Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

likely referring to the Early 2015 snowfalls that only had a few counties in a warning that went up pretty late. It's been even longer for most of the Metroplex I believe.

March 2015 I think was our last WSW. Last time we had measurable snow of more than 1"

[MississippiWx]

The Euro is gonna come out in an hour and show a Texas blizzard. Keep the faith, guys.

[EnnisTx]

Ok, I'm going to do it so everything will change and our snow storm comes back!!

WINTER CANCEL!!!!

[Ntxw]

Ok, I'm going to do it so everything will change and our snow storm comes back!!

WINTER CANCEL!!!!

Winter cancel only works if there hasn't been winter yet . We've already had bouts of it. It's a jab at the events of hurricane season.

[MississippiWx]

That GFS run would be Porta’s Grey Goose vodka type of cold for just about everyone. The polar vortex wants to setup shop in the Northern Plains.

[cheezyWXguy]

It still looks like it's gonna get quite chilly here during the last week of December. If we can get a disturbance or some lingering moisture, we might have a shot at some snow.

We still have another week before this event happens. This will change. Don't give up hope.

It probably will. But ironically enough, the models are drier because they are seeing a colder incoming air mass aloft. It is shredding the cutoff low solution that sits and rides warm air from the SW (moisture above it in the marginal temps) and shoves everything south and east.

If that is the case, then why are we so much warmer at the surface? It would seem to me that the cold air would undercut initially, potentially causing the overrunning scenario, and then either dry out or change to snow as the airmass continues to sink southward and the column cools aloft

[iorange55]

We are getting something out of this...it’ll happen! If you have the cold, you have a chance. I’m still not sold on the trend today with the Christmas storm. I don’t think we’ll get a foot of snow or the end of days ice storm. But I’d watch for more moisture being around Christmas or the day after. Maybe a light snow event.

I’d certainly take that.

[Ntxw]

That GFS run would be Porta’s Grey Goose vodka type of cold for just about everyone. The polar vortex wants to setup shop in the Northern Plains.

It is. GFS had a 1070mb high over Wyoming (I think it may be elevation related but still high) and a second Arctic origin high of 1060mb. Above 1060s is among top 5 highest readings. 1064mb is the lower 48 record from 1983. 1063 was recorded in January 1962 second place.



850s in the -30s+ does not visit the US very often

[Ntxw]

We still have another week before this event happens. This will change. Don't give up hope.

It probably will. But ironically enough, the models are drier because they are seeing a colder incoming air mass aloft. It is shredding the cutoff low solution that sits and rides warm air from the SW (moisture above it in the marginal temps) and shoves everything south and east.

If that is the case, then why are we so much warmer at the surface? It would seem to me that the cold air would undercut initially, potentially causing the overrunning scenario, and then either dry out or change to snow as the airmass continues to sink southward and the column cools aloft

The models have never really locked on the surface cold (which I don't think they will until much closer.) When the models had ice/snow you had cold enough air below marginally and warm air aloft (near and greater than 0C 850s) which is a warm layer from the moisture being pumped up from the southwest. When 850s dive below -10C that's frigid above and close to what happened last week.

The surface cold is a model issue, you'll go crazy looking at that to determine things. Remember when the GFS and Euro said we barely had a freeze? When you are looking at storms for ice/snow a good place to start is at 850 temps.

[TheProfessor]

honestly I wouldn't mind more days like today over an ice storm or brutally cold with no snow on the ground.

[EnnisTx]

Ok, I'm going to do it so everything will change and our snow storm comes back!!

WINTER CANCEL!!!!

Winter cancel only works if there hasn't been winter yet . We've already had bouts of it. It's a jab at the events of hurricane season.

Well... even though I realize that, I thought why not give it a try anyways.

Everyone can thank me when the snow starts

[cheezyWXguy]

It probably will. But ironically enough, the models are drier because they are seeing a colder incoming air mass aloft. It is shredding the cutoff low solution that sits and rides warm air from the SW (moisture above it in the marginal temps) and shoves everything south and east.

