Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4981 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:06 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Brent wrote:In other news Chicago is about to do something it hasn't done since records began in 1871... record no snow on the ground in January or February!!! :double:

Oh btw their "snow on the ground" has to be at least a half inch because I was confused too. :P


This is absolutely amazing! I really didn't think we'd see this kind of thing in our lifetime. I spent my first 21 years in Cleveland, Ohio (a similar climate to Chi-town) and I can tell you that such a thing occurring is just ... well, I don't have the adjectives to describe the rarity. Kinda helps put this winter in perspective for all of us.

I'd like to think next winter can't be this bad ... LOL ... but I thought that last year at this time and look what happened!! :eek:


Yup,hard to believe for Chicago (especially since we had 1-2 inches here in Denison early in January).

Maybe there was a deal made somewhere for the Cubs to get that World Series title! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4982 Postby bubba hotep » Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:07 pm

CASA radar 1-min scans showing explosive cell growth over the NE portion of Dallas near 635 and with another cell over the southern portion of Ray Hub.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4983 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 27, 2017 1:38 pm

Man I must be lucky to love storms so much. I like Spring almost as much as winter, if not more.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4984 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Feb 27, 2017 3:13 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:I'll see yall next October! Spring and Summer are boring to me. :ggreen:

I'm the same way. I disappear during the spring and summer.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4985 Postby JDawg512 » Mon Feb 27, 2017 4:18 pm

I typically increase my presence during the wet times of the year so hopefully... expect me more often. :rain: :Partytime:


Going by this afternoon's EWX discussion, the system coming through this weekend may be too far south to give us a lot of rain. Will let the next couple of days go by to see if models want to bring it farther north.

Hopefully those storms up there don't get too out of hand.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4986 Postby dhweather » Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:09 pm

bubba hotep wrote:CASA radar 1-min scans showing explosive cell growth over the NE portion of Dallas near 635 and with another cell over the southern portion of Ray Hub.


Where are you getting to see CASA radar ??
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4987 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:32 pm

DFW ends February and winter with a fittingly 80F degrees. That about seals it as the warmest winter on record, none other beats it. It's likely to have the fewest freezes also. The couple of cold snaps first of the season were brief but quite impressive however short lived as the winter heat waves erased the cold anomalies and more. So there you have it, a historic winter...historically warm the stuff of legends, winter of wxman57's joy. He got his 1986 repeat and more.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4988 Postby dhweather » Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:33 pm

weatherdude1108 wrote:
JDawg512 wrote:We are seeing global shifts in weather patterns as well as climate patterns. This trend is going to continue and likely speed up. The planet is hot, a second possible Niño indicates that it's natural cooling mechanism did not do enough to alleviate the problem. We are in uncharted territory and I wouldn't dare make a bet on what long range forecasts are showing at this point. That's just my two cents for what it's worth, take it or leave it if you wish.


Our next chance of rain currently doesn't look too significant but at least there is another chance afterwards next Tues into Wed.


With every year that passes by, I think I am tending to agree with you. Although there are some people like John Casey, who used to work for NASA, that say we are headed into another Grande Solar Minimum/mini Ice Age, based on natural earth cycles and sun spot cycles. I'm not seeing any evidence of an Ice Age at this point, at least on our end of the globe.

Maybe this elongated warm spell LOCALLY/North America could be due to a climate shifting balance towards an earth-wide overall Ice Age climate(?), but that is pure and total guess, not backed up by anything. I have no idea what the climate in Texas was like during the last Ice Age/Grande Solar Minimum. That would be interesting to research. I would love to find out.

I don't think the earth's atmosphere has never had such a vast, man-made conglomerate of chemicals, gases, and aerosols thrown into its system in such a relatively short period of time in it's long history.

Then like you said, another strong Nino signal, immediately on the heals of an almost non-existent Nina? Earth is probably readjusting itself to a another new balance. It really is uncharted territory with respect to the human record IMO.



My quantitative analysis nerd self did the math. Earth is 4.5 BILLION years old. We have maybe 100 years a reliable climate data, so a sample size of 100, for a 4.5 BILLION point data set.

To be 95% accurate, with a margin of error of 3%, you need a sample size of 1068 years. Preferably from throughout the 4.5 billion years, not all back loaded from the data set.

