Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:35 pm

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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#42 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Mar 11, 2017 6:00 pm

NWS office in Charlotte has issued a Winter Weather Advisory until noon tomorrow. They are now forecasting 1-2 inches of snowfall there into tomorrow.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#43 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Mar 12, 2017 8:12 am

Just talked to a buddy of mine up in Charlotte. Snow has accumulated there, about 2 inches on the ground. Nice little late season snow event there this morning as the upper shortwave pivots through the region. Also, the changeover has just occurred as far south as Columbia, SC, where light snow is now being reported there.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#44 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Mar 12, 2017 4:50 pm

Good Evening Everyone! This impending Blizzard looks to be very powerful, as well as rare and fascinating to find in March! I would assume that Washington D.C, Philadelphia, NYC, and Boston will see a foot plus from this storm. I see the heaviest area of snow in Eastern Pennsylvania, throughout Northern and Central New Jersey as well as in and around NYC, and in Nassau County on Long Island, as well as Coastal Western Connecticut. In these places I would assume a general 14- 18 inches of snow, but there may be some swaths of 18-24 inches and possibly some 24+ inch amounts depending where the banding sets up, which I believe these pockets will be in North-Central New Jersey, in and in and around the NYC area, as well as Nassau County on Long Island, and coastal Western Connecticut. The New NAM 3km model agrees most with this idea. I think that the track may be a little closer to the coast, not as close as the Canadian 12z was showing but still close enough to cause mixing issues in coastal New Jersey, Suffolk County, NY, and Cape Cod, MA. I believe that amounts there will be about 10-14 inches depending on the exact track of the storm, we should have a better idea of the exact track by tomorrow afternoon. I would venture a guess and say that schools will be closed Tuesday, and have delays/closings on Wednesday, but I am not a school, so I cannot be 100% sure what will happen. I feel that Coastal Flooding will be a big issue as well, with widespread tides 2-3 feet above normal from Maryland to Maine. I cannot rule out some higher water levels on the coast of New Jersey, the South and East shores of Long Island, and the East Facing shores of Massachusetts. Wind will be mostly an issue confined to Eastern LI, and Cape Cod, however some high wind gusts cannot be ruled out elsewhere, and the winds will still be strong, hence the need for Blizzard Watches in the areas they are posted in.

18z NAM 12km:
Image

18z NAM 4km:
Image

18z NAM 3km:
Image

The Snow Forecast from Meteorologist Joe Cioffi, who does an absolutely wonderful job explaining his forecasts and giving wonderful discussions! Please Subscribe to him on YouTube!!!!!!!!!!!
Image

Here is a link to his youtube channel as well
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgbLhz8ataTPSMxkULKgNmA

I'll post more updates as more information comes in :D !
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#45 Postby Bizzles » Mon Mar 13, 2017 6:18 am

030
FXUS61 KPHI 130916
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
516 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds across the region through tonight before moving
offshore on Monday. Low pressure develops off the Carolinas Monday
night, then becomes an intense storm east of New Jersey Tuesday,
before tracking past New England Tuesday night. A strong northwest
flow follows Wednesday. High pressure then builds across the region
Wednesday night through Friday. Another storm system is possible
next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
It will be the calm before the storm as high pressure briefly builds
over our region before quickly shifting off shore. By the end of the
day expect to see cyclogensis off the Carolina coast which will be
the beginnings of our snow storm. The 00Z model runs continued the
trend of backing off the arrival of precip in our region. As noted
by the previous shift no only with the best lift stay to our south,
but initially the boundary layer will be quite dry making it very
unlikely that we will see any precip in our area through the day
time hours. However, clouds will be on the increase as we get later
in to the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
Multiple headline changes with this forecast package.

Blizzard warning now in effect for Ocean, Monmouth, and Middlesex
counties. The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter
Storm Warning for the remainder of our NJ counties, with the
exception of Cape May and coastal Atlantic, where a Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect. For Delmarva, the Winter Storm
Warning has been expanded slightly southward to include Kent
County MD, in addition to New Castle and Cecil counties. A
Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the remainder of our DE
and MD counties, with the exception of Sussex (DE), which may
need to be upgraded at a later point.

The High Wind Watch has been converted to a High Wind Warning
for the Atlantic coastal areas outside of the Blizzard Warning.