If that is the case, then why are we so much warmer at the surface? It would seem to me that the cold air would undercut initially, potentially causing the overrunning scenario, and then either dry out or change to snow as the airmass continues to sink southward and the column cools aloft

The models have never really locked on the surface cold (which I don't think they will until much closer.) When the models had ice/snow you had cold enough air below marginally and warm air aloft (near and greater than 0C 850s) which is a warm layer from the moisture being pumped up from the southwest. When 850s dive below -10C that's frigid above and close to what happened last week.

The surface cold is a model issue, you'll go crazy looking at that to determine things. Remember when the GFS and Euro said we barely had a freeze? When you are looking at storms for ice/snow a good place to start is at 850 temps.

Thanks for the answer, that gives a lot of food for thought.

[Brent]

We are getting something out of this...it’ll happen! If you have the cold, you have a chance. I’m still not sold on the trend today with the Christmas storm. I don’t think we’ll get a foot of snow or the end of days ice storm. But I’d watch for more moisture being around Christmas or the day after. Maybe a light snow event.

I’d certainly take that.

having not seen more than a light dusting since March 2015 I would agree, even an inch or two would be amazing. I just refuse to believe with this upcoming pattern we can't get out of it with SOMETHING...

I never really bought the Euro's 13 inches either... it was fun to dream, but I never really thought it was that realistic

[South Texas Storms]

I feel like we've been watching this potential storm and pattern change forever, but it's only been a few days. And we are still about a week out from it potentially happening!

[Cpv17]

It's there but weaker. When you have 1057+ MB highs it's really hard not to press the cold. Lost in the disappoint posts of snow/ice, is that monstrous HP domes are showing up.

Is that actually detrimental to our chances of getting snow/ice? You’d figure it would be better since it will be colder?

Cold alone is not enough. You need moisture, having a big low sitting to your west pumping up Pacific moisture at 30-33 is a lot easier than 850s going -10C and the zone between cold and warm is along the coast...of Louisiana.

But wouldn’t that help us get more of a snow event vs an ice event? If the precipitation is even there

[iorange55]

having not seen more than a light dusting since March 2015 I would agree, even an inch or two would be amazing. I just refuse to believe with this upcoming pattern we can't get out of it with SOMETHING...
I never really bought the Euro's 13 inches either... it was fun to dream, but I never really thought it was that realistic

I’ll be out of town the 27th — Jan. 5th, so something will definitely happen then

[Brent]

[quote="Brent”]

having not seen more than a light dusting since March 2015 I would agree, even an inch or two would be amazing. I just refuse to believe with this upcoming pattern we can't get out of it with SOMETHING...

I never really bought the Euro's 13 inches either... it was fun to dream, but I never really thought it was that realistic[/quote]


I’ll be out of town the 27th — Jan. 5th, so something will definitely happen then [/quote]

I'm going to Chicago in 3 1/2 weeks

I'm waiting for it to snow here and not there then.

[Quixotic]

As we say down here in Texas “buck up, y’all”. Get the cold in here first. The noisy southern branch will take care of itself. It doesn’t take much. A ripple or two.

A white Christmas was something unheard of for 80 years until 2009 and then again in 2012. I’d give that up in a heartbeat to avoid what we’ve seen the last two winters.

Just remember it’s going to take something to move the SE ridge and then move that 1050+ mb high out of the way. I like our chances.

[South Texas Storms]

0z GFS Ensemble continues to indicate above normal precip and below normal temps for much of TX the last week of December.

[Ntxw]

But wouldn’t that help us get more of a snow event vs an ice event? If the precipitation is even there

If you can get a disturbance to take advantage like STS mentioned. But they like to ride the warm/cold battle zone, that's why there is usually a big storm as cold air mass comes in, and when it lifts out but few between. If you look back at some of the great cold snaps (like 1983 and 1989) they were mostly dry. Too cold.