Texas Winter 2017-2018

[South Texas Storms]

It still looks like it's gonna get quite chilly here during the last week of December. If we can get a disturbance or some lingering moisture, we might have a shot at some snow.

[Brent]

another 6 inches in Alabama

[starsfan65]

It still looks like it's gonna get quite chilly here during the last week of December. If we can get a disturbance or some lingering moisture, we might have a shot at some snow.

We still have another week before this event happens. This will change. Don't give up hope.

[Cpv17]

It still looks like it's gonna get quite chilly here during the last week of December. If we can get a disturbance or some lingering moisture, we might have a shot at some snow.

We still have another week before this event happens. This will change.

Yep it sure will change.

[weatherdude1108]

Pretty decent rain out this way tonight.

Yeah this turned out to be a nice rain event. Models underestimated it, especially across central and north Texas.

I got 1.3 inches out of it today. Puddles in backyard!

[Brent]

it sure is cold though, DFW in the 20s all day December 26th and 27th

Highs in the upper 30s Christmas Eve and Christmas Day

[Ntxw]

It still looks like it's gonna get quite chilly here during the last week of December. If we can get a disturbance or some lingering moisture, we might have a shot at some snow.

We still have another week before this event happens. This will change. Don't give up hope.

It probably will. But ironically enough, the models are drier because they are seeing a colder incoming air mass aloft. It is shredding the cutoff low solution that sits and rides warm air from the SW (moisture above it in the marginal temps) and shoves everything south and east.

[Cpv17]

It still looks like it's gonna get quite chilly here during the last week of December. If we can get a disturbance or some lingering moisture, we might have a shot at some snow.

We still have another week before this event happens. This will change. Don't give up hope.

It probably will. But ironically enough, the models are drier because they are seeing a colder incoming air mass aloft. It is shredding the cutoff low solution that sits and rides warm air from the SW (moisture above it in the marginal temps) and shoves everything south and east.

Whatever happened to the SE ridge?

[missygirl810]

It still looks like it's gonna get quite chilly here during the last week of December. If we can get a disturbance or some lingering moisture, we might have a shot at some snow.

We still have another week before this event happens. This will change. Don't give up hope.

It probably will. But ironically enough, the models are drier because they are seeing a colder incoming air mass aloft. It is shredding the cutoff low solution that sits and rides warm air from the SW (moisture above it in the marginal temps) and shoves everything south and east.

Just curious as to what you think might change?

[South Texas Storms]

It still looks like it's gonna get quite chilly here during the last week of December. If we can get a disturbance or some lingering moisture, we might have a shot at some snow.

We still have another week before this event happens. This will change. Don't give up hope.

It probably will. But ironically enough, the models are drier because they are seeing a colder incoming air mass aloft. It is shredding the cutoff low solution that sits and rides warm air from the SW (moisture above it in the marginal temps) and shoves everything south and east.

Yeah the progged cold air mass will be deep enough for snow if we can get a lingering disturbance with it. Thicknesses are favorable for snow as the dominant precip type.

[Brent]

meanwhile the CMC has 60s on Christmas Eve and 70s in Houston Christmas Day LOL

[Ntxw]

We still have another week before this event happens. This will change. Don't give up hope.

It probably will. But ironically enough, the models are drier because they are seeing a colder incoming air mass aloft. It is shredding the cutoff low solution that sits and rides warm air from the SW (moisture above it in the marginal temps) and shoves everything south and east.

Whatever happened to the SE ridge?

It's there but weaker. When you have 1057+ MB highs it's really hard not to press the cold. Lost in the disappoint posts of snow/ice, is that monstrous HP domes are showing up.

[South Texas Storms]

Winter storm in north TX on the GFS the day before New Years Eve.

[Cpv17]

It probably will. But ironically enough, the models are drier because they are seeing a colder incoming air mass aloft. It is shredding the cutoff low solution that sits and rides warm air from the SW (moisture above it in the marginal temps) and shoves everything south and east.

Whatever happened to the SE ridge?

It's there but weaker. When you have 1057+ MB highs it's really hard not to press the cold. Lost in the disappoint posts of snow/ice, is that monstrous HP domes are showing up.

Is that actually detrimental to our chances of getting snow/ice? You’d figure it would be better since it will be colder?

[Ntxw]

We still have another week before this event happens. This will change. Don't give up hope.

It probably will. But ironically enough, the models are drier because they are seeing a colder incoming air mass aloft. It is shredding the cutoff low solution that sits and rides warm air from the SW (moisture above it in the marginal temps) and shoves everything south and east.

Just curious as to what you think might change?

Probably a lot. Come Mon-Weds I think we'll know if it makes or breaks (the big storm)

[missygirl810]

It probably will. But ironically enough, the models are drier because they are seeing a colder incoming air mass aloft. It is shredding the cutoff low solution that sits and rides warm air from the SW (moisture above it in the marginal temps) and shoves everything south and east.

Just curious as to what you think might change?

Probably a lot. Come Mon-Weds I think we'll know if it makes or breaks (the big storm)

I am scared to find out to be honest lol. Just have a feeling it will be cold and that is all.

[Ntxw]

Whatever happened to the SE ridge?

It's there but weaker. When you have 1057+ MB highs it's really hard not to press the cold. Lost in the disappoint posts of snow/ice, is that monstrous HP domes are showing up.

Is that actually detrimental to our chances of getting snow/ice? You’d figure it would be better since it will be colder?

Cold alone is not enough. You need moisture, having a big low sitting to your west pumping up Pacific moisture at 30-33 is a lot easier than 850s going -10C and the zone between cold and warm is along the coast...of Louisiana.

[bubba hotep]

Winter storm in north TX on the GFS the day before New Years Eve.

Despite the bad model trends today, the potential is certainly there for a winter wx system at some point. The 12z Euro EPS actually increased the chances for winter wx across N. Texas over the next two weeks, even as it decreased the chances of a big Christmas system.

[TheProfessor]

This map show how bad the winter storm drought has been in parts of the Midwest, Plains, and southern plains.

Columbus is approaching 2 years without a WSW and it's been well over 2 years here in Dallas. I'm not sure if they take the latest date a WSW was issued for a CWO because if so then this is likely referring to the Early 2015 snowfalls that only had a few counties in a warning that went up pretty late. It's been even longer for most of the Metroplex I believe.

[South Texas Storms]

Winter storm in north TX on the GFS the day before New Years Eve.

Despite the bad model trends today, the potential is certainly there for a winter wx system at some point. The 12z Euro EPS actually increased the chances for winter wx across N. Texas over the next two weeks, even as it decreased the chances of a big Christmas system.

Yeah it looks like one ingredient will be there, and that's the cold. We just need the second one to be there as well, and that's the disturbance.