Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

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weathaguyry
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Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#1 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Sep 09, 2016 7:07 pm

Hi guys,

I know I am posting this a little too soon, as it is still technically Summer. The heat here on Long Island (Not sure if LI qualifies as the Mid- Atlantic, but whatever) has been exceptionally horrible! It was over 90 degrees today, and over 90 degrees+my biology classroom that backs up into the greenhouse+double period science in the warmest part of the day= NO GOOD! I am sick of this, and would like some insight as to when some of that Fall air will kick in, and what this winter will be like, as last year there was no snow until about 1/2 inch fell on Jan. 17th, then about a week later, 31" of snow in front of my house. Will the cool neutral/weak nina have any effects on us? I'd like to hear you guys' opinion!
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#2 Postby Bizzles » Thu Dec 08, 2016 10:56 am

000
FXUS61 KPHI 081445
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
945 AM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FB posted and tweeted WPC mid shift Day 4 winter prob 1/4" w.e.
outlook.

Low pressure continues to drift across eastern Canada Friday, then
moves offshore and ends up south of Greenland by Saturday. Meanwhile
high pressure remains across the central part of the country. This
will keep a steady west to northwest flow across the area. On
Friday, although the strong vorticity impulse is expected to be east
of the area, there will remain steep low-mid level lapse rates
across the area with enhanced moisture as well. With the strong
northwest flow, it is possible that some lake effect streamers could
set up and bring some snow showers/flurries to portions of the area.
The best chances would be across the northern portions of the area,
so we keep scattered/isolated snow showers/flurries there. Elsewhere
we will keep isolated flurries/sprinkles. On Saturday, the steep
lapse rates and moisture combination lifts northward some. We`ll
keep isolated snow showers/flurries for the far northern counties,
but will keep flurries/sprinkles for the middle half of the area as
the northwest flow begins to weaken some, so the flurries may not
have as great of a reach southward as on Friday. While most areas
probably won`t see much snow accumulation Friday and Saturday, if
any snow bands or squalls do develop, it would not be surprising
to see some accumulating snow in some areas.

High pressure briefly affects the area Saturday night, providing dry
conditions. Friday and Saturday will be a cold and windy period,
with Friday being the windiest, and Saturday being the coolest of
the two.

The high builds offshore Sunday ahead of the next storm system. As
this happens, it is possible that some showers could develop
during the day across the area as a short wave passes just to our
north and spreads an area of moisture across the area. However,
the best chance of precipitation looks to be Sunday night into
Monday. A warm front is forecast to lift across the area late on
Sunday night into Monday as an area of low pressure is forecast to
move near or just north of the area. Conditions should be cold
enough overnight Sunday into Monday for a period of snow to affect
a good portion of the area, before much of the area warms up and
precipitation turns to rain during the day Monday. There is the
potential for an accumulating snow for much of the area, with the
northern half having the greatest potential.
As the low continues
to lift northward, a cold front is expected to move across the
area late in the day Monday and overnight. Precipitation chances
should diminish behind the cold front.

On Tuesday and Tuesday night, the GFS is indicating another cold
front moving across the area as low pressure passes to our north.
It in turn brings a period of rain and snow to the area late Tuesday
into early Wednesday. The ECMWF does not have as strong of a cold
frontal passage, so it does not bring any precipitation to the area.
For now, we`ll introduce a small chance into the forecast.

&&

$$

Long Term...Robertson/Drag 945A
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#3 Postby angelwing » Sat Dec 10, 2016 7:15 pm

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, WHICH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW TO ICE.

* ACCUMULATIONS...GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...ALONG WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY SLIGHTLY EXCEED 3 INCHES IN PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY NEW JERSEY
DEPENDING ON WHEN SNOW CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP SOMETIME MIDDAY
SUNDAY WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING. SNOWFALL SHOULD INTENSIFY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN TURN
TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 3 AND 6 AM MONDAY, THEN TO
NON FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN 7 AM AND 10 AM MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE TREACHEROUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ON ALL UNTREATED SURFACES.

* TEMPERATURES...FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S SUNDAY RISING
SLOWLY TOWARD DAWN MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT
HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSMOUNTHOLLY.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#4 Postby angelwing » Sun Dec 11, 2016 3:21 pm

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

...A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF
THE AREA NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR INTO MONDAY MORNING...

NJZ012-015-PAZ101-103-104-106-120815-
/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-161212T0900Z/
MIDDLESEX-MERCER-WESTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-
EASTERN MONTGOMERY-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...HONEY BROOK...
OXFORD...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...
MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
315 PM EST SUN DEC 11 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 1 INCH...ALONG WITH
AROUND A TRACE OF ICE.

