Texas Winter 2016-2017

Winter Weather Discussion

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CaptinCrunch
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#21 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Aug 08, 2016 9:09 am

It was a good read, but very preliminary as he pointed out. I'm hinging my bet to a weak La Nina this Winter, which can bring about a verity of winter weather to Texas from mild sunny dry weather to extreme cold lasting 2-3 days, to even some measureable winter precip events (ice). Weak El Nino's, ENSO Neutral, and Weak La Nina's are the best possible winters for Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#22 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Aug 08, 2016 2:18 pm

Portastorm wrote:As far as my area of the state is concerned, the last TWO winters have been dumpster fires. One has to believe that this next one will offer more than the last two clunkers.

We're all rooting for you! It has to break eventually and deliver some winter fun.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#23 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:11 am

:uarrow:

Ah Yuke ... here's hoping all of us get something to enjoy this coming winter season. The City of Cleveland finally got a sports championship in 2016. The Chicago Cubs may end up winning the World Series this year. Hey, anything is possible including snow in Austin! :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#24 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Aug 15, 2016 4:45 pm

For those who wish to peruse, the 2016-2017 Farmers Almanac winter outlook has been released. Looks great in my opinion. We will see, it is only August after all.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#25 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Aug 16, 2016 12:50 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#26 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Aug 16, 2016 7:15 pm

Did some research on years that had a large pool of warm water in the Northern Pacific. This large pool would lead to a persistent -EPO for us.
1917-1918
1948-1949
1955-1956
1971-1972
1978-1979
1983-1984
2013-2014

Any other years i should add?
Last edited by TeamPlayersBlue on Wed Aug 17, 2016 9:41 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#27 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 16, 2016 9:52 pm

SST wise 2013 is a decent match. ENSO is also a good match for cold neutral/weak Nina.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#28 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Aug 17, 2016 1:46 am

Not sure why i didnt include it orignially lol.....Dumb on my part.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#29 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 17, 2016 11:25 am

1983-1984 is another, it developed very well around Alaska late fall resulting in the bombastic explosion of the -EPO in December. :D. This was also a failed Nina following a super nino
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#30 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Aug 19, 2016 10:27 am

https://texashurricane.wordpress.com/no ... warm-pool/

Excellent data from a fellow member who PM'd me this information. Here are the years we should use for analog! A few more should be added based on this data. I will add them once i finish some work.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#31 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 19, 2016 12:10 pm

Man those waters in the GOA are mighty warm. My gut feeling we are reverting back to the dominant -EPO hold since there is no significant outside influence (i.e. super Nino/Nina). 2013 blob all over again
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#32 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Fri Aug 19, 2016 12:59 pm

I read on wikipedia that most of the SST transition occurs within the last few months then it doesnt have much transition after that. I believe itss here to stay. Between June and Early Sept is when the transition occurs. Should stick around till about next May at least.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#33 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sun Aug 21, 2016 10:14 pm

Image
Nice map I found from Firsthand Weather from their preliminary southern plains winter forecast.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#34 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Aug 22, 2016 9:12 am

-EPO favors shallow cold air into Texas. Unfortunately, means lots of ice storms. I'll take it over a cold rain though!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#35 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:43 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:-EPO favors shallow cold air into Texas. Unfortunately, means lots of ice storms. I'll take it over a cold rain though!


Excellent! I'd like nothing more than for Austin to reclaim it's rightful title of being: The Freezing Drizzle Capital of Texas.

:roll:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#36 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:03 pm

Look at Porta. Keeping the faith. Rallying behind his Indians...what a year for him!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#37 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:17 pm

Added some new years to the analog. New years added is based on the data in the link posted. The years in the 1800's may not have reliable weather data but im sure there is some material out there to work with.


1880-1881*
1883-1884*
1917-1918
1948-1949
1955-1956
1971-1972
1978-1979
1983-1984
2013-2014
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#38 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Sep 01, 2016 8:17 am

Happy September 1st, as we are now entering Meteorological Fall. Sunrise/Sunset for September 1st CST is around 7:04am/7:53pm and by September 30th sunrise/sunset will be around 7:23am/7:14pm CST. :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#39 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:25 am

I agree with others that it looks like we will have a -EPO/cool ENSO winter and that is a pretty chilly set up around here with maybe slightly below average precip. 2013/2014 seems like as good of an analog as any though seeing 1983/1984 is nice too. Both featured early extreme Arctic blasts and some wintery precip events.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#40 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 02, 2016 8:36 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:I agree with others that it looks like we will have a -EPO/cool ENSO winter and that is a pretty chilly set up around here with maybe slightly below average precip. 2013/2014 seems like as good of an analog as any though seeing 1983/1984 is nice too. Both featured early extreme Arctic blasts and some wintery precip events.


Agreed. I think unlike the last two warm Decembers, this year will feature December as a prime cold month. Maybe even the highlight of the winter as often in weak Nina/cold neutral seasons. I don't know if it will be wall to wall cold but it's likely to be front heavy and quieter end.
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