Texas Winter 2016-2017

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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#81 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:30 am

The weather channel keeps wanting to put us under the area for much higher chances for above average winter temps and much below precipitation. Hopefully something changes or I fear another warm, dry winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#82 Postby gboudx » Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:31 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:The weather channel keeps wanting to put us under the area for much higher chances for above average winter temps and much below precipitation. Hopefully something changes or I fear another warm, dry winter.


I've seen enough forecasts for our Winter that I'm not buying much firewood this year. I still have a lot leftover from last Winter's fail.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#83 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:17 pm

gboudx wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:The weather channel keeps wanting to put us under the area for much higher chances for above average winter temps and much below precipitation. Hopefully something changes or I fear another warm, dry winter.


I've seen enough forecasts for our Winter that I'm not buying much firewood this year. I still have a lot leftover from last Winter's fail.

You and me both. I cut a ton last year thinking it would be a great winter. I barely burned any. Most all of the forecasts I have seen have all been warm and dry except I think two, Farmers Almanac, which really doesn't count in my mind and Firsthand Weather's.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#84 Postby Ntxw » Tue Oct 18, 2016 4:56 pm

I'm not a fan of long range forecasts this year. I'm not sure where you can conclude warm or cold winter when there is no big force to really signal what will happen. Unless one says what is happening now will continue which is a fair assessment but does not always work.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#85 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:01 pm

I literally have no confidence in this winter here in Texas after last "winter"(and how everyone said it'd be so great too...)... and in fact, I'm planning on using PTO at work in January or February to go somewhere snowy. It's gotten to that point... I sat out last winter and didn't see a flake and it's not happening again.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#86 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Oct 19, 2016 3:38 am

I suspect we will see warmer than average temperatures for most of the winter, with a few notable exceptions. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#87 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Oct 19, 2016 8:29 am

I been watching the snow and ice coverage across the arctic and east Asia down into Alaska since the first of Oct. So far this October has been very consistent to Oct 2015 in that we are behind in the amount of sea ice and snow coverage compared to the the Octobers of 2010 and 2013. The only bright spot is that by November 15th all 4 of the years (2010, 13, 15, 16) were pretty much consistent. Much like last year there is NO build up of arctic air anywhere across Asia or the arctic at this time. That wasn't the case for going into the Winters of 2010 & 2013. Nasa just released it's September 2016 overview in it was the warmest September on record around the world, and October is on pace to do the same. sucks! :cry:

Oh and I have 1/2 a cord left over from last winter as well.... :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#88 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 19, 2016 8:43 am

October Snowfall across North America for day 292 (to date) is the greatest since 2002. Except for Alaska which is running below normal.

See my post on why this dramatic increase is occuring in the fall thread

Texas Fall Thread

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#89 Postby orangeblood » Wed Oct 19, 2016 8:43 am

CaptinCrunch wrote:I been watching the snow and ice coverage across the arctic and east Asia down into Alaska since the first of Oct. So far this October has been very consistent to Oct 2015 in that we are behind in the amount of sea ice and snow coverage compared to the the Octobers of 2010 and 2013. The only bright spot is that by November 15th all 4 of the years (2010, 13, 15, 16) were pretty much consistent. Much like last year there is NO build up of arctic air anywhere across Asia or the arctic at this time. That wasn't the case for going into the Winters of 2010 & 2013. Nasa just released it's September 2016 overview in it was the warmest September on record around the world, and October is on pace to do the same. sucks! :cry:

Oh and I have 1/2 a cord left over from last winter as well.... :cry:


Not sure what data you're looking at but that observation doesn't appear correct....we seem to be well ahead of schedule for this time of year regarding Northern Hemisphere snow coverage (Purple shade is above normal, Red shade below normal). If this trend continues and upper level pattern cooperates, there will be plenty of cold air to tap into to kick off the winter season

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#90 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:57 am

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/ims/

Gif Data Archive

Look at October 15th as that was the last time I viewed the images, for 2016, 2015, 2010, 2013. Again Alaska and Eastern Asia as well as the arctic sea ice were well behind in coverage compared to 10, and 13. Yes, thanks to the large storm system that slammed into the Pacific NW last week much of central Canada as well as the higher elevations of the Rockies in the Northern States saw heavy snows.

