Texas Winter 2017-2018

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4761 Postby Portastorm » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:45 am

We all have opinions about the climate and it's trends. Or lack thereof. Please keep those kinds of posts off this thread. Thank you!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4762 Postby Theepicman116 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:52 am

So I’m rather confused. On the maps like the one Orangeblood posted
I thought that red meant heat and the blue meant cold. Is it the other way around with Red meaning cold and the Blue meaning Warm? Or does it refer to velocity? Like Red would be positive and Blue would be negative?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4763 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:57 am

Theepicman116 wrote:So I’m rather confused. On the maps like the one Orangeblood posted
orangeblood wrote:
I thought that red meant heat and the blue meant cold. Is it the other way around with Red meaning cold and the Blue meaning Warm? Or does it refer to velocity? Like Red would be positive and Blue would be negative?

The latter is correct. Red is a positive anomaly and blue is a negative anomaly on TT.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4764 Postby Agua » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:08 am

Very much agree. Should have mentioned that several posts back.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4765 Postby Cerlin » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:34 am

Currently looking at various weather apps and many have temps in the 50's and 60's that seem to be climbing steadily. Are we really getting another arctic outbreak and this is just unreliable generic weather apps or are we pretty much out of winter chances for January.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4766 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:44 am

12z GFS took a step towards a colder solution and better ejecting of late week's storm. If suppression.theme continues it may lose the central plains leading wave and trend south
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4767 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:48 am

Cerlin wrote:Currently looking at various weather apps and many have temps in the 50's and 60's that seem to be climbing steadily. Are we really getting another arctic outbreak and this is just unreliable generic weather apps or are we pretty much out of winter chances for January.

From my experience, forecast apps take a conservative approach to their forecasts and adjust accordingly as the days get closer to weather events. For instance a couple different forecasts had highs in the 40s and 50s for a couple of the days during this last cold outbreak. Those days ended up with highs around 19 and 22 and wasn't changed on the forecast until a couple days beforehand. Even then, the forecasted highs were still a little high.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4768 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:12z GFS took a step towards a colder solution and better ejecting of late week's storm. If suppression.theme continues it may lose the central plains leading wave and trend south


Yep, its right outside of a decent accuracy window for the operational...getting close to knowing if we'll actually have something decent to discuss around here next week

The Upper Level configuration across Canada is definitely trending much more favorable to us compared to the last few days model runs
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4769 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 04, 2018 1:36 pm

Euro has 1040s HP with anomalous cold air coming in W-Can as storm is crashing into west coast
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4770 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:04 pm

We'll need to watch our sensible weather pattern mid next week. The GFS has a Winter Storm crossing the Central Plains next week and the 12Z ECMWF suggests a sneaky upper low with its origin in the NE Pacific crashing onshore in California bringing low elevation rainfall and hefty higher elevation snowfall. Could be a significant Southern Rockies Winter Storm for those traveling to New Mexico/Colorado for the MLK Day Holiday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4771 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 2:06 pm

I'm not seeing any more winter weather threats for Texas through at least the 15th. EC and GFS ensembles suggest not until maybe February. February is often the snowiest month across Texas. Prior to then, major warm-up across the northern U.S. and Canada next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4772 Postby orangeblood » Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:36 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any more winter weather threats for Texas through at least the 15th. EC and GFS ensembles suggest not until maybe February. February is often the snowiest month across Texas. Prior to then, major warm-up across the northern U.S. and Canada next week.


So you don't think the sub 550mb low barrelling across Texas on the 12Z Euro at hr 168, in the middle of January, is any sort of wintry threat for Texas ???

Image

I think it's safe to say at some point there's a warm up coming but it's not next week across the northern US into Canada, at least according to the Ensembles

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4773 Postby Cerlin » Thu Jan 04, 2018 3:43 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
Cerlin wrote:Currently looking at various weather apps and many have temps in the 50's and 60's that seem to be climbing steadily. Are we really getting another arctic outbreak and this is just unreliable generic weather apps or are we pretty much out of winter chances for January.

