Texas Winter 2017-2018

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Yukon Cornelius
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#161 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:37 pm

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A (El Paso, TX; Albuquerque, NM; Tucson, AZ; Phoenix, AZ; Las Vegas, NV): This region will feature bland winter conditions. Temperatures and precipitation will be near average. The best chance for rain and snow in this area will come with cutoff lows that can develop southwest of California and move across the Southwest or through northern Mexico into southwestern Texas. It is possible upslope freezing drizzle may occur at times in west Texas.

B (Houston, TX; New Orleans, LA; Biloxi, MS; Montgomery, AL; Augusta, GA; Charleston, SC): This region will be characterized by temperatures above average and precipitation near to slightly below average. Do not let the above average temperatures fool you, though. Temperatures will swing from warm to cold frequently. During these temperature swings, it is possible that severe weather will occur. It is possible the northern parts of this region will see one significant winter weather event.

C (Dallas, TX; Shreveport, LA; Jackson, MS; Birmingham, AL; Huntsville, AL; Atlanta, GA; Chattanooga, TN; Knoxville, TN; Ashville, NC; Washington D.C.): This region will be characterized by temperatures near normal and a very active storm track. Temperatures will see great variance between warm to cold, and thunderstorms possibly followed by sleet and wet snow. Western parts of this region have a higher percentage to see an ice storm, and at least two winter storms are possible in this area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#162 Postby Snowflake7 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:08 pm

THIS MAKES ME HAPPY :cold: :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#163 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:18 pm

Its part of Christopher Nunley's winter forecast. He's usually pretty accurate.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#164 Postby Brent » Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:04 pm

what was his forecast the last 2 winters?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#165 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:46 am

Brent wrote:what was his forecast the last 2 winters?

he was pretty accurate on his 2015-2016 forecast but failed on his 2016-2017 forecast, much like everyone that released one did.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#166 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:20 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:A (El Paso, TX; Albuquerque, NM; Tucson, AZ; Phoenix, AZ; Las Vegas, NV): This region will feature bland winter conditions. Temperatures and precipitation will be near average. The best chance for rain and snow in this area will come with cutoff lows that can develop southwest of California and move across the Southwest or through northern Mexico into southwestern Texas. It is possible upslope freezing drizzle may occur at times in west Texas.

B (Houston, TX; New Orleans, LA; Biloxi, MS; Montgomery, AL; Augusta, GA; Charleston, SC): This region will be characterized by temperatures above average and precipitation near to slightly below average. Do not let the above average temperatures fool you, though. Temperatures will swing from warm to cold frequently. During these temperature swings, it is possible that severe weather will occur. It is possible the northern parts of this region will see one significant winter weather event.

C (Dallas, TX; Shreveport, LA; Jackson, MS; Birmingham, AL; Huntsville, AL; Atlanta, GA; Chattanooga, TN; Knoxville, TN; Ashville, NC; Washington D.C.): This region will be characterized by temperatures near normal and a very active storm track. Temperatures will see great variance between warm to cold, and thunderstorms possibly followed by sleet and wet snow. Western parts of this region have a higher percentage to see an ice storm, and at least two winter storms are possible in this area.

I really like his forecasts for individual systems. I hope he has a good handle on this winter season. I mostly agree with what he says. My fear is that I think if there is a bust it will be towards warm and dry as we have yet to see low heights set up in the SW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#167 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:45 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:A (El Paso, TX; Albuquerque, NM; Tucson, AZ; Phoenix, AZ; Las Vegas, NV): This region will feature bland winter conditions. Temperatures and precipitation will be near average. The best chance for rain and snow in this area will come with cutoff lows that can develop southwest of California and move across the Southwest or through northern Mexico into southwestern Texas. It is possible upslope freezing drizzle may occur at times in west Texas.

B (Houston, TX; New Orleans, LA; Biloxi, MS; Montgomery, AL; Augusta, GA; Charleston, SC): This region will be characterized by temperatures above average and precipitation near to slightly below average. Do not let the above average temperatures fool you, though. Temperatures will swing from warm to cold frequently. During these temperature swings, it is possible that severe weather will occur. It is possible the northern parts of this region will see one significant winter weather event.

C (Dallas, TX; Shreveport, LA; Jackson, MS; Birmingham, AL; Huntsville, AL; Atlanta, GA; Chattanooga, TN; Knoxville, TN; Ashville, NC; Washington D.C.): This region will be characterized by temperatures near normal and a very active storm track. Temperatures will see great variance between warm to cold, and thunderstorms possibly followed by sleet and wet snow. Western parts of this region have a higher percentage to see an ice storm, and at least two winter storms are possible in this area.

