Texas Winter 2017-2018

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Texas Snowman
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#21 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:39 am

@BigJoeBastardi - Interesting analog look at next winter, assuming NO SUPER NINO

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#22 Postby Ptarmigan » Sat Apr 15, 2017 8:11 pm

An El Nino winter with a previous winter being La Nina tends to be colder than average. Some of the coldest winters occurred in La Nina to El Nino years.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#23 Postby wxman57 » Mon Apr 17, 2017 6:25 am

Ptarmigan wrote:An El Nino winter with a previous winter being La Nina tends to be colder than average. Some of the coldest winters occurred in La Nina to El Nino years.


This coming winter is going to be quite cold and icy across Texas.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#24 Postby Tireman4 » Mon Apr 17, 2017 11:39 am

wxman57 wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:An El Nino winter with a previous winter being La Nina tends to be colder than average. Some of the coldest winters occurred in La Nina to El Nino years.


This coming winter is going to be quite cold and icy across Texas.


Humm. You know, I want to believe you. I really do. I am not sure if you are just taunting us or not.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#25 Postby Brent » Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:17 am

wxman57 wrote:
Ptarmigan wrote:An El Nino winter with a previous winter being La Nina tends to be colder than average. Some of the coldest winters occurred in La Nina to El Nino years.


This coming winter is going to be quite cold and icy across Texas.


I'm gonna remember this when the time comes. :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#26 Postby bubba hotep » Fri May 05, 2017 11:47 am

Looks like the QBO is finally turning the corner. Winter '09/10 saw a QBO flip during the summer of '09, just saying.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#27 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Jul 07, 2017 10:10 am

bubba hotep wrote:Looks like the QBO is finally turning the corner. Winter '09/10 saw a QBO flip during the summer of '09, just saying.


I sure hope so, Winter's of 15/16 & 16/17 were well above average across the southern half of the U.S. :cry:

For NTX 09/10 was one of our coldest Winters and has been the coldest Winter since.
http://www.weather.gov/fwd/dmotemp
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#28 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 07, 2017 2:57 pm

Warm neutral, or weak Nino is likely for winter 2017-2018. There is an outside possibly of a moderate Nino. That is probably where to start. +ENSO winters (aside from the super events) favor second half of winters being more active for winter weather. Really cold winters tends to start early and run right through (2013/2014)
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#29 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Jul 07, 2017 3:20 pm

I'm just hoping for a wet fall and winter here in south and central Texas. If this dry pattern continues through the upcoming winter, we will be in trouble...

Any cold temperatures and frozen precipitation will just be plus. We need rain!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#30 Postby JDawg512 » Fri Jul 07, 2017 4:01 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:I'm just hoping for a wet fall and winter here in south and central Texas. If this dry pattern continues through the upcoming winter, we will be in trouble...

Any cold temperatures and frozen precipitation will just be plus. We need rain!


Cheers! I agree, plus I'd rather have the ground fairly moist if we do get freezing weather as opposed to dry which would cause damage to flora.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#31 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Jul 07, 2017 8:18 pm

Hmmmm....

@philklotzbach -- 0 typhoons so far in 2017 - 6th time on record (since 1950) that NW Pacific has had 0 typhoons thru 7/7. Other yrs: 1977, 83, 95, 98 & 2010
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#32 Postby Brent » Sat Jul 08, 2017 12:24 am

I'm counting the days I dunno about yall lol. I'm starting to see light at the end of the summer tunnel, its now been 6 months since DFW had a freeze too lol. December is less than 5 months away. :D

I just want a winter this year, I feel cheated by the last 2 years. Although I do have preliminary plans to go up north this winter, it'd be nicer to see it here...

Oh and a cooler fall... lol, been so warm in Oct/Nov the last 2 years and of course it was a sign of the winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#33 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 08, 2017 8:21 am

Brent wrote:I'm counting the days I dunno about yall lol. I'm starting to see light at the end of the summer tunnel, its now been 6 months since DFW had a freeze too lol. December is less than 5 months away. :D

I just want a winter this year, I feel cheated by the last 2 years. Although I do have preliminary plans to go up north this winter, it'd be nicer to see it here...

