Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6019
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17

#1 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Nov 23, 2016 1:37 pm

Well, the time has come now to get this thread back going again. Now that the first freeze of the season has occured earlier this week here at my locale, and also across many areas of the Deep South, it is time to start looking at the models to see if Mother Nature will bring cold weather down our way across the Deep South and down into the Florida peninsula.


Looking at the long range GFS out 10 days, the next significant cold front is progged to come down into the Plains and Central U.S. and dive toward the Gulf Coast region as a potential winter storm is forecast to develop by Dec. 1 and move northeastward. If this verifies, this may bring a stout ridge to build across the Southeast U.S. and bring warm, wet pattern back to many areas of the South. This could also finally bring about a welcomed pattern change to bring south/southwesterly flow to finally tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to bring much desperately needed rainfall to parched areas of the Deep South by the start of December. This pattern could also bring a return to potential severe weather in parts of the South as well

More later...
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
MGC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5372
Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#2 Postby MGC » Sat Nov 26, 2016 1:07 pm

Yep, dreaded winter weather is back. Had my first frost at the house on Monday the 21st. Here is to another warm winter.....MGC
0 likes   

User avatar
Agua
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1110
Joined: Thu Jul 31, 2003 4:54 pm
Location: Biloxi, Mississippi

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#3 Postby Agua » Tue Nov 29, 2016 3:41 pm

Muggy warm the last couple of days. Other than hurricanes, the only thing about living down here I don't like: winter never comes.
0 likes   

User avatar
StormingB81
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5573
Age: 37
Joined: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:45 am
Location: Rockledge, Florida

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#4 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:19 pm

Well a nice start to November is giving way to possible record highs tomorrow in Central Florida...
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6019
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#5 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Nov 29, 2016 4:47 pm

Yeah, looking long range, it looks as if toward a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation in the coming weeks. This would have a tendency to drive a potential arctic airmass south down the Lee of the Rockies more into the Central CONUS and down into the Plains . Also, it looks as if the dreaded Southeast Ridge may rear its pesky existence on the scene beginning next week as we go into December as well. So, the extreme drought, which has gripped the Southeast U.S. since Hurricane Matthew may continue well into December. Plus, unseasonable warmth definitely may be in the cards as well down the road.

We could see a potential ridge set up for our region next week, it sure looks like the NAO will be on the positive side . So, the outlook for now looking 10-14 days out is not good for cold weather enthusiasts in these parts and also does not look good for getting rain across the Florida peninsula and potentially across much of Dixie.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 20417
Age: 40
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#6 Postby gatorcane » Fri Dec 02, 2016 9:48 pm

Looks like some serious cold could be invading the Deep South late this coming week. GFS and ECMWF models bring the 850mb 0C line all the way down to the Gulf coast and even down into the Gulf and as far as West-Central Florida on the 00Z ECMWF from 12/2
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6019
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#7 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Dec 03, 2016 10:33 am

:uarrow: Yes indeed. I also peaked ahead going out to the middle of this month. There are hints in long range guidance that even a colder arctic airmass than the one coming for next weekend (Dec 9-11) may drop south to impact the Deep South/SE CONUS region Dec 13-16.

Also, long range models are possibly hinting at a potential U.S. East Coast winter storm from Dec 13-16 as a deep U.S.East Coast upper trough/ upper ridge West Coast to Intermountain West set up may evolve by mid month.

So, things possibly look to get interesting as time progresses with Old Man Winter making his presence felt. Stay tuned......
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2654
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#8 Postby LarryWx » Sat Dec 03, 2016 11:35 am

Note that the Euro's MJO forecast has it mainly within the circle in early to mid Dec. Per my research of a couple years ago, the highest correlation to SE US winter cold has been when it was either within or just outside the circle (especially the left side), not when it is well outside the circle on the left side. For evidence, just look back at the MJO charts for winters one by one back to 1975. That's how I found this out. Here is the Euro forecast:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... m_full.gif

That looks delicious for cold prospects.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2654
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#9 Postby LarryWx » Sat Dec 03, 2016 12:47 pm

As opposed to a major SN, the biggest threat to ATL/much of N GA this winter is a major ZR &/or IP as we're pretty much in a neutral negative ENSO (likely to verify just too warm for an official very weak Nina, which requires 5 trimonthlies in a row of -0.5 C or colder anoms). Neutral negative has by far had the most major ZR's/IP's in ATL, ~50% of them! 50% is very high when you consider that the frequency of other ENSO winters having a major ZR or IP there was only about 1 in 6. So, having a neutral negative ups the chances for a major ZR/IP there by ~three times over the chance for all other ENSO combined! The largest concentration of major ZR's there has occurred between late Dec. and early Feb. although the range has been from mid-Dec.to late March.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2654
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#10 Postby LarryWx » Sat Dec 03, 2016 3:04 pm

For those hoping for a cold SE US Jan., it is better that Dec. be cold than warm because there is a decent correlation between Dec temps and Jan temps.

Looking at ATL since 1950 as a proxy for the SE as a whole:

When Dec was 42 or colder (3.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 10 out of 14 times.
When Dec was 40 or colder (5.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 6 out of 7 times.

When Dec was 49 or warmer (3.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 2 out of 15 times.
When Dec was 51 or warmer (5.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 1 out of 5 times.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6019
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#11 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Dec 10, 2016 6:45 am

It appears that the North America Oscillation will be in a positive phase over the next 10 days or so leading into Christmas.