This is the Rutgers image also from the 15th

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#91 Postby JDawg512 » Wed Oct 19, 2016 1:22 pm

I'll also add that despite the seemingly quick refreeze of arctic ice a few weeks back, it has since slowed conciderably and has reached the 2012 line for this point in the year. It's not rising steadily back up and at its current rate will dip below where 2012 was going into November. Here's there link, the graph can be seen in the upper right corner.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Going by recent historical trends, this particular instance is unique.

Now what does this all mean for our little neck of the woods this winter? Who can say. What concerns me is the kind of storm pattern we may see (or lack thereof). Is October a preview of the rest of the Autumn going into winter?

Going by my amaturish attempt at a rough guess for a winter outlook, I came to the conclusion that we may see average to slightly below average temps and average precipitation. Of course I wouldn't bet on that outcome at all.

I think most of you know me well enough by now. Just give me some regular intervals of rain and I'll be happy... If we don't see much rain this winter, I'll be mad. I'm the rain guy! :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#92 Postby Ntxw » Wed Oct 19, 2016 3:43 pm

I will say I agree with the data the arctic is suffering this year and has been. It is not a strong correlation to winter because the cold blasts generally come from NW Canada or cross polar flow from Siberia. They are often much colder than the arctic is midwinter. This is a misconception that arctic air is colder than the previous two mentioned. We just generalize the term 'arctic' with blasts when actually the predominant cold source is NW Canada. If the arctic is very cold we are likely quite warm as all of the cold is bottled up.

And of course the weather pattern one season do not always reflect the same outcome in another season.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#93 Postby Portastorm » Thu Oct 20, 2016 9:09 am

The National Science Foundation is dipping its toes into the water, so to speak, and trying forecasts. They have a "colder" look to this winter if they end up being right. Check this out:

https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#94 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Oct 20, 2016 11:48 am

I still think we are on track for a chilly winter or at least some big blasts this winter. Things to note.

1. Still have the warm pool even though it has cooled some. Also, warm water SW of the warm pool will likely migrate towards the GOA. I freaked out earlier thinking the warm pool disappeared, but in 2013, the summer was VERY warm like this past summer, then COOLED drastically for Sept and Oct, only to become VERY strong again for the rest of the winter. So, its likely this could still be a major factor for our weather.

2. Region just off the coast of SA (1+2) is cooling more. This is important because we def dont want this region to be warm.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/
3. Region SW of Mexico being warm makes me nervous. This could promote high pressure and lead to miserable warm winter days for us.

4. The SAI is looking good for us. There is a massive blocking taking place in northern Europe which will lead to more cold and snowy conditions in the region.

These factors are looking more positive then not for big cold shots and a dreary winter. Feel free to critique any theories i have :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#95 Postby Portastorm » Thu Oct 20, 2016 1:41 pm

Meanwhile, NOAA released its 2016-17 winter forecast. I think it was written by wxman57.

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#96 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Oct 20, 2016 2:02 pm

Yeah i saw that, what do those guys know!
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#97 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Oct 21, 2016 7:11 am

Work has been crazy busy so I have not had the time to review data like in have in years past. With that said, it looks to me that many of these forecasts are primarily ENSO based, but with this year being a very weak NIna if at all I think the northern indices (EPO and AO) will control our weather. Northern snow is indicating -AO and the Gulf of Alaska is indicating -EPO. The cool ENSO means there is a lack of a warm Pacific jet. To me this adds up to a periodically cold winter with below normal precip. I am thinking 2014/2015 type with hope for 2013/2014.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#98 Postby wxman57 » Fri Oct 21, 2016 7:59 am

Portastorm wrote:Meanwhile, NOAA released its 2016-17 winter forecast. I think it was written by wxman57.

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north


Clearly, they're the best forecasters in the world. Looks like lots of biking this winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#99 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Oct 24, 2016 1:10 pm

I believe it when I see it. I recall we were suppose to have a very wet and cold winter last year and poof nothing.
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Re: Texas Winter 2016-2017

#100 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Oct 24, 2016 1:40 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Portastorm wrote:Meanwhile, NOAA released its 2016-17 winter forecast. I think it was written by wxman57.

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-predicts-warmer-drier-south-and-cooler-wetter-north


Clearly, they're the best forecasters in the world. Looks like lots of biking this winter.


Yeah, when it is 90 and warm outside in December, nails. 32 and snowing, the models are on crack and the experts are drunk.
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