Oh and a cooler fall... lol, been so warm in Oct/Nov the last 2 years and of course it was a sign of the winter.


I'd say last year was more bearable even though technically it is the warmest winter. December and first half of January was ok, there was some real cold and a chance at snow. Then it got really hot, and Christmas kind of put a damper. 2015-2016 was a disaster...It never even really got cold and maybe a flurry.

I'm hoping for a good, long winter this year. Solar minimum for the win!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#34 Postby Portastorm » Sat Jul 08, 2017 9:24 am

Not me ... I want another blowtorch winter. I don't want to see the temperature dip below 50 degrees in Austin. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#35 Postby Texas Snowman » Sat Jul 22, 2017 2:22 pm

From Steve McCauley's Facebook page: :D

"Well, I think I have officially gone overboard now, but I care not; palm trees make me happy. I will eat next month.

And now that we have the hottest days ahead of us, I am in hopes that they can withstand the heat and prepare themselves for the coming cold this winter. It is with a little trepidation that I report that the same data analysis done last May that predicted a wet first half to our summer is also predicting early and perhaps SEVERE cold snaps in December.

I look forward to the challenge!"
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#36 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Jul 31, 2017 9:43 am

Texas Snowman wrote:Hmmmm....

@philklotzbach -- 0 typhoons so far in 2017 - 6th time on record (since 1950) that NW Pacific has had 0 typhoons thru 7/7. Other yrs: 1977, 83, 95, 98 & 2010


Yep and all those years were followed by cold and snowy Winters for North Texas.... :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#37 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 31, 2017 10:59 am

The chances of an El Nino this winter just about got crushed the past few weeks. CFSv2 and others are fully neutral, possibly skewed slightly cold neutral
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#38 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jul 31, 2017 8:50 pm

Came across this old story today. Can you imagine Galveston Bay freezing over?

-----

Tompkins: Documenting Texas coast's big chills

SHANNON TOMPKINS
Houston Chronicle

February 10, 2011

Fish-killing freezes aren’t particularly unusual events along the Texas coast; dozens of cold-related kills have been documented over the state’s history.

But, as appears the case with this past week’s cold spell, most of the freeze-related fish kills have been relatively minor — glancing blows instead of knockout punches.
A handful of freezes, though, have resulted in catastrophic loss of marine life, killing millions of inshore fish and other marine organisms and leaving behind a devastated fishery that takes years to recover.
A review of historical records over the past 150 or so years indicates a ruinous freeze — one resulting in mass kills of marine life — occurs, on average, about every 15 years.
In that regard, Texas has been riding a lucky streak; the most recent major, coast wide, freeze-triggered fish kill occurred a little more than 21 years ago.
Here’s a brief history of some of the historically important and major freeze-related fish kills on the Texas coast:

