Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17

Winter Weather Discussion

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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#21 Postby One Eye » Mon Dec 26, 2016 11:32 am

I am definitely crossing my fingers! Hoping the gulf low and arctic cold will come together!
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#22 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:34 pm

Well, I am one who generally does not look past 10 days long range. However, since this is a thread I continued about potential winter weather in the Southeast U.S. or Deep South region, well why not explore into this possibility.

Long range GFS within the 10-14 day range from now are hinting to a possible arctic plunge east of the Rockies to drop south across the Central and Eastern CONUS. If you believe the GFS, it also is hinting of the potential of the southern branch of the jet stream possibly becoming active during this period as well. Now, for the most part, this type of scenario has seemed unlikely this winter given that we have seen a La Nina in progress. However, I guess we can get curveballs thrown at us at times from Mother Nature.

So, it is still way out in time and I definitely would not get hyped about all this. But, for all you all who want a bit of winter fun, watch the upper air pattern in future model runs. Maybe, just maybe, the ingredients may try to come together after the start of 2017.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#23 Postby LarryWx » Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:47 pm

:uarrow:
Jax,
One thing to keep in mind is that we're not now quite in an actual La Niña. It is neutral negative, which isn't as unfavorable as a full fledged Nina as I assume you realize. Also, the MJO is projected to move into the favorable left side of the circle for colder wx. Furthermore, the AO is dropping substantially from recent levels. Dec of 2013 is quite analogous to Dec of 2016 in terms of ENSO, AO, SE ridge, and cold Midwest. Though it is but one analog, Jan of 2014 was quite a cold month and included Snowjam 2014.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#24 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Dec 26, 2016 2:50 pm

Well, considering how we have been so warm and dry the past few months across the Florida peninsula and the SE CONUS it sure seems that we have been in a La Nina. But if we are in neutral negative phase, we have to have been as close you can be to a full Nina I can assure you Larry.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#25 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Dec 28, 2016 3:14 pm

Models still very interesting end of next week with a winter storm in the deep south and even snow down to the coast
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#26 Postby Jag95 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 4:09 pm

That last GFS run had a setup next week for the central gulf coast that looked a lot like that situation we had 3 or 4 years ago when we had that big sleet storm.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#27 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Jan 02, 2017 8:59 am

:uarrow: The 06Z GFS run from earlier this morning is now showing an interesting potential winter storm scenario beginning this Saturday for many areas of the Deep South.

I touched on this potential scenario last week in this thread about the potential of the ingredients potentially coming together of winter weather across the Southeast U.S. and it looks like we may get that this upcoming weekend.

GFS is now showing a Low Pressure system will move northeast out from the NE GOM and move across South AL through Central GA, then through the Carolinas before emerging off the Mid-Atlantic coast by next Sunday evening (1/8)

GFS is depicting a cold, 1041 mb Arctic High to drop south to be centered.over the southern Plains by late Saturday. Cold air looks to be entrenched across much of.the Deep South next weekend looking at forecast thickness values, especially Saturday through Sunday of this upcoming weekend.

The potential of a decent wintry precipitation event across Northern and Central AL, Northern and Central GA and northeast across into the Carolinas look like a distinct possibilty. Also, the dynamics with an active southern jet and clash of airmasses there also could be the threat of severe thunderstorms in the warm sector which will develop just in front of the storm system along the Gulf Coast and over South GA and the Florida peninsula during the upcoming weekend.

Definitely a potential of a significant system which may impact the Deep South later this weekend if you follow the GFS thiis time of year closely like I tend to do.

More later........
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#28 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 03, 2017 7:03 am

GFS and EURO in a bit better agreement compared to yesterday with regards to our Deep South winter storm for tbis weekend. Definitely likely that a GOM Low Pressure system will organize and move east-northeast through the region and latest 6Z model guidance definitely indicate partial thicknesses in the Deep South support wintry precipitation.There are a few differences.

EURO is stronger and wetter with the storm system, while the GFS is slower with the system's progression through the region and farther south with the Low Pressure system emerging off the Florida Atlantic coast.

I will also point out that if GFS more southerly Low track ends up verifying moreso than the EURO, the set-up really increases for a potential significant snow event across North and even into portions of Central Georgia eastward through the Carolinas.

People in those areas, especially Atlanta, Charlotte and Raleigh metro areas, may have quite a winter weather event in store for them this weekend.

Stay tuned...
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#29 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Jan 03, 2017 12:47 pm

Interesting run of the GFS this morning, which has the mixed precip reaching almost to the Mississippi coast by early Saturday morning and spits out 3-4 inches of snow for central Alabama. The Euro is farther north with the frozen precipitation, and the Canadian (naturally) goes bonkers with the whole shebang, predicting 7-8 inches of snow for Montgomery and Birmingham.

