Texas Winter 2016-2017

[orangeblood]

Right on cue, 1060 + HP's showing up in western Canada....I know its long range but almost always a sign of Arctic Outbreaks

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Holy moly, with NW flow too, that would come smack down into the plains. Im starting to notice that when GFS see something after 300hrs, if it actually does verify in some form or fashion, it comes a week or so later. It usually is a bit early with things. This is not because im biased and need some -PNA in 10 days

[TheProfessor]

I for one am excited for some NW flow and a clipper train. Unfortunately NW isn't typically a good set up for Texas.

[Ntxw]

I'm not too concerned with the -EPO. Seasonal trend suggest its return is likely and cold air is not a problem. It has ensemble support even if 300hrs, GFS is likely picking up Pacific changes.

My biggest concern is too progressive a PNA, playing with fire when the ridge is inside the west coast. Really hoping the tropical pacific delivers an STJ, only thing worse than warm and dry is cold and dry while watching a dry storm pass and blowup east of the Mississippi. Benefit of +pna is it wont shoot back up to 70 the week after

[TheProfessor]

I'm not too concerned with the -EPO. Seasonal trend suggest its return is likely and cold air is not a problem. It has ensemble support even if 300hrs, GFS is likely picking up Pacific changes.

My biggest concern is too progressive a PNA, playing with fire when the ridge is inside the west coast. Really hoping the tropical pacific delivers an STJ, only thing worse than warm and dry is cold and dry while watching a dry storm pass and blowup east of the Mississippi. Benefit of +pna is it wont shoot back up to 70 the week after

And to be honest for me, If I want a big storm(which I do) I need to be on the Eastern side of the trough, although I do get clippers when the trough sets up further east, The bigger storms end up on the east coast. The problem with hoping for a bigger storm is that you have to have it phased, and when you're further inland you have to hope that it doesn't transfer too early.

[Hurricane_Apu]

The bigger storms end up on the east coast. The problem with hoping for a bigger storm is that you have to have it phased, and when you're further inland you have to hope that it doesn't transfer too early.

Look up the weather maps for 3/8/08. That's how it's done.

[gatorcane]

Posted in Florida thread but check out the latest ECMWF, animated GIF below, that should bring some cold temps to Texas and the SE US as well as Florida

[wxman57]

Days 8-10 EC indicate temps to the mid 30s in the D-FW area and near 40 in Houston. Colder than it has been, but not very noteworthy. The source region is just not very cold (yet).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Any precip within that period of the Euro? Looks very cold.

[Ntxw]

Any precip within that period of the Euro? Looks very cold.

Euro at the surface is dry. NW flow

[wxman57]

Any precip within that period of the Euro? Looks very cold.

It's not cold air. The only sub-freezing temps are in the NW Panhandle.

[JDawg512]

Rain Miser (JDawg512) is doing good work here. About 4" of rain at the PWC in the last week and about 1.8" of that has fallen in the last 24 hours. Liquid gold!

Sure seems like El Nino at the moment.

Yes indeed he is! I have gotten 1.5 inches in the last 24 hours, with an inch on top of that with the prior days' rains. 2.5 inches give or take in the last couple days.

Of course I have standing water in the yard now, with no living vegetation to soak it up.

Fell asleep while working on my rain machine so it kept running all night...

It was just wave after wave that basically trained over the same areas right up the I-35 corridor. Got a total of 2.71 inches from yesterday's and this morning's rainfall which makes me the winner lol. The highest amounts in the metro fell right through the heart of Austin. Camp Mabry broke an all time daily rainfall record for Jan 17th. I'll update my total for the entire event tomorrow morning since there's one more chance for showers overnight and then I'll call it a wrap.

It's time to shut the rain machine down for a bit. Soils are at saturation so no point in getting much more than what we already got. We don't need flooding issues like they are seeing in Houston. Hope everyone stays safe over there...

Hey weatherdude1108, might I suggest that you look into getting some native winter grass seed for your lawn which grows green this time of year. That's what I have growing in much of my back yard. Still working on other sections since I'm in the process of converting my entire landscape to native species. Stays green, grows through winter and will help to lessen runoff and soak up standing puddles more quickly.

[Ntxw]

-50s today in interior Alaska including fairbanks. Time to open the freezer door to counter wxman57's thermostat...

We just have to be patient until the last days of this month. I think this thread will be buzzing again by then. The processes in motion to deliver cold and snow working themselves out now.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Let 'er rip!

[wxman57]

-50s today in interior Alaska including fairbanks. Time to open the freezer door to counter wxman57's thermostat...

We just have to be patient until the last days of this month. I think this thread will be buzzing again by then. The processes in motion to deliver cold and snow working themselves out now.

I LOVE it when it's very cold in Alaska (in winter), as that always means it's warm here. Hope it stays cold there through March.

[Golf7070]

Let 'er rip!

Your image didn't show up. May try to post it again

[Golf7070]

Ntxw, I know the first trough will be too far east to effect us alot but do we wait until the mjo gets in the more favorable phases and or the epo ridge to rebuild? I think we have a little better mjo signal than we have had in a while imo

[bubba hotep]

12z GEFS was encouraging in the longer range but the 12z Euro EPS was less so. Also, 18z GFS is a train wreck beyond D10...

[Golf7070]

12z GEFS was encouraging in the longer range but the 12z Euro EPS was less so. Also, 18z GFS is a train wreck beyond D10...

Bubba, what timeframe you looking at before the alutian / Alaskan ridge rebuilds? Just curious. Like I alluded to, the first trough looks too far east for us with +pna

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, I know the first trough will be too far east to effect us alot but do we wait until the mjo gets in the more favorable phases and or the epo ridge to rebuild? I think we have a little better mjo signal than we have had in a while imo

MJO teleconnects well to the PNA/West coast pattern as well wet and dry periods. We're going to get the most of it. For cold you need the EPO to cooperate. While there is an MJO connection, EPO is more large scale hemispheric patterns such as pressures over Siberia, east asian jet, mountain torque etc that drives it.