Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Yukon Cornelius]

Hmmm... The NAMs have shifted north and now have the majority of the weekend rain up in Oklahoma.

But it also gives the areas in TX with the worst drought conditions much needed rain.

[weatherdude1108]

We need the rain. It's been damp, but not of the earth-penetrating variety. This would help.


Heads up for next week: A potent system will sweep acroiss Texas next Tuesday and Wednesday bringing the risk for strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. Some small hail and gusty winds could occur with some of the thunderstrorms given current projections. Stay tuned through the weekend on this developing system.

[rwfromkansas]

Yeah the rain this weekend looks rather weak now unfortunately, though it never was a wash-out.

[Ntxw]

The rain is going to be spread out over several system in various days. This coming rain is a shortwave disturbance coming out, another piece days later and another. 0.5-1" in the winter time is usually about as good as it gets. WPC highlights 7 day totals anywhere from 1.5-4+ inches along and east of I-35 in Texas and Oklahoma. Heaviest in far northeast Texas when all done.



So while Oklahoma and NW Texas may benefit from this weekend, the stronger disturbances will be further south and east with time as the subtropical jet kicks in. This first round is mostly light to moderate showers. The heavier rain comes early week as it trains over the same region along the mentioned above axis multiple days, possibly measurable each day of the coming week in some locations.

[weatherdude1108]

The EWX had a graphic on it. They said the most severe areas affected by drought will miss out on most of the rainfall, unfortunately.

Texas has been seeing increasing drought areas over the last few months, with the hardest hit areas being in the Panhandle. We are expecting an upper level system to bring some welcome rain to the state, but right now, it looks like the bulk of that rainfall will be mostly across east Texas. Some locations along the I-35 corridor may see some minor relief, but the more severe areas should miss out on most of the rainfall unfortunately.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Not going to make the High today. Forecasted for 51 and its been right at 40-43 all day.

[bubba hotep]

18z models seem like a win-win as they have expanded the precipitation to the south but didn't really pull back from areas farther north that really need the precipitation. The Euro EPS continues to trend wetter with the 12z today pushing a two week mean out towards 6" at DFW. That is crazy high for a two week mean on the EPS.

[Quixotic]

The overall trend over the winter has been for precip to center east and south of DFW. These next few weeks shift the trend west, if only incrementally. It’s a step in the right direction. Severe season will be up and running in the panhandle before you know it.

[bubba hotep]

The overall trend over the winter has been for precip to center east and south of DFW. These next few weeks shift the trend west, if only incrementally. It’s a step in the right direction. Severe season will be up and running in the panhandle before you know it.

We will probably have some dryline action next week. I hope we can avoid the death cap this year. It seems like it's been forever since we have had some decent MCS roll through DFW. Last year the cap killed most of them and then the year before it seemed like they always rolled in during the morning hours as they died.

[Quixotic]

The overall trend over the winter has been for precip to center east and south of DFW. These next few weeks shift the trend west, if only incrementally. It’s a step in the right direction. Severe season will be up and running in the panhandle before you know it.

We will probably have some dryline action next week. I hope we can avoid the death cap this year. It seems like it's been forever since we have had some decent MCS roll through DFW. Last year the cap killed most of them and then the year before it seemed like they always rolled in during the morning hours as they died.

My big fear, from a North Texas perspective is that the pattern ends up shifting West, so much so that we are under the influence of a death ridge east of here that precludes rainflll. It’s so early to be talking severe, yet here we are. What if summer starts in April? You know my quote: “And then, depression set in.”

[bubba hotep]

Radar starting to fill in

[downsouthman1]

Whoa radar west by Lubbock & up by OKC!

[Brent]

I'm under a Winter Storm Warning in NYC on my first-ever non summer trip

Been 3 years since i saw one in Dallas

[Cerlin]

The low seems to be in the mid 30s next week on Wednesday. There seems to be plenty of precipitation too. If temps bust like they have numerous times before, could NTX potentially see a winter event? (I know this is extremely desperate wishful thinking. )

[bubba hotep]

The 00z Euro has 8-12" of RAIN for DFW over the next 10 days

[Ntxw]

What a wild run qpf wise of that Euro run. But that's the benefit of having a parked western trough, it just draws up Pacific moisture. -SOI is money.

Now we just need to find cold and make 1" qpf snow

You can see this morning there is linkage to the tropical Pacific. Always a fan of this region. It is to us, what the gulf is to the southeast.



Personally I am hoping that this is sign we are attempting to build a moderate El Nino. Couple that with low solar and you have some pretty good analogs.

[CaptinCrunch]

Models are over doing precipitation across NTX. Didn't get much rain here at the house, just lite showers and sprinkles, but it is a chilly 42 out.

[rwfromkansas]

Rained hard a couple times but only got .10.

Big show is in a couple days though.

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS and 18z GFS both trended wetter over the next week for N. Texas. Also, I wouldn't rule out a winter wx threat for parts of Texas by the end of next week. There will be some decently cold air around and lots of energy coming out of the SW. Just need to get the timing right. Beyond that, I see a lot of potential during the 1st half of March.

I still see some potential for next week and am holding firm on the 1st half of March.

[bubba hotep]

We need the Pacific to swing our way, if we can get -EPO to pair with the -NAO then we will be in business.