Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

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weathaguyry
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#21 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Jan 22, 2017 8:35 am

Well it is not winter weather that I have come to talk about, but it is an impending nor' easter, there is a hurricane force wind warning for the south shore of Long Island, there is a costal flood watch for tides 3 1/2 to 4 1/2 feet above normal, this is a very serious issue, we have to see what plays out, not to mention if you take a look at the Nam 3&4km, there is a good 5 inches of snow expected for Long Island, which seems crazy, but I question why it doesn't drop the snow amounts to match the other models :double:
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#22 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Jan 26, 2017 5:22 pm

Well, the Nor' Easter left some pretty wicked tides on the south shore of long island, but other than that, nothing much, nobody lost power, Next Monday/Tuesday there appears to be some little system that may shoot through, dumping a little bit of snow, which would be nice to look at, I'm not sure the last time it was this warm at the end of January, but it appears that this warm blast has come to an end, and we will at least get back to seasonal temperatures starting tomorrow!!! :lol:
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#23 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Jan 28, 2017 7:53 pm

It appears that the weather will play out as followed:
Monday AM: Quick shot of snow for South NJ/Delmarva, no more than a coating to an inch
Tuesday: Snow showers become more widespread across the area, leaving no more than a coating to an inch (Could potentially make some slick roads)
Thursday: Lingering snow flurries, A coating in some areas IF that
Next Sunday PM/Monday AM: Snow from a larger system starts to move in, which models predict could be a potentially long period of light snow (I would venture a guess of 2-4" for the whole system, NOTHING MAJOR)
Next Tuesday and beyond: C'Mon, now were talking ultra fantasy range :lol:
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#24 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jan 30, 2017 5:30 pm

The clipper that went through yesterday was very uneventful, but could potentially make for a better system tomorrow, as long as this low moves out of the darn way, a fairly nice warm front could set up and give up a 10AM to 8PM snow event, 1-3 inches for long island and points north seem reasonable, with a coating to an inch down to I-195 in NJ.

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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#25 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Feb 02, 2017 4:37 pm

Well, Tuesday's system wasn't too bad for a clipper, put down about an inch and a half, obviously it all melted though, I mean its winter, you can't actually expect snow to be on the ground in the beginning of February :lol: This weekend is a bust (of course :grr: ), but there could be a freezing rain event on Tuesday, but we shall see, because you can't be sure of anything until it actually happens this winter.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#26 Postby weathaguyry » Sun Feb 05, 2017 12:03 pm

Well, the GFS model now puts down about 3 inches of snow for coastal areas of NY and NJ at 96 hours, Goes from 61 Wednesday with clouds to 32 Thursday with 1-3 inches of snow. Jeez this winter has been crazy, the flipping back and forth between models is insane! Watch, the models get rid of it, then the day before they have it back, and there ends up being a blizzard or the opposite too. Good thing Im going on vacation soon, Florida on February 15, I tried to get a tour of the Hurricane Center for the 16th but there are no tours for February :grr:
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#27 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Feb 07, 2017 11:24 am

Grrr, home today sick, with some flu like thing that's been going around :grr: Anyway, it looks like Thursday is setting up to be a significant storm, with the newest GFS having 10 inches of snow for us. I think that there will be travel issues on Thursday morning, and possibly into the afternoon. a general 5-8 inches is what I am expecting, the winds are supposed to be cranking, so I think a Blizzard Watch isn't out of the question later today, if the track stays consistent. Well, i'll update later about the situation, school closings are seemingly likely on Thursday.

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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#28 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:26 pm

Well, a Winter Storm Watch was issued, with the mention of "near blizzard conditions near the coast" So that tells me maybe there will be a Bizzard Warning Issued for Long Island and Cape Cod tomorrow. Official numbers are 6-10 inches, likely will be terrible Thursday Morning commute! Stay safe everybody!
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#29 Postby psyclone » Wed Feb 08, 2017 12:23 pm

Keep us updated. Finally looks like a decent hit for somebody up there this winter.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#30 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Feb 08, 2017 2:56 pm

