Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#41 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:32 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:I agree with others that it looks like we will have a -EPO/cool ENSO winter and that is a pretty chilly set up around here with maybe slightly below average precip. 2013/2014 seems like as good of an analog as any though seeing 1983/1984 is nice too. Both featured early extreme Arctic blasts and some wintery precip events.


Agreed. I think unlike the last two warm Decembers, this year will feature December as a prime cold month. Maybe even the highlight of the winter as often in weak Nina/cold neutral seasons. I don't know if it will be wall to wall cold but it's likely to be front heavy and quieter end.


oh I hope so. I've only been here the last 2 Decembers and both well sucked. Lol.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#42 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 02, 2016 9:53 pm

Brent wrote:oh I hope so. I've only been here the last 2 Decembers and both well sucked. Lol.


You missed it by a year :lol:. 2013 was a pretty cold December. It was the 8th coldest in terms of lows. Hard feat these days with the urbanization. Also 4th most freezes for a December, of course we all remember Icemageddon.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#43 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 03, 2016 12:17 am

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:oh I hope so. I've only been here the last 2 Decembers and both well sucked. Lol.


You missed it by a year :lol:. 2013 was a pretty cold December. It was the 8th coldest in terms of lows. Hard feat these days with the urbanization. Also 4th most freezes for a December, of course we all remember Icemageddon.


Yeah... I've read a lot about that year.

Really hoping we get something good early in the winter, because I'm pretty sure late winter I'm gonna be taking a vacation to see snow if I have to. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#44 Postby Ntxw » Mon Sep 05, 2016 11:47 am

If we can keep the current spatial SST configuration, things would be great for cold mongers. Retreating Aleutian low and significant GOA high pressure dome. Without an intrusive Nino, nothing will stop the NE PAC high like last season. The high over Kamatcha/eastern Siberia is good too as that can be a ridge bridge for cross polar flow. On top of that cold neutral and weak Nina will allow for Canada to be very cold yet weak enough to prevent us from averaging too warm like in stronger Nina's. The Atlantic is always a wild card but it rarely cooperates. More interested in how the Pacific does.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#45 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:50 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:oh I hope so. I've only been here the last 2 Decembers and both well sucked. Lol.


You missed it by a year :lol:. 2013 was a pretty cold December. It was the 8th coldest in terms of lows. Hard feat these days with the urbanization. Also 4th most freezes for a December, of course we all remember Icemageddon.


Actually Winter 2013/2014 wasn't all that impressive. November had the cold snap the week before Thanksgiving that gave us our official first freeze (3) and December averaged out 4 degrees below normal with 19 freezes and the 2.1" of frozen precip that fell on the 6th, but also had a high for the month of 79 and a 6 day stretch of highs from 66 - 72 degrees. Christmas was sunny and 58-60 degrees

January was average with less than .5" of total precip, none frozen, and Winter was done by February 11th. Even though February was 3 degrees below the monthly average the average high from Feb 13th - 23rd was 70, and if it wasn't for the first 7 days of the month and the last 3 days February would of been in the top 10 warmest on record.

So I'm hoping for something better for 2016/2017
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#46 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Sep 06, 2016 1:57 pm

Great post. Question, JB loves to see a little Low east of Hawaii underneath the high in the GOA as an indicator of some serious cold air coming down. Think we can get that, and what all does that bring?
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#47 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 06, 2016 2:53 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Brent wrote:oh I hope so. I've only been here the last 2 Decembers and both well sucked. Lol.


You missed it by a year :lol:. 2013 was a pretty cold December. It was the 8th coldest in terms of lows. Hard feat these days with the urbanization. Also 4th most freezes for a December, of course we all remember Icemageddon.


Actually Winter 2013/2014 wasn't all that impressive. November had the cold snap the week before Thanksgiving that gave us our official first freeze (3) and December averaged out 4 degrees below normal with 19 freezes and the 2.1" of frozen precip that fell on the 6th, but also had a high for the month of 79 and a 6 day stretch of highs from 66 - 72 degrees. Christmas was sunny and 58-60 degrees

January was average with less than .5" of total precip, none frozen, and Winter was done by February 11th. Even though February was 3 degrees below the monthly average the average high from Feb 13th - 23rd was 70, and if it wasn't for the first 7 days of the month and the last 3 days February would of been in the top 10 warmest on record.

