Texas Winter 2017-2018

[weatherdude1108]

SOI has ended the negative streak. Also stronger trades will return to the dateline. About 2 weeks or so down the road we may see a period of below normal precipitation if this holds value. SOI looks overall positive values the rest of Feb

Looks like it trended negative on February 20th? It's at -0.40 now. I know you all could use a break from the rain, but we could use more down here.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... soivalues/

The daily SOI is +14 for 2/22 driven by higher pressures near Tahiti the next week. The monthly SOI is what has already occured

The daily is what you want to look at, 30 and 90 day is for ENSO purposes

Ahhh. That shows how little I know about SOI.

And here I was, feeling all cool with my SOI acronym.

Seriously though, thanks for the feedback.

[Ntxw]

Ahhh. That shows how little I know about SOI.

And here I was, feeling all cool with my SOI acronym.

Seriously though, thanks for the feedback.

No problem! It is one of my favorite ENSO tools!

When you want to look for wet pattern down the road, you will start to see daily SOI dive negative -10s/-20s or more for many consecutive days. Dry periods are the opposite.
30 and 90 day SOI are averages of the SOI values accordingly the past month and 3 months.

During El Nino the 30 and 90 day SOI generally will average -8 or greater, the greater the value the more intense the Nino *generally*
During La Nina the same but positive (+8s and greater).

Thus no coincidence in an El Nino year you will see many days negative going months and months, and generally our patterns are very wet. Vice versa for La Nina.

February while in a La Nina, the SOI is one of the atmospheric measures that show more similarities with El Nino with the persistent negatives, thus we had the wetter pattern.

[Haris]

Anybody know where all this surprise rain is firing up from in the hill co. That shortwave wasnt supposed to bring precip this early?

[downsouthman1]

Anybody know where all this surprise rain is firing up from in the hill co. That shortwave wasnt supposed to bring precip this early?

Whoa! I haven't looked at radar in 2 hours and all that wasn't there then!

[South Texas Storms]

Anybody know where all this surprise rain is firing up from in the hill co. That shortwave wasnt supposed to bring precip this early?

Yeah you're right. All models had SA and Austin getting rain after midnight tonight. It's definitely starting earlier than expected, and I think it's due to the active subtropical jet stream overhead. Take a look at the Pacific satellite image than Ntxw posted on the previous page. Tons of moisture streaming in from the eastern Pacific Ocean. Sometimes the models can't see the little embedded disturbances in there.

[hamburgerman7070]

http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php#

This is the up to date Australians mjo chart. CPC hasn't updated in two days. The one in the sw part of the screen.

[Haris]

Anybody know where all this surprise rain is firing up from in the hill co. That shortwave wasnt supposed to bring precip this early?

Yeah you're right. All models had SA and Austin getting rain after midnight tonight. It's definitely starting earlier than expected, and I think it's due to the active subtropical jet stream overhead. Take a look at the Pacific satellite image than Ntxw posted on the previous page. Tons of moisture streaming in from the eastern Pacific Ocean. Sometimes the models can't see the little embedded disturbances in there.

Lotta lightning and heavy rain at the Harry weather center. Finally! Hope we get more

[bubba hotep]

WAA showers?

Warm front shows up nicely here



Once again, warm front with southerly flow into Houston/SE TX and shallow northerly flow into the Hill Country



Warm 850mb return flow over the top of the cold air



Little bit of lift showing in the 500mb vort field

[weatherdude1108]

Anybody know where all this surprise rain is firing up from in the hill co. That shortwave wasnt supposed to bring precip this early?

Yeah you're right. All models had SA and Austin getting rain after midnight tonight. It's definitely starting earlier than expected, and I think it's due to the active subtropical jet stream overhead. Take a look at the Pacific satellite image than Ntxw posted on the previous page. Tons of moisture streaming in from the eastern Pacific Ocean. Sometimes the models can't see the little embedded disturbances in there.

Lotta lightning and heavy rain at the Harry weather center. Finally! Hope we get more

Yeah, I'm getting a lot of lightning/thunder and spurts of heavy rain. This stuff developed fast. So weird at 42 degrees. Chilly and stormy!

[South Texas Storms]

Yeah that's a plausible reason as well.

0z NAM also shows a nice complex of storms moving northeastward out of Mexico early tomorrow morning reaching the SA and Austin areas around daybreak. Hope it verifies! Sure would be nice if areas that missed out earlier this week could get some beneficial rainfall with this disturbance.

[Haris]

:uarrow:
Yeah that's a plausible reason as well.

0z NAM also shows a nice complex of storms moving northeastward out of Mexico early tomorrow morning reaching the SA and Austin areas around daybreak. Hope it verifies! Sure would be nice if areas that missed out earlier this week could get some beneficial rainfall with this disturbance.

This could be good. Seeing radar of del rio, radar beams showing lots of rain in NE Mexico moving towards Austin. All the rain in SATX beginning to move N towards ATX too. We could be seeing a decent rain event unfolding. Maybeee?

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:
Yeah that's a plausible reason as well.

0z NAM also shows a nice complex of storms moving northeastward out of Mexico early tomorrow morning reaching the SA and Austin areas around daybreak. Hope it verifies! Sure would be nice if areas that missed out earlier this week could get some beneficial rainfall with this disturbance.

This could be good. Seeing radar of del rio, radar beams showing lots of rain in NE Mexico moving towards Austin. All the rain in SATX beginning to move N towards ATX too. We could be seeing a decent rain event unfolding. Maybeee?

That's the hope! There is still a lot of moisture back in Mexico with the disturbance. Radar echoes continue to increase across northeastern Mexico. Bring on the rain!

[downsouthman1]

This activity around Austin San Antonio will drift east very slowly.

Holy Moly. This developed out of nothing. Austin radar!

[Ntxw]

Yeah it's not too surprising considering what is going on. Weak disturbances are riding the subtropical jet fed from the Pacific, models are not always great with this. You can clearly depict the "highway" of mid level moisture. PWATS are rather high too so once you get the storms going, efficient rain makers.

[downsouthman1]

So a ridge and a low are channeling the moisture straight over TX.

[Brent]

here we go again... loud thunderstorm and pouring rain in waterlogged eastern Dallas

Looks to be training right over Rockwall too

I don't want to hear about the drought again for awhile.

I havent even seen the sun since I was in NYC

[gpsnowman]

Who needs an alarm clock at 3:20 when mother nature can provide one at 2:40? Bright lightning and loud tbunder will do that. Good morning rain lovers. Wakey, wakey.

[EnnisTx]

Looks like the folks down in San Antonio and Austin will get a nice share of the rain this morning. Nice returns down that way...

[wxman57]

Front is still hung up over Houston. It moved to my north yesterday afternoon, but slipped a few miles south of my house overnight. Down to 63 now. Noticed that my azaleas are full of flower buds.

(t-25 days)

[Texas Snowman]

It’s 36 in Denison with a frog strangling tropical downpour going on (with some thunder and lightning).

Ice storm a day ago, a number of people still without power. Flash flood watch today with cold rain on tap.

Still wintertime here in the Red River Valley.