* TIMING...A PERIOD LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. SNOW
SHOULD INTENSIFY TOWARD MIDNIGHT BEFORE CHANGING TO FREEZING
RAIN BETWEEN 1 AM AND 3 AM...THEN TO NON FREEZING RAIN AROUND
4 AM MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ICE AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY CREATE SLIPPERY ROAD
CONDITIONS.

* WINDS...SOUTH 5 MPH OR LESS.

* VISIBILITIES...ONE HALF TO ONE MILE AT TIMES.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BY CALLING OUR TRAINED SPOTTER LINE...POSTING TO THE NWS MOUNT
HOLLY FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER @NWSMOUNTHOLLY.

SNOWFALL AND ICE ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO
EXPERIMENTAL PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST
EVENT ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER

&&

$$
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#5 Postby Bizzles » Mon Dec 12, 2016 10:34 am

Saw this link in the previous post...

http://www.weather.gov/PHI/WINTER

Pretty cool stuff!
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#6 Postby Bizzles » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:49 am

Looks like we have a decent shot at some snow Fri into Sat (no accumulation tho)

535
FXUS61 KPHI 141118
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
618 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A strong cold front is forecast to approach from the northwest
this evening and it should pass through our region after midnight.
An area of mid level clouds is expected to precede and accompany
the front, with some stratocumulus possible in its wake.

The guidance continues to suggest that scattered snow showers may
develop just ahead of the front in northeastern Maryland and
Delaware around midnight. The light snow showers are then expected
to pass across southern New Jersey before moving out to sea. Any
snow accumulations should be limited to only a few tenths of an
inch.


Additional snow showers and flurries may affect the Poconos and
northwestern New Jersey late tonight in the strong cold advection
following the frontal passage.

A westerly wind around 5 to 10 mph is forecast in advance of the
cold front. Once the boundary passes, the wind should become west
northwest and speeds are expected to increase to 10 to 20 MPH with
gusts building to 20 to 30 MPH.

Temperatures are anticipated to fall into the teens from the
Interstate 95 Corridor northwestward into the Poconos. Lows should
be in the lower and middle 20s on the upper Delmarva, in southern
and central New Jersey and in extreme southeastern Pennsylvania.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
We are in for a bit of a roller coaster on temps and a stark
reminder that it is indeed December over the extendd pd.

Thu will be very cold as a strong area of Canadian High pres
builds in. This will usher in the coldest air since last winter.
It will also be very breezy with nwly wind in gusting to in the 30
to 40 mph range during the afternoon, which will make it feel even
colder with the wind chill. The wind will subside Thu night, but
temps will plummet into the single digits and teens. Friday is
likely to be about the same, though with less wind, as the high
will be virtually overhead, so it won`t feel as brutal.

Then, the high will shift ewd as low pres takes shape in the
plains. This low will move newd Fri night and into the Grtlks on
Sat. The low will drag a wmfnt thru the region on Sat and precip
will accompany the front and shud develop overnight Fri. Temps
will be cold enough at the onset for snow everywhere, thru Sat
mrng.
Then as temps warm aloft and eventually at the sfc the snow
will change over to rain from se to nw durg the day on Sat with
all areas eventually seeing rain. Temps should be well into the
40s from the I-95 corridor s and e, and even into the 50s over the
extreme s Sat aftn. Early accums indicate psbly a couple of inches
n of I-78 and genly an inch or less s of that before any
changeover occurs.

However, as is often the case this time of year, with the cold
air in place at the sfc, it often takes longer than fcst to scour
out, so it would not be a surprise if wintry precip holds on
longer than anticipated before the changeover, especially n and w.
In these areas, there is also the possibility of some icing.

Rain is then expected to fall Sat night into Sun. Temps will be
warm enough Sat night for all liquid rain everywhere except for
the Poconos and perhaps extreme nrn NJ. The cdfnt assocd with the
low will move acrs the area durg Sun and the rain will come to an
end from w to e.

The remainder of the extendd pd looks dry. There cud be some
lingering precip acrs the Delmarva Sun night until the front
clears but confidence is low. Temps next week look to return
closer to nrml, albeit below.

&&

$$

Short Term...Iovino
Long Term...Nierenberg
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#7 Postby Bizzles » Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:51 am

535
FXUS61 KPHI 141118
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
618 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016

.CLIMATE...
Our first true shot of winter air will move into the region later
this week with near record or record cold highs on Thursday and
Friday. Low temperatures the morning of the 16th look to stay
above record values.