Well, a Blizzard Warning was issued for Cape Cod, maybe they will issue one on Long Island. 12z models are a little more bullish, with about a foot for LI and NYC. Tomorrow is going to be a terrible day. On the other hand I am sitting on my patio right now with temperature readings in the mid 60's I have on shorts, a t-shirt, and flip flops, the sun feels beautiful! (I know, people down south would make fun of me, based on their winter they'd be bundled up for a high of 64 at this point :P )
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#31 Postby weathaguyry » Thu Feb 09, 2017 3:19 pm

Well, there was 10 inches of snow here on Western Long Island, there was a heavy band of snow that was moving through, which is still sort of over us, but there is no significant additional accumulation expected for us throughout today, That was a pretty good storm, it cancelled schools, and we got a blizzard warning, the first of the year :D
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#32 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:23 pm

Well, recap of last weeks storm, School closed on Thursday, delay on Friday (Obviously we are the town in our county with the most hills, yet we still are 1 of 7 schools in the county open that day :grr: ) I spent the weekend in Vermont, which got absolutely pummeled with snow, but the ski conditions were great. I missed most of the storm on Sunday, heard it was freezing rain up until 1PM on Long Island, Upstate Interstate 87 was snow covered, and it took us 7 hours to get home (a normally 4 hour drive) I am going to Florida on Wednesday Night, to escape the weather! (Not trying to make anyone jealous)
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#33 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Mar 03, 2017 11:45 pm

Well, They say that March comes in like a lion and they are not kidding!!!! Highs not making it out of the 20's tomorrow with a low in the low-mid teens! You could maybe expect this as a cold day in mid January, but this is pretty crazy for March (Not to mention it may go back up to 60 next Tuesday!) Overall, I tend to think that the whole "March Goes out Like a Lamb" thing is crap, my whole life I have always sat at the end of march, in a coat while the temperature is in the 40's, thinking "Where's the Lamb!?!?" Oh well, I guess that only applies for points south of Washington D.C. :D
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#34 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Mar 06, 2017 5:35 pm

Well, unexpectedly, winter has decided to come back and make a hurrah, although I think almost everyone around here just wants spring to come, we have the shot of some snow on Friday and Possibly Sunday, Originally, the GFS was showing near a foot of snow here, but that has backed off, and now it shows near a foot near Washington D.C, the model keeps shifting south, but I know it has to stop soon, whats next? A foot for Jacksonville, FL?
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#35 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Mar 09, 2017 4:54 am

weathaguyry wrote:Well, unexpectedly, winter has decided to come back and make a hurrah, although I think almost everyone around here just wants spring to come, we have the shot of some snow on Friday and Possibly Sunday, Originally, the GFS was showing near a foot of snow here, but that has backed off, and now it shows near a foot near Washington D.C, the model keeps shifting south, but I know it has to stop soon, whats next? A foot for Jacksonville, FL?


LOL.. we won't see none of that white stuff here, but could see some within 5 hour drive from here on Sunday lol.. But, we will see a cool down here by early next week. However, they could see snow as far south as Charlotte, NC by this Sunday as a late season winter storm organizes just off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#36 Postby Bizzles » Thu Mar 09, 2017 2:06 pm

Potential One Last Winter Blast

GFS and CMC have a Nor'Easter packing quite a punch to my area (NJ) on Tuesday. Keep an eye out for this one.
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#37 Postby Bizzles » Sat Mar 11, 2017 5:27 am

Did a trend .gif with the last 12 GFS runs, and they all have from 9 to 16" falling over the I-95 Corridor

This is going to be fun! To think I almost but the snow blower away... :froze:
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#38 Postby Bizzles » Sat Mar 11, 2017 7:33 am

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
404 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

NJZ001-007>010-015-017>019-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106-120915-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Gloucester-Camden-
Northwestern Burlington-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
Delaware-Philadelphia-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
404 AM EST Sat Mar 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey, southern New Jersey, east central
Pennsylvania, northeast Pennsylvania and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Accumulating snow is possible Monday night into Tuesday night. There
is still considerable uncertainty with details, including exact
snow amounts, but there could be major impacts to travel especially
during the day Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$
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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#39 Postby cycloneye » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:00 am

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Re: Mid-Atlantic Fall/Winter 2016-2017

#40 Postby weathaguyry » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:13 pm

Just when I thought winter was over, this storm decides to come and this thread becomes one of the busiest threads on the site! I will be monitoring the storm from Long Island, I would venture a guess of 12-16 inches for right now around the NYC area, I think the question now is when will blizzard watches go up?
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