I really like his forecasts for individual systems. I hope he has a good handle on this winter season. I mostly agree with what he says. My fear is that I think if there is a bust it will be towards warm and dry as we have yet to see low heights set up in the SW.

I agree. Its crazy how easy both warm and dry are to obtain these days. Very rarely do you see a temp bust lean toward cold anymore.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#168 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:56 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:I agree. Its crazy how easy both warm and dry are to obtain these days. Very rarely do you see a temp bust lean toward cold anymore.
I am just thankful that I will have 5 frosts by T-Day. I do believe we will get some good cold this season multiple times vs last year only getting one.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#169 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Nov 21, 2017 1:59 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:I agree. Its crazy how easy both warm and dry are to obtain these days. Very rarely do you see a temp bust lean toward cold anymore.
I am just thankful that I will have 5 frosts by T-Day. I do believe we will get some good cold this season multiple times vs last year only getting one.

we are at 3 here with 2 freezes so far. I look at pics from friends and family further down south and they still have lush green lawns and are still mowing! Our grass has been dormant for a while now as I'm sure yours is too.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#170 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Nov 21, 2017 5:58 pm

The models continue to flip around in the longer range and have trended back towards a more active look heading into December. Was the false start a couple of days ago a classic case of models being too fast with a pattern change? It still looks like we still see some tropical forcing with the MJO moving through 3/4 but there might be some KW signal mixed in. Regardless, the tropical forcing might be just enough to buck the la nina background and give Texas an active start to December.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#171 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 22, 2017 12:09 am

End of the 0z GFS looks interesing

Too bad its 300+ hours out, big snowstorm in West Texas, a narrow band of snow even crosses the state and is in DFW, however the lowest temp on the meteogram is a mere 41 :lol:

I am slightly optimistic that at least there are signals of a more active pattern in early December

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#172 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Nov 22, 2017 11:34 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:I agree. Its crazy how easy both warm and dry are to obtain these days. Very rarely do you see a temp bust lean toward cold anymore.
I am just thankful that I will have 5 frosts by T-Day. I do believe we will get some good cold this season multiple times vs last year only getting one.

we are at 3 here with 2 freezes so far. I look at pics from friends and family further down south and they still have lush green lawns and are still mowing! Our grass has been dormant for a while now as I'm sure yours is too.

What's a frost? LOL!! Freeze?? HAHA!!!
Oh, never mind!! I live in Houston! :( :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#173 Postby Portastorm » Wed Nov 22, 2017 2:48 pm

Saw this image on Twitter this morning. This person said they did an analysis of the last 21 Ninas of varying strength and this was the CONUS temp composite for Dec-Feb. If it is accurate it suggests that only about half of the Ninas end up above normal, temperature-wise, for much of Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#174 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Nov 22, 2017 6:19 pm

Portastorm wrote:Saw this image on Twitter this morning. This person said they did an analysis of the last 21 Ninas of varying strength and this was the CONUS temp composite for Dec-Feb. If it is accurate it suggests that only about half of the Ninas end up above normal, temperature-wise, for much of Texas.

Image


When I was running some analogs last year this jumped out at me. Strong ninas are basically always bad for Texas. Then it is a mixed bag as you filter towards weak. The weak nina years seemed to give the best chance of cool and wet.

Then this year, IIRC, there were only a few analogs that matched the QBO flip and only one was a torch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#175 Postby Brent » Wed Nov 22, 2017 8:43 pm

some pretty good years on there that's for sure

also a few really terrible years
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#176 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:01 am

No signs of any freezes at DFW through the 1st week of Dec...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#177 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:48 am

Ugly...

Image

But I'll gladly take this as a consolation prize

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#178 Postby wxman57 » Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:59 am

I'm trying to bring y'all some cold air and snow this winter (as I promised after last year's lack of winter), but I'm not having much luck. My cold-mongering coworker says it will be colder than last winter, which isn't saying much, he admits. La Nina generally means above normal temps and below normal precip for us.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#179 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Nov 23, 2017 11:08 am

wxman57 wrote:I'm trying to bring y'all some cold air and snow this winter (as I promised after last year's lack of winter), but I'm not having much luck. My cold-mongering coworker says it will be colder than last winter, which isn't saying much, he admits. La Nina generally means above normal temps and below normal precip for us.


I remember back when the models said we would have an el nino winter... oh what could've been :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#180 Postby Brent » Thu Nov 23, 2017 12:55 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm trying to bring y'all some cold air and snow this winter (as I promised after last year's lack of winter), but I'm not having much luck. My cold-mongering coworker says it will be colder than last winter, which isn't saying much, he admits. La Nina generally means above normal temps and below normal precip for us.


I still haven't forgiven the models for the cold Christmas last year... and the analogs from the 80s lol
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