To be 80% accurate, with a margin of error of 3%, you need a sample size of 456 years. Again, you need samples from the entire distribution, not just the last 100 years.

Statistically speaking, nobody in their right mind can say with certainty that we are headed for Ice Age or Global Warming. Nobody has a clue if this is a normal cycle, or even something that happens every 1000 years.

That said, we need to be as clean as we can be with emissions, chemicals, etc. Earth has never had 7 Billion people to support before either. We should take excellent care of her.

End of rant.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4989 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 27, 2017 10:40 pm

dhweather wrote:Statistically speaking, nobody in their right mind can say with certainty that we are headed for Ice Age or Global Warming. Nobody has a clue if this is a normal cycle, or even something that happens every 1000 years.

That said, we need to be as clean as we can be with emissions, chemicals, etc. Earth has never had 7 Billion people to support before either. We should take excellent care of her.

End of rant.


You are definitely correct any weather data we have is way too short a time period, and good data is even shorter. We do have to care for the earth, we cannot say we control the weather or drive it, but at the same time say we don't have any effect either. You can just take into account urban heat island and how people can alter the environment around us as a small scale example. We have to take care of her, if you've been to Chinese cities you know what I mean. The very air you breathe is a poison, blue skies is all but rare there.

If another Nino, and especially if it's mod-strong one, then you can expect more heat added to the atmosphere on the backend of the event through the natural cycle. While we can argue about other things, there is a direct correlation to the Super Nino of 2015 spiking global temps dramatically.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4990 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:15 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW ends February and winter with a fittingly 80F degrees. That about seals it as the warmest winter on record, none other beats it. It's likely to have the fewest freezes also. The couple of cold snaps first of the season were brief but quite impressive however short lived as the winter heat waves erased the cold anomalies and more. So there you have it, a historic winter...historically warm the stuff of legends, winter of wxman57's joy. He got his 1986 repeat and more.


At least as sad and pathetic as this winter was... we can say we witnessed history. I still find it amazing in the warmest winter on record it snowed and hit 14 degrees in Dallas. :lol:

I mean, it has to be better next winter, doesn't it?
Last edited by Brent on Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4991 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:15 pm

I love this forum! There is such a great group of posters on here, with a tremendous wealth of knowledge from everyone.
:D
I just take it all in, trying to add what little I can to the mix, from other experts.

Anyway, I'm thankful my coworker told me about this site several years ago. I learn something new every time I visit. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4992 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 28, 2017 7:56 am

One thing I'd caution - don't take the last couple of winters and try to make a bedrock principle with them...yet anyway.

Case in point was the 2005 hurricane season, perhaps the most infamous one of modern times. Plenty of people beat the drums about that season being indicative of what was to come in the future. But that hasn't been the case and we haven't seen an endless parade of Katrina's, Rita's and Wilma's.

In all honesty, aside from Portastorm's ongoing snow drought and the lack of a 1984 or 1989-esque freeze, there have been some significant winters and winter weather events from 2000 until 2014. (Many were in North Texas but not all - South Texas White Christmas in 2004 and/or the Central and East Texas April 2007 Easter snow anyone? :D )

But likewise, there weren't very many of those events during most of the 1990s.

The bottom line is that we live in Texas and not Montana. Austin lies on a latitude line that roughly incorporates El Paso and the Gulf Coast, Dallas on one that is roughly in line with Jackson, Birmingham and Atlanta.

Yes, we're all further west, but we're also so far south that winter weather events just aren't going to be an every other week occurrence here. Just memorable and exciting when they do happen.

Be patient and we'll eventually have some winter weather fun again. No matter what Wxman57 tries to say.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4993 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 28, 2017 7:59 am

And by the way, happy last day of meteorological winter!

Keep dreaming big snow, giant winter storm, frigid McFarland Signature dreams!

:froze: :cold: :froze:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4994 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 28, 2017 8:06 am

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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4995 Postby Portastorm » Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:22 am

Texas Snowman wrote:One thing I'd caution - don't take the last couple of winters and try to make a bedrock principle with them...yet anyway.

Case in point was the 2005 hurricane season, perhaps the most infamous one of modern times. Plenty of people beat the drums about that season being indicative of what was to come in the future. But that hasn't been the case and we haven't seen an endless parade of Katrina's, Rita's and Wilma's.