1528 — The first European to note freeze-related coastal fish kills was the first European to produce a written record from what is now Texas.
Alvar Nunez Cabeza de Vaca was shipwrecked in November, 1528 on what is today known as Galveston Island, and spent the following eight years living with native people along the Texas coast and attempting to reach Spanish settlements in Mexico.
In La Relacion — The Account of Alvar Nunez Cabeza de Vaca, the book de Vaca wrote of his experiences, he noted the native people on the coast took advantage of “the season when the fish come to die.”
Most translators and interpreters of the work believe the statement refers to the fish-stunning effects of freezes on the coast, which allowed native peoples to easily collect fish for food.
• 1820 — Jane Long, often called “The Mother of Texas” as her daughter Mary was (wrongly, it turns out) claimed to be the first child of European heritage born in what is now Texas, reported the winter of 1820-21 was brutally cold. Long, living at the time on Bolivar Peninsula, reported temperatures dropped so low at one point that Galveston Bay froze over.
Long also noted that her small group survived the winter by breaking ice and collecting the freeze-killed fish beneath it.
•1845-46 — During the Mexican War, 5,000 U.S. Army troops under command of Gen. Zachary Taylor spent the winter of 1845-46 bivouacked on the shore of Corpus Christi Bay in advance of their invasion of Mexico. A major freeze hit the coast that winter, and the troops reportedly feed on freeze-killed fish.
• 1886 — At dusk Jan. 9, air temperature in Corpus Christi was 75 degrees. By dawn, Jan. 10, it had fallen to 16 degrees. The snow storm accompanying the freeze was described in the Galveston Daily News as “the greatest the city, state or even the lower South has ever witnessed.”
According to a history of freeze-caused fish kills written in 1996 by the late Larry McEachron, long-time science director of coastal fisheries for Texas Parks and Wildlife Department: “Based on reliable weather information, this could have been the worst fish kill in the past 150 years.”
• 1899 — The five-day freeze that struck the coast beginning Feb. 12 drove temperatures to their lowest recorded levels along the Texas coast — 9 degrees in Galveston, 10 in Brownsville and Corpus Christi. People rode horses across Nueces Bay. Others ice skated on Galveston Bay. Ships were frozen in ice in the harbors of Galveston and Corpus Christi.
Fish froze by the millions.
• 1917 — A freeze that hit the Texas coast on Feb. 3 was described by McEachron as “believed to be one of the most destructive of the Twentieth Century to marine life in Texas.”
• 1924 — Temperatures along the length of the coast dropped below freezing on Dec. 19 and remained there for more than two days on the upper coast and 74 hours in Corpus Christi — the longest continuous sub-freezing air temperature recorded on the coast up to that time.
The fish kill, while not quantified, was catastrophic.
•1940 — On Jan. 18, temperature in Rockport dropped from 64 into the 20s in four hours, and gale-force wind blew for four days. Temperatures dropped below freezing each day for 10 consecutive days, and more bays froze several hundred yards from shore.
This was the first freeze-caused fish kill fairly well documented by biologists. Biologists estimated more than one-million pounds of fish were collected in the Rockport/Corpus Christi area.
Coast-wide commercial finfish harvest dropped by half for the following two years.
• 1951 — The third freeze of winter 1950-51 began Jan. 28 and was the worst. It was the most prolonged freeze on record for the Texas coast. All bays saw major fish kills, with one state fisheries biologist estimated as much as 90 million pounds of fish died.
The Laguna Madre was hardest hit, losing an estimated 46 million fish. State fisheries staff set a series of gill nets in the upper Laguna Madre that October and November. Those nets yielded a total of four fish.
The 1951 fish kill crippled recreational and commercial fishing until the middle of the decade.
• 1983 — The Christmas Freeze, which set air temperature records across Texas, plunged coastal surface water temperatures from 60-64 degrees ahead of the front to 35 degrees in less than 8 hours.
Temperature remained below freezing in Port Arthur for 77 consecutive hours.
Ice rimmed every Texas bay. On Trinity Bay, a 4-inch-thick sheet of ice extended almost 500 yards from shore.
Texas Parks and Wildlife Department conducted intense, systematic and detailed monitoring of the freeze’s impacts. The estimated death toll: 14 million fish.
• 1989 — Two freezes — Feb. 3-6 and Dec. 22-24 — killed an estimated 17 million finfish.
The February freeze hit the upper and lower Laguna Madre hardest, but caused localized fish kills along the length of the Texas coast. TPWD estimated 11.3 million finfish killed.
The December freeze set air temperature records across the states. Brownsville saw 16 degrees, and temperatures fell to single digits along the upper coast. Houston set a record with 7 degrees.
Texas bays lost an estimated 6 million fish to the December 1989 freeze. The toll would have been much higher, but the February freeze had already stripped the bays of a large portion of their fish populations.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#39 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:15 am

Through wishful thinking and searching around online for hints to winter, I keep coming across early predictions of ENSO neutral conditions. Typically what does this do for our winter down here? A couple sources said warm and dry, while others have said cool and dry.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#40 Postby wxman57 » Tue Aug 01, 2017 8:18 am

Portastorm wrote:Not me ... I want another blowtorch winter. I don't want to see the temperature dip below 50 degrees in Austin. :wink:


I'm still thinking very cold and very icy across Texas. That last (lack of) winter was brutal. Bring on the cold!
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