Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TheProfessor]

Just a heads up but pivotal weather has a local zoom into Texas for the 3K NAM and the HRRR, It might be for the wx challenge but it might come in handy for looking at those models for the short range depending on how long it stays up.

[Tejas89]

Looks like DFW chalked up a record hi-low for today. Clouds may keep the record hi safe.

[bubba hotep]

We are just getting started with this rain event. It looks like the stormy pattern could be set into March.

[weatherdude1108]

Our lakes are getting a little low. We could use decent rains down here before the Summer hits.

[hamburgerman7070]

Looks like the mjo is on the move. If that's true and we get the -nao later, will that be enough to have one last chance at a winter event? If not what will we want to see?

[wxman57]

Looks like upper 70s made it all the way north to northern Arkansas this afternoon. I'm not seeing much cold air across Texas through the end of the month. Fronts die out as they reach SE TX. Winter is over for our area (Houston). Wouldn't rule out another freeze at IAH, but I'd say chances are good that IAH will remain above freezing. Can't rule out any additional freezes up north in the DFW area, certainly. Could see some cold air drop south in March.

[1900hurricane]

It feels good to not be cold for a change.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking more promising in the moisture department.

I think Winter may be over here, unless we have a freak frozen precip event in the next few weeks.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 152050
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
A moist southerly lower level flow brings another night with mild,
well above normal low temperatures. Areas of fog are expected
overnight into Friday morning. There could be patchy drizzle, as
well. An upper level shortwave passing north of our area will send a
cold front across our area mid to late morning in the north and
early to mid afternoon south. Moisture convergence along the front
could generate some showers and have maintained the slight chances
Friday. High temperatures will occur around late morning or midday
with steady or falling temperatures in the north while highs will be
in the afternoon across the south. The front is expected to stall
over southern Texas just south of our area Friday night. Isentropic
lift ahead of an upper level impulse will enable the showers to
become a little more widespread while cold advection allows low
temperatures to fall closer to normal Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The isentropic lift along with a series of mainly weak upper level
impulses will maintain periods of showers this weekend into early
next week. Some instability aloft could allow isolated thunderstorms
early next week. The front meanders over southern Texas on Saturday
with cooler temperatures, although a few models bring it back north
into southern parts of our area. All models show the front moving
back north on Sunday with a warming trend through Tuesday. Another
cold front drifts across our area Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
This could set the stage for some heavier rains as deep moisture and
strong lift combine with possible training of showers and storms
with an increasing low level jet and a slow moving front Tuesday
night. A weaker isentropic lift maintains periods of showers while
some elevated instability allows for mainly isolated thunderstorms
for Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures cool off a bit Wednesday
and Thursday.

[downsouthman1]

Looking more promising in the moisture department.

I think Winter may be over here, unless we have a freak frozen precip event in the next few weeks.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 152050
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
250 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
A moist southerly lower level flow brings another night with mild,
well above normal low temperatures. Areas of fog are expected
overnight into Friday morning. There could be patchy drizzle, as
well. An upper level shortwave passing north of our area will send a
cold front across our area mid to late morning in the north and
early to mid afternoon south. Moisture convergence along the front
could generate some showers and have maintained the slight chances
Friday. High temperatures will occur around late morning or midday
with steady or falling temperatures in the north while highs will be
in the afternoon across the south. The front is expected to stall
over southern Texas just south of our area Friday night. Isentropic
lift ahead of an upper level impulse will enable the showers to
become a little more widespread while cold advection allows low
temperatures to fall closer to normal Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The isentropic lift along with a series of mainly weak upper level
impulses will maintain periods of showers this weekend into early
next week. Some instability aloft could allow isolated thunderstorms
early next week. The front meanders over southern Texas on Saturday
with cooler temperatures, although a few models bring it back north
into southern parts of our area. All models show the front moving
back north on Sunday with a warming trend through Tuesday. Another
cold front drifts across our area Tuesday night into early Wednesday.
This could set the stage for some heavier rains as deep moisture and
strong lift combine with possible training of showers and storms
with an increasing low level jet and a slow moving front Tuesday
night. A weaker isentropic lift maintains periods of showers while
some elevated instability allows for mainly isolated thunderstorms
for Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures cool off a bit Wednesday
and Thursday.

Like I've been saying. This is a spring pattern. Especially with us constantly having Gulf and Pacific moisture now, something that has basically been missing all Winter. And it looks like the Pacific moisture stream will continue. It appears to me that it is very well entrenched. I don't think any cold air will overcome it. So the best we'll likely see as far as winter-like weather will be cool, overrunning events with temps above freezing.

[Brent]

I'm in NYC tonight and its so mild here you don't even need a jacket

I mean it is February, right? There's actually been moments I thought it wasn't lol

[utweather]

But but Spring doesn't start until March 20th. Fingers crossed I don't have to turn on the ac tonight.

[bubba hotep]

Newest Euro Weeklies basically lock in the current pattern all the way until April with way above avg precipitation and mild temps.

[South Texas Storms]

Newest Euro Weeklies basically lock in the current pattern all the way until April with way above avg precipitation and mild temps.

It's one of the wettest runs we've seen in quite a while. I hope it verifies!

[JayDT]

Its just been one day and I cant stand this humidity... The sad part is this is nothing compared to what it could be.. I prefer dry heat 1000 times over humid heat...

[downsouthman1]

I welcome spring. Winter gave us its best shot with the ingredients it was given. It's Texas. Seasons can change abruptly. We've all seen it before. This isn't just a front fellas; this is an airmass change.

[JDawg512]

Ahhh finally, my kind of weather, I love all this dampness streets and sidewalks wet even when the sun is shining. Can't wait for some nice rainfall!

[Yukon Cornelius]

Is something wrong with the NWS site? How do you go from an 80% chance of rain and consecutive 40% chances day after day being shown last night to not a drop and mostly clear every day being shown this morning?!

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm... The NAMs have shifted north and now have the majority of the weekend rain up in Oklahoma.

[dhweather]

Hmmm... The NAMs have shifted north and now have the majority of the weekend rain up in Oklahoma.

Of course.

[Ntxw]

Drought begets drought, heat begets more heat. Not long now as summer is on the way, enjoy the numbered cool days drawing near to the end. Max AC bills.

But hey you got 2-3 weeks of "wet" pattern ahead as a reprieve. In about 12 days, spring thread.