In all honesty, aside from Portastorm's ongoing snow drought and the lack of a 1984 or 1989-esque freeze, there have been some significant winters and winter weather events from 2000 until 2014. (Many were in North Texas but not all - South Texas White Christmas in 2004 and/or the Central and East Texas April 2007 Easter snow anyone? :D )

But likewise, there weren't very many of those events during most of the 1990s.

The bottom line is that we live in Texas and not Montana. Austin lies on a latitude line that roughly incorporates El Paso and the Gulf Coast, Dallas on one that is roughly in line with Jackson, Birmingham and Atlanta.

Yes, we're all further west, but we're also so far south that winter weather events just aren't going to be an every other week occurrence here. Just memorable and exciting when they do happen.

Be patient and we'll eventually have some winter weather fun again. No matter what Wxman57 tries to say.


Very well said, Snowman. Good thing for us all to read and to keep it in perspective.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4996 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:43 am

The biggest lesson I have learned over the years and especially the past year or two is keep your mind open to possibilities even if you don't agree with it. If you are stuck on one mindset and unable to adjust, you won't learn. Mother nature does not always follow the rule and even the meteorological community can still get stunned in this advanced day and age. Take for example the QBO not flipping, this was a huge "it can't and shouldn't happen" moment, that here may not have made a huge buzz but is something of those in the know against all known wisdom. I try my best to stick to the numbers, I have realized that when you stray into the anecdotal realm, the "it should do this" or, "this is what it has done", or "I think it will do that"...that's when you get into trouble. That said, there is a difference to forecasting vs model interpretation, the two is often clumped as the same too often.

Just my two cents on this last meteorological day of winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4997 Postby gboudx » Tue Feb 28, 2017 9:45 am

Yeah I'm not ready to accept that wxman57's persistent finger on the thermostat has changed the Texas weather forever. I've only lived here since 95 and have seen some crazy extremes. Seems like the extremes are the norm. Looks like I'll have some leftover firewood for next Winter. Again.

Of course, if wxman57 did change it forever and we become a desert, we can take turns kicking him in the bootay until it's uncomfortable for him to sit on his bike seat.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4998 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 28, 2017 10:09 am

One final winter thread post for me. From Jeff Lindner this morning:

February will end like much of the month has been…hot!

BUSH IAH has set 5 record highs this month and tied or exceeded 80 degrees 10 times. February 2017 is the first February since 1950 where the low temperature did not fall into the 30’s. The coldest overnight low this month was 40 on February 16.

Warm air advection pattern remains in place across TX this morning with an extremely warm start with low temperatures averaging in the low to mid 70’s or some 20-30 degrees above normal. While the atmosphere is conditionally unstable, 850mb winds from the SSW/SW have helped to bring a warm layer of air from northern MX across the region effectively capping the air mass.

A cold front attached to a northern US storm system will slide down the plains and across TX today and tonight. While moisture does pool ahead of this boundary, mid level capping should preclude much more than a line of showers or an isolated thunderstorm where local lift is maximized. Think the best chances for a thunderstorm will be NE of Houston and really NE of Lake Livingston where capping is weakest and upper forcing strongest.

Front will return the area to near normal late February temperatures with cold air advection on Wednesday helping to keep temperatures in the 60’s. Low temperatures will fall into the 40’s on Thursday and Friday mornings which will be near normal for this time of year.

Next storm system moves into NW MX this weekend and then heads for TX over the weekend into next week. Look for a surface trough to form along the TX coast at some point this weekend. Models are not in the best agreement on when this trough will form and what period (Sat, Sun, Mon) look to have the best rain chances. Overall looks like a decent rainfall setup, especially for the coastal areas at some point this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will rise to above normal levels again by this weekend.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#4999 Postby MGC » Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:47 am

It is nature, you have your cold winters and you have your warm winters. It just happens the past couple of winters have been warm. Winter of 13-14 was quite cold, so it is just natures way of balancing thing out. I had 4 morning of at or below freezing this winter...not bad.....MGC
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#5000 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:51 am

Jeez they put Indiana under a moderate risk and are cautioning for night time tornadoes. Could be cutting it close here looks like we might have 1000 CAPE and some intense shear while broken lined cells moving through, If the cells arrive a little bit later our CAPE actually increases to near 2000 J.
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