The Coastal Flood Watch has been upgraded to a Coastal Flood
Warning, with a Coastal Flood Advisory now in place for portions
of DE Bay. More details in the Tides/Coastal Flooding section.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Tuesday...High impact winter storm will impact the region with
heavy snowfall, high winds along the coast, and Blizzard
conditions along coastal Ocean and Monmouth counties. Travel is
not recommended. Power outages are also likely, particularly
closer to the NJ coast, due to the combination of high winds
and heavy snow.

Wednesday...Cold and blustery with snow showers possible.
Blowing snow will continue to pose a hazard.

Wednesday night and Thursday...low level northwesterly flow pattern
for our region as the low pressure system continues to lift further
into the Canadian Maritimes. As a result of that, and some limited
instability, there is a small chance for snow showers across the
Poconos. Otherwise, cold and dry conditions will prevail for the
region. Highs on Thursday will be nearly 20 degrees below normal.

Friday through Sunday...Surface high briefly shifts over the region
during the day on Friday, before a shortwave trough could cross the
region Friday night into Saturday bringing a chance for
precipitation. Still considerable differences both run-to-run and
among models on the exact track and timing of this trough, so have
stayed close to the previous forecast and a blend of model
solutions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record lows Monday morning that are vulnerable within the differing
POR`s.

ACY 11 1888

ILG 17 1896

ABE 12 1926

RDG 16 1989 Forecasting a record


March 14 daily records pcpn related and snowfall. We`ll know
more on Monday.

For what its worth some of this storms pcpn will occur prior to
05z/14 so that the liquid water equivalent values will be hard
to exceed. The daily snowfall records will be easier to exceed,
at least thats what we think as of this Sunday afternoon issuance.



ACY 1.57 - 1884 0.9-1904

PHL 1.56 - 1956 4.7-1999

ILG 1.65 - 1956 2.0-1999

ABE 1.32 - 1997 8.4-1958

TTN 1.56 - 1956

GED 2.33 - 1993

RDG 1.68 - 1913

MPO 2.04 - 1993

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday for PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday for NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021-022-027.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 3 PM EDT Tuesday for
NJZ012>014-020>027.
Blizzard Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Tuesday
for NJZ012>014-020-026.
High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ022>025-
027.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday for NJZ023>025.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EDT Tuesday for
NJZ016.
DE...Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday for DEZ001.
Coastal Flood Warning from 7 AM to 3 PM EDT Tuesday for
DEZ002>004.
High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for DEZ003-
004.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EDT Tuesday for
DEZ001.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
Tuesday for DEZ002.
MD...Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Tuesday for MDZ008-012.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
Tuesday for MDZ015-019-020.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 2 AM to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ431-450>454.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for
ANZ430-455.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Drag
Near Term...Johnson
Short Term...Franck
Long Term...Franck/Johnson
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#46 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Mar 13, 2017 10:45 pm

Just to start off, I am posting on this thread from Long Island, so I just want to make sure that things tomorrow don't get mixed up between the New England Thread and this thread, so I think that All of the information and updates from the NYC area should go on this thread If anyone has any opposition to this I'd be ok with moving it to the other thread. Ok, I am kind of on a rant now, but anyway lets get on to the important stuff. The storm track has shifted significantly west, which DOES NOT mean less snow for NYC, in fact, if the storm had gone more east, it would have probably been a swath of about 8-12 in the area, now they are forecasting 12-18. That being said, there will be a tight gradient between the highest amounts of snow. With the intense snow rates of 2-4 inches an hour, a changeover to sleet for an hour can mean the difference between 17 inches of snow and 13 inches. For a place like NYC, if there is a prolonged period of sleet, then that will cut down snow amounts by A LOT! I think that once the heavy snow starts to fall, it may cool down the atmosphere, and cause more snow. I am going to guess that All of the Bronx, Manhattan, Northern Queens, and Northern Nassau County and points north and west will stay all snow, maybe with a brief mix that won't really affect snow totals. I would think that Brooklyn, Staten Island, Southern Queens, Southern Nassau, and Suffolk County will mix in enough that it will put at least a dent in the snow totals, with the northeastern areas only seeing a deduction of a few inches, while the areas to the Southeast may only get a few inches total. Oh well, I am going to go to sleep now, so I can be up early to watch the snow! :cold: :froze:
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#47 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Mar 14, 2017 10:58 am

So far there is 6 inches of snow and sleet here in Northern Nassau County, The sleet has cut down snow totals by A LOT!
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#48 Postby Bizzles » Wed Mar 15, 2017 8:00 am

Total bust for me, sleet line stayed over my house for much of the morning/day...ended up with >1" once the sun came out.