This will lead to the re-establishment of the Southeast U.S. ridge during this period. The next arctic air plunge will impact a large portion of the CONUS starting the middle of next week. But the ridge, if it indeed develops,
will shield a good portion of the Southeast U.S., and especially the Florida peninsula, from the cold possibly going into Christmas. There may be the potential of seeing record warmth again in Florida and the immediate Southeast region leading into Christmas, similar to last year. We will have to see how long the +NAO will stick around this time.

Models long range do show the potential of a significant snowpack building across the northern and central CONUS as we get near Christmas. That may be a very important component as we get farther into the winter season as these arctic airmasses won't modify as they come down into the CONUS.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

A.V.

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#12 Postby A.V. » Fri Dec 16, 2016 1:39 am

You people should be wishing for no winter to happen. The SE US ridge brings gorgeous weather to the whole Southern US, which should be warm, and never have arctic cold come down, and ruin the landscape.
1 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 15731
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#13 Postby Ntxw » Fri Dec 16, 2016 8:02 am

northjaxpro wrote:It appears that the North America Oscillation will be in a positive phase over the next 10 days or so leading into Christmas.

This will lead to the re-establishment of the Southeast U.S. ridge during this period. The next arctic air plunge will impact a large portion of the CONUS starting the middle of next week. But the ridge, if it indeed develops,
will shield a good portion of the Southeast U.S., and especially the Florida peninsula, from the cold possibly going into Christmas. There may be the potential of seeing record warmth again in Florida and the immediate Southeast region leading into Christmas, similar to last year. We will have to see how long the +NAO will stick around this time.

Models long range do show the potential of a significant snowpack building across the northern and central CONUS as we get near Christmas. That may be a very important component as we get farther into the winter season as these arctic airmasses won't modify as they come down into the CONUS.


As usual good post northjaxpro. I think January may feature a little more blocking and possibly some -NAO for the southeastern CONUS and Florida. It is also best climo period for the gulf coast region. Euro weeklies do show weakening of the southeast ridge after the first week, then some Greenland ridging. But that is very far out in model world, worth food for thought though.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3501
Age: 35
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#14 Postby Hammy » Sat Dec 17, 2016 11:48 pm

What are the chances of getting some cold and snow down into Athens/Winder area eventually this winter?
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

Stormnut
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 76
Joined: Tue Dec 10, 2013 2:39 pm
Location: Baton Rouge, La

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#15 Postby Stormnut » Mon Dec 19, 2016 7:48 am

We ended up getting a few flakes in spots here in southeast Louisiana. Not really sure how given the column but several different locales reported light snow.


https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 1740100060
1 likes   

Jag95
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 225
Joined: Sat Aug 15, 2009 8:43 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#16 Postby Jag95 » Mon Dec 19, 2016 12:56 pm

It was 32 degrees and light rain all the way to work this morning. I never did see any sleet or ice much less snow.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6019
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#17 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Dec 25, 2016 12:13 pm

Well, another warmer than average Christmas Day not only across the Deep South, but across a good majority of the Eastern CONUS. Yes, it is a La Nina for sure.

There are no major arctic airmasses heading toward the Deep South for at least the next 10 days looking at long range model guidance. Arctic air will be out across the Intermountain West and the Pacific NW beginning around New Year's Day and into the first few days of 2017.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2018 Meteorological Summer Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2654
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Threadand

#18 Postby LarryWx » Sun Dec 25, 2016 5:20 pm

LarryWx wrote:For those hoping for a cold SE US Jan., it is better that Dec. be cold than warm because there is a decent correlation between Dec temps and Jan temps.

Looking at ATL since 1950 as a proxy for the SE as a whole:

When Dec was 42 or colder (3.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 10 out of 14 times.
When Dec was 40 or colder (5.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 6 out of 7 times.

When Dec was 49 or warmer (3.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 2 out of 15 times.
When Dec was 51 or warmer (5.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 1 out of 5 times.


Well, per progs as well as actuals for 12/1-25, it looks like Atlanta will end up with near 48-49 for December. Based on winters since 1950, that means that the odds of a 42 or colder Atlanta January are low for 2017. Normal there is 43. However, low chance doesn't mean no chance and I still am hoping for a 2013-4 type of sudden change. That winter also had a mild SE Dec due to a dominating SE ridge, a cold Midwest, a strong +AO, and a neutral negative ENSO. The SE suddenly transitioned to quite a cold January including significant wintry precip many areas including Snowjam 2014. The odds are against this though and, therefore, I'm not betting on it. But there is enough chance to hope. Regardless, I'm still quite wary about the chance for a major ZR and/or IP in Atlanta and nearby areas due to the neutral negative ENSO, which gives that area a 50% chance or three times the chance for other ENSO.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Dec 25, 2016 8:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2654
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#19 Postby LarryWx » Sun Dec 25, 2016 7:24 pm

Hammy wrote:What are the chances of getting some cold and snow down into Athens/Winder area eventually this winter?


You have about a 50% chance for a major ZR or sleetstorm.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

hurricanehunter69
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 254
Joined: Sun May 16, 2010 5:21 pm
Location: New Orleans

Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#20 Postby hurricanehunter69 » Mon Dec 26, 2016 9:32 am

The prospects of a deep south winter event has my attention! 5 runs in a row now starting at about day 12.....http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false
1 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests