weeks ago to move on... maybe next winter will be better in Chicago or something.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon guidance suggests a potent longwave trough extending from near the Arctic to the SW Border early next week. With those dynamics a potential severe threat lurks for portions of Texas and Oklahoma.

[Quixotic]

Yall know what really sucks? Being in Northern Colorado, & still being borderline on getting any snow....

What sucks is having a dusting be your highlight for two years! Two!

[bubba hotep]

This is one unique year for sure. What a weird one. Hoping we get a modiki with of course a warm pool near Alaska. We knew we were at risk for this sort of winter. Big cold balsts, warm inbetween. Thats La Nina. For the first half, it was playing out perfectly! Now thats its nino-ish, no idea what March will be like. I am a bit happy we dont have a La nina summer though.

I'm not picking on you TPB but your note does prompt me to say something. I have seen others here mentioning the Nina and that we knew it could be like this ... I don't agree. At best we had a weak Nina and I remember plenty of discussion around this forum and from other professionals online that this winter was going to have some blocking and some prolonged cold. That NEVER happened. At worst we had two real cold shots and they were very brief. Outside of that it has been above the MUCH ABOVE normal. Thank God we at least have had some precipitation and more than what we would see in a real Nina winter.

I'm reading where the nation is on par to have one of the warmest Februarys in recorded history. I am becoming more and more convinced that our winters of the past will not return. As someone said in this thread the other day, we all may have to simply adjust our expectations in future winters and forget what happened 10, 20 years ago.

Put me in the "weak nina good for Texas winter" camp and that has busted big time. It was pretty obvious that this was never going to be a strong nina based on the +PDO, so it seemed logically to go with the weaker nina analogs for this winter. The weak nina's didn't look too bad:



but this winter has looked more like a strong nina:



However, digging deeper into the data and 3 years stick out like sore thumbs - '98/99 (mod), '99/00 (mod) and '11/12 (weak):







This is what those 3 give you for March:



The models do relax the Pacific jet here shortly and that opens a window for some cold in early March but the last couple of days of model runs have actually trended towards closing that window with the quickness. The cold bleeds off well to the NE and the +PNA builds in as the Pacific jet extends again. It is looking scarily like what happened in Feb.

The Canadian ensemble shows this pretty well:

[bubba hotep]

Yall know what really sucks? Being in Northern Colorado, & still being borderline on getting any snow....

What sucks is having a dusting be your highlight for two years! Two!

MBY ended up with nearly 1/2" of snow from that event! 1/2" in two years

[Quixotic]

Yall know what really sucks? Being in Northern Colorado, & still being borderline on getting any snow....

What sucks is having a dusting be your highlight for two years! Two!

MBY ended up with nearly 1/2" of snow from that event! 1/2" in two years

Money in the bank. We will regress to the means and get 10" next winter.

[bubba hotep]

What sucks is having a dusting be your highlight for two years! Two!

MBY ended up with nearly 1/2" of snow from that event! 1/2" in two years

Money in the bank. We will regress to the means and get 10" next winter.

I'm all in, if the QBO flips like it should then '09/10 is a legit analog in my book.

[Brent]

What sucks is having a dusting be your highlight for two years! Two!

MBY ended up with nearly 1/2" of snow from that event! 1/2" in two years

Money in the bank. We will regress to the means and get 10" next winter.

One can only hope... I mean we do deserve it

and while we're at it Austin can get a few inches as well as wxman57.

[Ntxw]

Finally some snow cover in the central plains. Blizzard watches for once which have been endangered this season. At least there will be some snow cover for whatever brief cold snap there may be. It would be worth the long chase to Nebraska to Wisconsin.

[Brent]

Finally some snow cover in the central plains. Blizzard watches for once which have been endangered this season. At least there will be some snow cover for whatever brief cold snap there may be. It would be worth the long chase to Nebraska to Wisconsin.

Yeah, I think I'll save my long roadtrip up that way for the eclipse in August maybe.

[Ntxw]

Finally some snow cover in the central plains. Blizzard watches for once which have been endangered this season. At least there will be some snow cover for whatever brief cold snap there may be. It would be worth the long chase to Nebraska to Wisconsin.

Yeah, I think I'll save my long roadtrip up that way for the eclipse in August maybe.

There will be a total eclipse over Dallas April 2024. Totality will pass over a swath from San Antonio-Austin-Dallas-Texarkana strip