So mad.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#49 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Mar 16, 2017 4:00 pm

Can you believe this, another storm this Sunday, GFS 12z says 6 inches for Coastal NJ and Long Island, I will admit that I am a snow lover, but it has crossed the line where I just want it to warm up into the 60's and for the flowers to bloom (Oh yeah, that already happened in late February and now all the flowers are covered in 6 inches of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and pure ice :grr: )
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#50 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Mar 19, 2017 10:39 am

Well, this winter has been semi-eventful, with spring starting tomorrow, I will soon create a spring thread for the Mid-Atlantic, here are some recaps and my personal reflections from this winter.

1. Most of our snow came in the form of surprise, and the models were not terrible overall, but they were not good past 96 hours or so

2. Winter Storm Decima- December 17, 2016
Well, this was a very nice storm considering it was early in the winter. The snow started at about 3AM with about 2 inches by 6AM, in total we got about 3.5 inches until the switchover to freezing rain at around 9AM and plain rain by 11AM

3. Winter Storm Helena- January 14, 2017
Helena was a rather unexpected storm, as it was originally a threat earlier in the week, and then models suppressed it south towards Virginia Beach, and then it eventually came back north and slapped down 7 inches of snow, with more for the east end. The snow started about 9AM and stopped around 5-6PM, it was rather uneventful due to the fact it was a very powdery snow, and it was Saturday.

4. Winter Storm Niko- February 10, 2017
Niko was an unexpected storm, but once the models locked in on it, it was evident that it was going to pack a punch. The first Blizzard Warning of the season was issued for us, and it was the first school closing of the year. The snow started around 4AM, and ended around 1PM, but the snowfall rates were very intense, and it was a very heavy snow that stuck to everything, and surprising enough, it was 64 and sunny the day before, and i even sat out of my porch in shorts, flip flops, and sunglasses with a glass of iced tea, because why not? Overall there was 10 inches of snow from that storm, making it our biggest of the season.

5. Unusual February Warmup- Late February/Very Early March
Obviously I was in Florida during this warmup and didn't get to enjoy it very much, but there were straight days of temperatures in the upper 60's, and all of the flowers were blooming, and the trees were budding, any snow on the ground melted very quick, it seemed that winter was over, but as March arrived, the idea of an early spring quickly diminishing

6. Winter Storm Stella- March 14, 2017 (Pi Day Blizzard)
Well, winter came back, and it came back with a slap in the face! Winter Storm Reggie started the whole process, with about 2.5 inches of snow, that simply covered all the flowers on the ground. In the days leading up to the storm, temperatures were absolutely AWFUL! with highs barely making it out of the mid 20s, and lows flirting with the single digits! In the week before, it appeared that Sunday was a shot of some snow, but that storm was shown to be suppressed to the south very quickly. All of a sudden, the idea of a storm on Tuesday increased fast, with snowfall maps all with 12+ inches of snow for the NYC area, people were terrified, the day before the storm, I was in NYC, and I heard people talking, and saying "Hey whatta you gonna do about this storm man?" "I don't know man, they're sayin a foot and a half of snow, I swear to god I'm sick of this f***ing winter" The night before the storm, models dramatically shifted to the idea of a costal low. The morning of the storm, I woke up to about 5 inches of snow, with snow heavily falling, at around 8AM, sleet started to pelt the house, and that continued to happen for basically the rest of the day, with periods of rain, freezing rain, sleet, and snow at varying intensities. That night it was 23 degrees, and that Wednesday Morning started one of the hardest snow cleanups our town has ever seen, everything was covered in at least an inch thick coat of solid ice, salt didn't do very much, because of it being 23 degrees and cloudy on that morning, the roads were a nightmare, and everyone parked on the street in the snow, was unable to get out, as they were basically encased in ice.

Well, thats about all I can say about this winter, as we speak, the snow melt is revealing what was once the idea of an early spring in the form of wilted, frozen flowers.
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