From my experience, forecast apps take a conservative approach to their forecasts and adjust accordingly as the days get closer to weather events. For instance a couple different forecasts had highs in the 40s and 50s for a couple of the days during this last cold outbreak. Those days ended up with highs around 19 and 22 and wasn't changed on the forecast until a couple days beforehand. Even then, the forecasted highs were still a little high.


Thank you for the insight that makes a lot of sense. :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4774 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:39 pm

orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any more winter weather threats for Texas through at least the 15th. EC and GFS ensembles suggest not until maybe February. February is often the snowiest month across Texas. Prior to then, major warm-up across the northern U.S. and Canada next week.


So you don't think the sub 550mb low barrelling across Texas on the 12Z Euro at hr 168, in the middle of January, is any sort of wintry threat for Texas ???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... m_us_8.png

I think it's safe to say at some point there's a warm up coming but it's not next week across the northern US into Canada, at least according to the Ensembles

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... amer_6.png


I think that the air ahead of the front will be way too warm aloft, and the air behind it too dry.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4775 Postby Ralph's Weather » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any more winter weather threats for Texas through at least the 15th. EC and GFS ensembles suggest not until maybe February. February is often the snowiest month across Texas. Prior to then, major warm-up across the northern U.S. and Canada next week.


So you don't think the sub 550mb low barrelling across Texas on the 12Z Euro at hr 168, in the middle of January, is any sort of wintry threat for Texas ???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... m_us_8.png

I think it's safe to say at some point there's a warm up coming but it's not next week across the northern US into Canada, at least according to the Ensembles

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... amer_6.png


I think that the air ahead of the front will be way too warm aloft, and the air behind it too dry.


That is def the most likely outcome. Storms have wanted to dig more than modeled this season though so we will watch it. If this digs to N Mex rather than hook through Amarillo then there is def plenty of cold for that to produce. If it tracks north of us then we almost never will have enough cold for winter precip.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4776 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 4:44 pm

wxman57 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing any more winter weather threats for Texas through at least the 15th. EC and GFS ensembles suggest not until maybe February. February is often the snowiest month across Texas. Prior to then, major warm-up across the northern U.S. and Canada next week.


So you don't think the sub 550mb low barrelling across Texas on the 12Z Euro at hr 168, in the middle of January, is any sort of wintry threat for Texas ???

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... m_us_8.png

I think it's safe to say at some point there's a warm up coming but it's not next week across the northern US into Canada, at least according to the Ensembles

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... amer_6.png


I think that the air ahead of the front will be way too warm aloft, and the air behind it too dry.


What areas of the state do you think this will greatest impact as of now? Will SE TX see anything from this?
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4777 Postby Ntxw » Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:41 pm

Models had it, sort of lost it, brought the big HP and have trended colder again for mid to late week. As posted above, anomalous cold air next week up in W Canada. I'd look for trends south as the weekend goes on.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4778 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:24 pm

Latest Euro Weeklies look interesting as we head into February. Colder than normal temps with above avg precip.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4779 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:15 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
I think that the air ahead of the front will be way too warm aloft, and the air behind it too dry.


What areas of the state do you think this will greatest impact as of now? Will SE TX see anything from this?


Moisture ahead of the front across SE TX may be limited. We could see a band of showers move through next Thursday ahead of the front. Couldn't rule out a thunderstorm. Certainly nothing remotely close to winter-type precipitation here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#4780 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:33 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Latest Euro Weeklies look interesting as we head into February. Colder than normal temps with above avg precip.


This run was certainly more encouraging than the Monday run. The control has 3 systems bringing winter wx to Texas with one being a really big storm. The coming warm up doesn't look to last very long, this is already showing up in the longer range ensembles and is now supported by this run of the Weeklies.
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