Daily record min temperatures (F) December 16th...
ACY: 8 1968
PHL: 9 1876
ILG: 5 1910
ABE: 1 1951
TTN: 9 1917
RDG: 5 1917
GED: -7 1958
MPO: -7 1917

Daily record coldest max temperatures (F) for December 15th and
16th...
ACY: 22 (1915) and 23 (1916)
PHL: 22 (1914) and 22 (1917)
ILG: 24 (1904) and 21 (1917)
ABE: 22 (1943) and 15 (1951)
TTN: 29 (2010) and 29 (2010)
GED: 30 (2010) and 26 (2010)
RDG: 30 (2010) and 26 (2010)
MPO: 19 (2010) and 21 (2010)

&&

$$

Climate...Gaines/Klein
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#8 Postby Bizzles » Thu Dec 15, 2016 10:25 am

Got about 1/2" btw midnight and 2am this morning!
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#9 Postby angelwing » Thu Dec 15, 2016 5:24 pm

Nothing here :grr:
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#10 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Dec 18, 2016 10:21 am

Got about 3.5 inches here on Long Island yesterday, I felt that it could have been a lot more if the snow hadn't switched to freezing rain at 9AM. It was still only about 27 degrees when it switched over, so we probably could of pushed 5 inches if it hadn't switched, it wasn't 32 degrees until about 11:30AM which was amazing. Unfortunate to snow lovers like me, but fortunate to people who hate snow, the pattern looks to be getting quieter, with no real threats of snow in the near future.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#11 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Dec 24, 2016 3:15 pm

It sure doesn't feel like christmas eve out there, it rained earlier today and now it stopped and it's in the 40's. Just think back to last Saturday, and I had 3 and a half inches of snow at my house. I made a huge pile of snow in my backyard last weekend after the snow, and there is still some snow on the pile, so i guess you can say that it will be a "white christmas" to some degree... Anyways, a very merry christmas and happy holidays to all of you out there!
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#12 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Jan 01, 2017 1:58 pm

Happy new year! With temperatures in the upper 40's, and with plenty of sunshine, 2017 has gotten off to a great start, hopefully winter isn't too brutal to us this year, but a nice snowstorm or two is always good, depending on who you ask...
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#13 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:08 pm

0z NAM plotting as I speak, Fridays pop-up system looks to be interesting, NAM earlier was showing 3-5inch amounts on Long Island, 12z GFS was about 3 inches, but backed off to 1-2, Canadian has been low, with around an inch, it looks to be that the second system will be no issue for us, but this looks like it will be a close call, and a nowcasting situation once the time comes, those nights are always stressful, you can get cross-eyed looking at the radar and the HRRR model runs :double:
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#14 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Jan 05, 2017 9:27 pm

As of now, not all the snow is hitting the ground, but it has started a bit earlier than expected, and I think that might lead to a little bit more snow for here at least, it looks like the system for this weekend may be a player again, and the NAM model earlier today showed 6+ inch amounts over Long Island!!!
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#15 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Jan 06, 2017 4:03 pm

Last night was a bust here for us on long island, the forecast was for up to 4 inches of snow here, and we only got about an inch, maybe an inch and a half, the system for this weekend still looks to be in play, and it all depends where it sets up, we can get flurries, or 8 inches of snow, we shall see...
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#16 Postby angelwing » Fri Jan 06, 2017 5:36 pm

We got about 2-3 inches in Kulpsville
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#17 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Jan 07, 2017 8:14 am

Snow about to get in here, a Winter Storm Warning has been issued for us, calling for 4-8" of snow, we shall see how that turns out, i would say that 4-6 inches of snow seems reasonable at this point, snow amounts sharply drop as you go west, but personally i think northeastern Pennsylvania could get 1-2 inches of snow, with 2-4 inches around and in the Philadelphia area, that 2-4 inch line could be a little farther north though, perhaps into the Allentown area. Well stay safe everyone, today looks to be a day of hot chocolate and netflix with the fireplace going :lol:
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#18 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Jan 11, 2017 5:21 pm

Well going back to last Saturday, we got 7 inches on the nose here, most has melted though from rain and warm temperatures, well that blows the whole "maybe this snow will last until spring" thing
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#19 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Jan 13, 2017 8:39 pm

Well, warm pattern looks to be sticking around for a while, but as mentioned by Joe Cioffi, the pattern appears to be shifting by the end of the month, and we could end up with a snowy pattern near the end of the month, the question is though, will that pattern stick around for a while, or will it only be temporary? (Shout out to meteorologist Joe Cioffi, he gives wonderfully detailed forecasts daily for the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, and he even responds to comments on his videos, and will give people specific amounts of snow for their towns!!!, go search him up on youtube!)
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#20 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Jan 18, 2017 4:51 pm

A slightly rainy, gloomy, uneventful day in terms of weather, all year you look forward to winter, only for it to turn into "maybe it'll get cold towards the end of the month" :grr:
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