Texas Winter 2017-2018

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TeamPlayersBlue
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#61 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:54 pm

Im an amateur at this but yeah i still think its too early to call what winter will be like. I would love a 13-14 winter but that was an anomaly, and so far, we arent seeing the HOT pool of water in the GOA. The pacific and NPAC has been all over the place with temps. I will say, i want a cool 1+2. I put alot more weight into this region after what happened last year. 6 weeks and we will be watching snow depth ion Siberia!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#62 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:01 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Im an amateur at this but yeah i still think its too early to call what winter will be like. I would love a 13-14 winter but that was an anomaly, and so far, we arent seeing the HOT pool of water in the GOA. The pacific and NPAC has been all over the place with temps. I will say, i want a cool 1+2. I put alot more weight into this region after what happened last year. 6 weeks and we will be watching snow depth ion Siberia!


Won't be long before some good fronts start appearing on the GFS

I'm so ready...

384 hours out is now September...
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#63 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:30 am

Is there any way to tell if the MJO will be active ahead of time? I believe they occur more during La ninas right?


1+2 seems to be cooling. Maybe due to the massive Highs near SA. We need a warm pool to develop near the GOA.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#64 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 17, 2017 8:36 am

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:Is there any way to tell if the MJO will be active ahead of time? I believe they occur more during La ninas right?


1+2 seems to be cooling. Maybe due to the massive Highs near SA. We need a warm pool to develop near the GOA.


MJO is most active (crosses the globe) during neutral years. La Nina and El Nino holds the forcings to their preferred locations from the MJO (Nino pacific phases and Whem, while La Nina holds it to the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent phases)

We can probably expect several MJO events this winter spanning 30-60 day recurring periods
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#65 Postby Janie2006 » Fri Aug 25, 2017 2:10 pm

Ok gang, the season isn't far off and it's time to roll your dice and takes your chances. No whammys, no whammys, no whammys.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#66 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Aug 29, 2017 12:52 pm

Last time we had a hurricane hit Texas, we had a snowstorm in December. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#67 Postby BTAYLOR5021 » Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:54 pm

Slightly cooler than average august In DFW...October like weather the first week September...please someone tell me this is a earlt indicator of a cold wet snowy winter for Texas
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#68 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Sep 11, 2017 3:49 pm

BTAYLOR5021 wrote:Slightly cooler than average august In DFW...October like weather the first week September...please someone tell me this is a earlt indicator of a cold wet snowy winter for Texas


"this is an early indicator of a cold wet snowy winter for Texas" :P
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#69 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:33 am

Well, this is encouraging news.

Image

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#70 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:44 am

La Nina tends to favor colder weather in the front half vs the back half. Personally I am rooting for neutral just to spice things up a bit :D. At least we know Canada will be cold since no El Nino, just a matter if it can be shoved south.

I do like the raised mslp in the Gulf of Alaska region on those Ukmet maps. Perhaps we can trend the Aleutian ridge further east than last year.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#71 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:57 am

Ntxw wrote:La Nina tends to favor colder weather in the front half vs the back half. Personally I am rooting for neutral just to spice things up a bit :D. At least we know Canada will be cold since no El Nino, just a matter if it can be shoved south.

I do like the raised mslp in the Gulf of Alaska region on those Ukmet maps. Perhaps we can trend the Aleutian ridge further east than last year.


But but..Gentleman...we did not HAVE a Winter last year...sigh..
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#72 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:39 am

:uarrow:

Don't you worry about that. Wxman57 has promised us repeatedly a winter full of cold and ice and snow for Texas. :wink:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#73 Postby Tireman4 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 10:50 am

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Don't you worry about that. Wxman57 has promised us repeatedly a winter full of cold and ice and snow for Texas. :wink:


Well, you know...after over 10 years of knowing him..not sure if he is pulling our leg or not. Plus, he still has the bi-polar avatar. If he starts giving dual forecasts ( cold and warm) this Winter, I just quit. LOL
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#74 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:51 pm

So if it does end being a Nina winter can we go ahead and post up the annual "Winter Cancel"? :cry:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#75 Postby Portastorm » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:59 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:So if it does end being a Nina winter can we go ahead and post up the annual "Winter Cancel"? :cry:


Oh heck no ... even in some of the worst La Nina winters there are always several Arctic outbreaks in Texas that drop jaws as well as temperatures some 50-60 degrees. While it would be more likely than not that we would experience a warmer/drier than normal winter in a Nina, there have been Nina winters not like that. ENSO values are just part of the equation. There are other factors in play.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#76 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:07 pm

Portastorm wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:So if it does end being a Nina winter can we go ahead and post up the annual "Winter Cancel"? :cry:


Oh heck no ... even in some of the worst La Nina winters there are always several Arctic outbreaks in Texas that drop jaws as well as temperatures some 50-60 degrees. While it would be more likely than not that we would experience a warmer/drier than normal winter in a Nina, there have been Nina winters not like that. ENSO values are just part of the equation. There are other factors in play.

Last year would be a pretty good example of that. 8 degrees with a negative wind chill on Dec. 18th, I think it was and then another temp drop, although not as extreme, later in the season. Ill honestly lose my mind if this winter ends up being warm. Literally lose my mind! The last time we had a hurricane hit Texas, that winter, if I remember right was a pretty good one. Also, sunspots?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#77 Postby JDawg512 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:27 pm

As you all know I'm not as focused on temps as I am with precipitation and while each event has some variations, we tend to not do very well in the rain department during La Niña's. Give me a wet winter anytime and I'll be a happy rain miser.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#78 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:14 pm

From the Old Farmers Almanac. Take it with a grain of salt. However, they did nail last winters outlook with a mild and dry forecast.
Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#79 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 13, 2017 2:58 pm

http://www.wfaa.com/weather/cold-snowy- ... /474391920

same source but apparently its in the Dallas media now :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#80 Postby newtotex » Wed Sep 13, 2017 3:13 pm

I just want a couple of good snows, is that so much to ask? The older I get the more I start to like Fall and Winter rather than Summer, so I look forward to cold weather more now and seeing some snow! I want more than the one little dinky dusting we got here in Dallas in January.
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