Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

GFS is definitely trending weaker with the cutoff

Rain is now east of most of us along 35 Friday

[South Texas Storms]

Not much precip and warmer on the 0z GFS. Big shift towards Euro this run.

[Ntxw]

In 24 hours it went from this



To this

[South Texas Storms]

And it all started with the 0z Euro run last night. Seems like the Euro is always the first model to sniff out trends.

[Brent]

if the Euro is king then where's the 13 inches at DFW

[South Texas Storms]

0z Canadian keeps the secondary low stuck along the West Coast. Gulf Coast ridge too strong.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: And it all started with the 0z Euro run last night. Seems like the Euro is always the first model to sniff out trends.

Yeah and the Euro did the same just a bit sooner

It went from this



To this

[bubba hotep]

Rinse and repeat. Big cutoff storm beyond D8 supported by the ensembles ends up being a phantom. Things trend back towards persistence and we get a sheared out positive tilted mess... At least we are getting rain today and probably Tuesday...

[Ntxw]

They've muddled the storm in lieu of bigger cold up north. 1056mb and more +PNAish look

[Ntxw]

Rinse and repeat. Big cutoff storm beyond D8 supported by the ensembles ends up being a phantom. Things trend back towards persistence and we get a sheared out positive tilted mess... At least we are getting rain today and probably Tuesday...

It's the same thing we said last week. It's not verification until it happens before calling something a phantom.

[South Texas Storms]

I can't get excited about a cold and dry possible pattern. Dry cold is not enjoyable for me. Hopefully we can get some moisture to time up with the cold later this month to bring a risk for more snow to much of the state.

[Brent]

if this cold snap goes east of us again winter cancel

I have no interest in dry cold either, already had that when it snowed on the beach...

[starsfan65]

if this cold snap goes east of us again winter cancel

I have no interest in dry cold either, already had that when it snowed on the beach...

It may come down to the NAM model on Wednesday.

[Ntxw]

if this cold snap goes east of us again winter cancel

I have no interest in dry cold either, already had that when it snowed on the beach...

Snow on the beach again in Louisiana Christmas Day per GFS

[TheProfessor]

Lol GFS showing a SE/Mid-Atlantic snow storm now. Will probably happen too.

[Brent]

snowing where it snowed the other week in Alabama on Christmas

[TheProfessor]

This GFS run would infuriate me if it happened and I was in Ohio lol. So close but no dice.

[Ntxw]

It's only a 10 days out for them. I'm sure it will happen, bullseye

Meanwhile that is one heck of a dislodge of air mass. The Arctic has bellied up into the US. Above freezing above the Arctic circle while -30s on the US/Canadian border

[South Texas Storms]

What a change in the models from 24 hours ago. Consistently showed a big trough in the west over the past few days, now showing a big trough in the east.

[Brent]

highs in Minnesota on Christmas Day -20's