So I'm hoping for something better for 2016/2017


2013/2014 was below normal every month from Nov to March. Are you sure youre not thinking of 2012/2013? DFW had frozen precip in March that was the notorious wxman57 hijinx. Though snowfall quantity was limited there were numerous smaller events. Any year with more than 50 freezes is impressive. We can pick individual days or weeks but you cant do that for an entire winter, DFW into 70s can happen any year and more often than we think

The only winter with more winter than 2013/2014 since 2000 is 09/10
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#48 Postby Ralph's Weather » Wed Sep 07, 2016 1:25 pm

Ntxw wrote:2013/2014 was below normal every month from Nov to March. Are you sure youre not thinking of 2012/2013? DFW had frozen precip in March that was the notorious wxman57 hijinx. Though snowfall quantity was limited there were numerous smaller events. Any year with more than 50 freezes is impressive. We can pick individual days or weeks but you cant do that for an entire winter, DFW into 70s can happen any year and more often than we think

The only winter with more winter than 2013/2014 since 2000 is 09/10

Winter 13/14 was mainly over by mid-Feb except for 3/2-3. The 2nd brought over 2" of sleet to my place in Lindale, and the 3rd featured a high in the mid 20s and a low in the mid teens with lake effect flurries.
Last edited by Ralph's Weather on Fri Sep 09, 2016 4:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#49 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 08, 2016 10:02 pm

Ntxw wrote:
CaptinCrunch wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
You missed it by a year :lol:. 2013 was a pretty cold December. It was the 8th coldest in terms of lows. Hard feat these days with the urbanization. Also 4th most freezes for a December, of course we all remember Icemageddon.


Actually Winter 2013/2014 wasn't all that impressive. November had the cold snap the week before Thanksgiving that gave us our official first freeze (3) and December averaged out 4 degrees below normal with 19 freezes and the 2.1" of frozen precip that fell on the 6th, but also had a high for the month of 79 and a 6 day stretch of highs from 66 - 72 degrees. Christmas was sunny and 58-60 degrees

January was average with less than .5" of total precip, none frozen, and Winter was done by February 11th. Even though February was 3 degrees below the monthly average the average high from Feb 13th - 23rd was 70, and if it wasn't for the first 7 days of the month and the last 3 days February would of been in the top 10 warmest on record.

So I'm hoping for something better for 2016/2017


2013/2014 was below normal every month from Nov to March. Are you sure youre not thinking of 2012/2013? DFW had frozen precip in March that was the notorious wxman57 hijinx. Though snowfall quantity was limited there were numerous smaller events. Any year with more than 50 freezes is impressive. We can pick individual days or weeks but you cant do that for an entire winter, DFW into 70s can happen any year and more often than we think

The only winter with more winter than 2013/2014 since 2000 is 09/10


2009-2010 was colder than 2013-2014. I notice when the previous winter is La Nina and the next winter is El Nino, it gets very cold like 1904-1905, 1911-1912, 1939-1940, 1976-1977, and 2009-2010.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#50 Postby Ptarmigan » Thu Sep 08, 2016 10:08 pm

Ntxw wrote:If we can keep the current spatial SST configuration, things would be great for cold mongers. Retreating Aleutian low and significant GOA high pressure dome. Without an intrusive Nino, nothing will stop the NE PAC high like last season. The high over Kamatcha/eastern Siberia is good too as that can be a ridge bridge for cross polar flow. On top of that cold neutral and weak Nina will allow for Canada to be very cold yet weak enough to prevent us from averaging too warm like in stronger Nina's. The Atlantic is always a wild card but it rarely cooperates. More interested in how the Pacific does.

Image


The high over Kamchatka is the West Pacific Oscillation (WPO). The high over Gulf of Alaska is East Pacific Oscillation (EPO). They are like the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO). WPO and EPO has much of an affect like NAO and AO.

