Texas Winter 2017-2018

[EnnisTx]

Temp dropped 20 degrees in less than 30 minutes in Arlington. 67 to 47....

[Brent]

Just landed at DFW that was interesting lol

[JDawg512]

I've been looking over each of the high res short range models throughout the day and I think a blend of the NAM3K and WRF-ARW seem to be roughly how the radar has played out give or take. I'm concerned that we won't see as much rain given that much of the heavier bands have either fallen just west or just east of the city, coupled with a faster front. Will see what this next impulse can do before the front arrives.

[gpsnowman]

Just landed at DFW that was interesting lol

Surprised you were not diverted. Rain has been very heavy near the airport the last couple hours. Plus some lightning and thunder. Did you bring any snow with you?

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Gainesville reporting snow right now? Can anyone verify? Duncan, ok also reporting snow. Thought profiles wouldn’t support this?

[bubba hotep]

Flash Flood warning for portions of Dallas and Collin counties

[JayDT]

Apparently Jim Cantore is on his way to Dallas lol

[Brent]

Just landed at DFW that was interesting lol

Surprised you were not diverted. Rain has been very heavy near the airport the last couple hours. Plus some lightning and thunder. Did you bring any snow with you?

We circled a bunch of times between Southern Oklahoma and northern DFW but yeah i kept thinking the next announcement would be we were diverting lol

We had a close lightning strike early on during one of the circles

On the snow...i hope so lol

[utweather]

I know this has been alluded to already here, but the EWX mentioned how the cold front is much stronger than what guidance picked up on, mentioning how Wichita Falls went from 71 to 36 in an hour, and given the density of the shallow arctic airmass, models now show the front making it all the way to the coast, with continued rain chances in the extended. It would be great if we got a couple inches, at least, out of this. Soils are dry around here.

186
FXUS64 KEWX 202112
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
312 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms have pushed to the eastern half of
the area at the present time with more robust activity currently
located in North Texas. The best low-level jet dynamics are pointing
to this same area and this will likely keep the bulk of the activity
in those places for several more hours. The attention will then turn
to the southwest as another impulse of energy within the subtropical
jet moves into the area. High-res models continue to show this area
of shower and thunderstorms moving northeast into the area this
evening. At the same time a strong arctic cold front will also be
pushing south and this will bring additional activity into our
northern counties in the evening hours as well. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely continue through most of the night and
into Wednesday before downsloping behind the front moves into the
region lessening the coverage. The threat of heavy rainfall will
likely diminish after the FROPA as well as the access to rich
boundary layer fuel is cut off. With today`s precipitation not
included, additional rainfall amounts through tomorrow will average
1-2 inches for areas north of I-10 with slightly higher amounts for
the Austin area and points to the north. There will be lesser amounts
to the southwest of the I-10 corridor. There could be some isolated
spots reaching 3-4 inches in the higher rainfall areas. Although we
can`t rule out any small hail with some of the stronger updrafts,
widespread severe weather is not anticipated from the activity.

The expected cold front is much stronger than what most guidance was
able to pick up on and this is not out of the norm for these shallow
arctic airmasses. Earlier this afternoon, the temperature in Wichita
Falls fell from 71 to 36 in an hour. The front is expected to reach
the northern counties before midnight and will move through the
remainder of the area by the mid-morning hours. There were some
thoughts that the front might stall in our area, but with the dense
cold air behind it, that does not seem at all possible and most
guidance members show the front now making it to the coast. Low
temperatures tonight and highs tomorrow will be dependent on where
the front is in the morning. Lows will likely reach the 40s behind
the front and will be in the 60s ahead of it. Highs tomorrow will
likely also be around the morning hours with temperatures likely
falling through the afternoon or holding steady. Precip chances will
lessen a bit for Wednesday night with low temperatures in the upper
30s to lower 40s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to be high Thursday as
the upper trough remains to the west and southerly flow increases at
850 owing to decent warm-air advection. Highs will likely remain in
the 50s under the cloud cover and remnant effects of the cold air.
The surface front will move back north as a warm front Thursday night
with the higher PoPs across the northern counties on the northern
nose of the front. The next frontal system arrives Saturday bringing
continued 30 to 60 PoPs to the region. Lower rain chances will
continue Sunday through Tuesday mainly across the eastern CWA. High
temperatures in the extended will be in the 60s/70s with lows in the
50s/60s.

I wonder if the Northwest Hill Country could be flirting with some wintry precip? Cold air is steadily flowing downstream nothing stopping it. (Faster south than east) Then depending on what this impulse does. Wind flow or cloud movement is almost in a parallel but opposite direction out there, north at the surface, south just above it.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Pretty icy here at the homestead. Trees already laying down some and gates are all frozen shut and this appears to be just round 1 with the main event tomorrow..

[utweather]

Pretty icy here at the homestead. Trees already laying down some and gates are all frozen shut and this appears to be just round 1 with the main event tomorrow..

Sorry about the trees laying down. I always find that look depressing. Hopefully it doesn't get worse.

[Ntxw]

More rain to the south and west of DFW. Looks like training has set up.

-SOI

[Cerlin]

My flight has been diverted to San Antonio. This is lovely.

[Jarodm12]

any thoughts? we await 00z guidance that's when we get to the bottom of this mystery ice storm. Everyone be safe out there I dont know why but my gut tells me Dfw is in for it

[Gigem12]

Freezing rain won't get south of Gainesville. DFW has too much insolation to get bad

[Jarodm12]

right now the HRRR model is within a couple degrees of DFW having a serious ice storm as we know the models have not handled this airmass well I wouldnt say that DFW is in the clear I'm excited to see the 00z guidance

[Cerlin]

anyone know if there will be a break in storm systems for flights to fly in? I’d like to be in DFW for winter weather.

[South Texas Storms]

More rain to the south and west of DFW. Looks like training has set up.

-SOI

Wish yall would share some rain with us moisture starved folks in central TX. Looks like the main thunderstorm complex might pass south of us tonight...

SA and Austin have had under 1 inch of rain so far this year.

[Tammie]

Gainesville reporting snow right now? Can anyone verify? Duncan, ok also reporting snow. Thought profiles wouldn’t support this?

I can confirm I was sitting at NCTC in Gainesville at that time and The Weather Station was reporting 38 and light snow, but it was POURING rain!

[bubba hotep]

SREF is falling way behind on the temps and current temps are now close to the coldest members that get DFW below freezing. The 00z models will be interesting for sure.