*but*

They are model runs of an event 3-4 days out and we all know the deal with that sort of thing. However, all three global models continue to agree on an event taking place this weekend. It's fairly difficult to get all of the right elements to come together for snow in the deep, deep South, so for me the question remains about the amount of cold air in place over the weekend and/or the timing of its arrival versus the amount of precipitation in place. I can buy a solution suggesting snow for northern Louisiana, central Mississippi and Alabama, Georgia, etcetera. Smart money says cold rain for the coastal counties and perhaps a mix for the counties just north of the coast. So far.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#30 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Jan 03, 2017 1:10 pm

Gulf low trending further south bring snow line all the way to the coast..liking the trend
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#31 Postby MGC » Tue Jan 03, 2017 2:28 pm

Hope this trend of winter precipitation continues for the deep south. One or two degrees could mean all the difference between rain or snow down here. I will believe it when I see it though. Gulf low needs to track well south of the coast and deepen to pull that cold air down.....MGC
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#32 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:02 pm

:uarrow: Yeah the trend has been for a more southerly track for the Gulf Low. I will be curious to see the 18Z runs shortly, especially the EURO to see if it is caving more to the GFS solution of a southerly track.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#33 Postby Jag95 » Tue Jan 03, 2017 3:14 pm

72 hours is about when I start listening and we're almost there. The 12Z GFS does still show a pesky warm nose along the immediate coast.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#34 Postby MGC » Tue Jan 03, 2017 8:02 pm

18Z GFS has frozen precipitation all the way down to the MS coast and SELA at hour 90 (12Z Saturday). Lets hope this trend continues. If it is going to get cold might as well snow.....MGC
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#35 Postby Hammy » Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:17 am

I've been following the models the last few days and for me, it's almost a bit too far south, almost seeming like if it sinks any further south the entirety of the precip will miss the northern part of Georgia--and this is very likely the only shot at snow we'll have this year.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#36 Postby Agua » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:28 pm

MGC wrote:18Z GFS has frozen precipitation all the way down to the MS coast and SELA at hour 90 (12Z Saturday). Lets hope this trend continues. If it is going to get cold might as well snow.....MGC

It's not going to snow on the Mississippi Gulf Coast. It's happened one time in the last 20 years. We've had sleet storms a couple of times, but the last actual snow I've seen was around 1997 or 98 when there were flurries for about 45 minutes.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#37 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:53 pm

Looking at the 12Z GFS from this morning, it appears that most of South AL and even parts of the extreme Western FL Panhandle area is shown with a wintry mix of precipitation on Saturday morning.

This is looking more and more like an Interstate 85 event. All areas along and north of I-85 in AL, GA, SC and NC potentially receiving significant snow accumulations.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#38 Postby bella_may » Wed Jan 04, 2017 11:59 pm

New GFS run has light snowfall accumulations as far south as lucedale,ms and northern mobile with two inches just a few miles north. Was worried it was trending in the wrong direction this morning, but this is the best run yet.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#39 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jan 05, 2017 12:14 am

Models tonight seem to be more robust with the surface wave in the Gulf. This seems to be the result of it moving slower and having more time to strengthen/possibly phase a little more with the energy across the Mid-South that will cause snow across Tennessee, Arkansas, Northern MS/AL.

Looking at the GFS, it is wetter and colder this run across South MS and AL. I'm a little more concerned about a freezing rain event in South MS/AL. The 0z Canadian also lends credit to this idea with heavier precip and temps hovering at or just below 32 degrees as far south as Wiggins, MS while heaviest precipitation is around. If you glance at Snowfall total output from the CMC it doesn't show any accumulation, but surface temps argue for a little higher impact freezing rain event across Southern MS/AL than was thought earlier today. I could be wrong (wouldn't be the first time), but believe a freezing rain event looks more likely this evening with possible accumulations. Hopefully, we will see a changeover to snow before it ends! Models still do hint at that possibility for a brief time. We shall see.
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Re: Deep South Winter Weather Discussion 2016-17 Thread

#40 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jan 05, 2017 1:23 am

0z Euro follows the trend of other models with a colder/wetter scenario across the Deep South. Still looks like an increased freezing rain/sleet threat across Central/Southeast MS, Central/South Alabama and on into Georgia. North Georgia and the Carolinas look mighty pretty with all the snow totals.

Btw, just looking at Euro output for my location here in Southeast Mississippi, the 0z Euro was 3 degrees colder than the 12z at the same time frame. That puts us right at 32-33 degrees with the heaviest (0.8-1.0 inch) qpf moving through. Interesting for sure.
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