I am there are other oscillations over Siberia and Scandinavia.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#51 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Sep 09, 2016 2:01 pm

Seasonal/Monthly averages don't always paint a good picture of what each month was like. The 2013/2014 Winter season was considered Colder/Drier than normal. But December was the coldest/wettest month of that winter season. November, February and March only had a below average Monthly temperature due to an extreme weather event that took place during those months, not a result of the actual month itself being colder like December was. Oh, and January was considered average since it was .6 of 1 degree from average. :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#52 Postby Ntxw » Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:54 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Seasonal/Monthly averages don't always paint a good picture of what each month was like. The 2013/2014 Winter season was considered Colder/Drier than normal. But December was the coldest/wettest month of that winter season. November, February and March only had a below average Monthly temperature due to an extreme weather event that took place during those months, not a result of the actual month itself being colder like December was. Oh, and January was considered average since it was .6 of 1 degree from average. :ggreen:


Yeah but we can't cherry pick warm times either, you can do that any month of any year. The main idea is, it is difficult nowadays to get Nov-March below normal consecutively. You won't find a year going back to 2000 with all 4 like in 2013-2014. 2009 only happened from December to March. And then we can say that year wasn't really that snowy, minus the one foot snowstorm. And again 55 freezes beats out anything since 1977-1978.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#53 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Sep 14, 2016 8:54 am

I can confirm but it looks like the warm blob is moving east, right where we want it to be :) Looking at some data, in 2013 it seems it was above normal for temperatures. Hang in there!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#54 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Sep 20, 2016 3:12 pm

Summer still hanging on, it hit 100 yesterday @ DFW Airport making that the 17th 100 degree day this year, and the 11th latest 100 degree day on record. Expecting a stronger cold front by Saturday with some decent rain chances and a string of 80 degree days all next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#55 Postby Tammie » Thu Sep 22, 2016 8:19 am

The NWS just put out their winter forecast. Warm and dry for Texas... Can someone give us hope???
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#56 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:38 am

Here's the last part of this morning's AFD from the NWS FTW


A fairly strong cold front will approach the northwest zones
Saturday night/Sunday morning. The extended models begin to
diverge on solutions on Sunday. The 00Z ECMWF splits the upper
trough into two distinct systems and leaves the southern branch
wrapped up and west of the region through early next week. Under
this scenario, the cold front will most likely move slower and not
enter North Texas until Sunday evening. This scenario could also
produce an extended period of rain with a potential for some
flooding. The 00Z run of the GFS also tries to break a piece of
energy off from the main system on Sunday but never actually cuts
it off. Therefore, the upper trough stays a bit more progressive
which allows the cold front to move through the region quicker.
For now we will not make many changes to the previous forecast
package with regards to PoPs in the Sunday through Wednesday time
frame due the lack of model consistency. Therefore, the best
chance of showers and storms will be Sunday/Sunday night with
decreasing chances from northwest to southeast Monday through
Wednesday. Regardless of which solution, if any, pans out, one
thing that is certain is that much cooler and drier air will move
into North and Central Texas next week. Overnight lows Monday
through Wednesday will cool into the 50s in most locations and
afternoon highs will only reach the 70s and lower 80s.



Looking forward to next week!! :ggreen: Oh, and Happy first day of Fall!! :cheesy:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#57 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 9:44 am

The 00Z Euro is backing off on next week's cold front, I see. Only low-mid 70s in Houston for lows. Up in the DFW area, low to mid 60s for lows. Somewhat of a break in the heat up there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#58 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Sep 22, 2016 10:32 am

wxman57 wrote:The 00Z Euro is backing off on next week's cold front, I see. Only low-mid 70s in Houston for lows. Up in the DFW area, low to mid 60s for lows. Somewhat of a break in the heat up there.

What is Winter? Is that a season? Houston doesn't have seasons. We have warm and hot!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#59 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Sep 22, 2016 12:34 pm

Tammie wrote:The NWS just put out their winter forecast. Warm and dry for Texas... Can someone give us hope???

Firsthand weather is forecasting completely opposite of the NWS. They seem to actually be pretty accurate on their winter forecasts. I guess all we can do it wait and see what verifies.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#60 Postby Lagreeneyes03 » Thu Sep 22, 2016 3:17 pm

wxman57 wrote:The 00Z Euro is backing off on next week's cold front, I see. Only low-mid 70s in Houston for lows. Up in the DFW area, low to mid 60s for lows. Somewhat of a break in the heat up there.


Here's hoping! DFW forecast was going from 10 degrees above normal this week to almost 10 degrees below normal the next few. No. I need pool time until Mid-October. Not ready for nighttime lows in the 50's just yet.
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