Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

The EPO is something also to watch. While the AO/NAO couplet is nice, we can add some surface cold with it when/if the EPO plays along



March 1-5 or so seems to be the convergence point of the indexes peaking negative.

[Ntxw]

For those of you looking to do early planting, the teleconnections is pointing in the direction of a late season freeze (I-20 and north). These indexes are not on the side you want to transplant into the ground. I'd wait a little longer.

[northjaxpro]

I continue to see the return of chilly and possibly wet weather the first full week of March in the longer range GEFS Ensemble schemes. The Teleconnection Indices continue to advertise a extremely negative Arctic Oscillation and extremely negative North Atlantic Oscillation as a result of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event that happen last week. This sort of Northern Hemispheric Blocking pattern is capable of ushering in much colder air across a large expanse of North America including Texas.

Yes, indeed. I have been anticipating this pattern change since the second week of February and it looks like the period from March 3 - March 10 will be when we see the big changes occur, especially across the Eastern CONUS. Old Man Winter is not quite done with us yet folks! I mentioned in the Deep South Winter thread last weekend for folks not to start planting the spring garden too early, with this pattern change in mind.

[Ntxw]

After picking up a little over half inch of rain at DFW this morning, another batch is coming through

[rwfromkansas]

Now over 4 inches for the event in north FW. Some areas close are higher, but had a couple "near misses" on some heavy storms so a little less here. But, that's extremely impressive for February. Extremely. And the totals just a bit further east are insane. Looks like DFW will end up getting a wetter start than even last year this time, which was also pretty good. That's important to rack up totals before summer comes.

[gpsnowman]

All the rain this week has been awesome. Loved every minute of it. But all good things must end, I'm ready for some sunshine and drier air.

[downsouthman1]

All the rain this week has been awesome. Loved every minute of it. But all good things must end, I'm ready for some sunshine and drier air.

I would feel the same if I got 10" rain in 3 days. But we still need a lot of rain here.

[Haris]

After picking up a little over half inch of rain at DFW this morning, another batch is coming through

So NTXW, while Austin wintry weather chances are 0, will we see decent rains around the area. For early March

[Ntxw]

There will be additional chances for rainfall in the state for about 2 more weeks into mid March. With the western trough in place and the lag effect of the past -SOI will keep the STJ active. Beyond that we will begin to feel the +SOI happening now along with stronger tradewinds near the dateline. That will shut the Pacific linkage off second half of March.

[aggiecutter]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 4
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CST SAT FEB 24 2018

TORNADO WATCH 4 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC037-063-067-119-159-183-203-223-277-315-343-379-387-423-449-
459-467-499-250000-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0004.180224T1700Z-180225T0000Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BOWIE CAMP CASS
DELTA FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON HOPKINS LAMAR
MARION MORRIS RAINS
RED RIVER SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$

[opticsguy]

My tomatoes have been growing under lights since mid-January. They need to be outside. This is the critical time to get enough of a growing season before hot weather diseases kick in. I'm going to plant tomorrow and be prepared to dig them up if a freeze comes. Under 40F will put them into shock but a few warm sunny days fixes that.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

We folks in S Central and SE Texas will need to monitor the chances of heavy rainfall and possibly some elevated training thunderstorms tonight into Sunday as a very slow moving cool front approach this evening. A skinny line of thunderstorms look to approach our Northern Zones this evening, but a series of embedded disturbances riding along that very noisy sub tropical jet look to cross the SE Texas area tonight where heavy rainfall may focus along and S of the front before transitioning further inland tomorrow morning and possibly throughout the day and evening hours. While widespread flood concerns are minimal, there are suggestions from some of our higher resolution shorter range guidance that some locations could pick up 1-3 inch amounts, possibly higher where training storms do occur. There are a lot of outdoor activities underway with the Rodeo in town, so stay weather aware and have alternate plans should our weather turn wet and stormy.

So i looked at the HRRR and i dont like this type of setup at all for Houston. Boundaries that get stuck over the area with PWAT levels between 1.5 and 1.8. Not good. Love my houston mets too but bad things happen often when they DONT predict them.Not exactly sure how it differs from past events but im kinda worried about this evening. Rodeo is in town, plus, i have a flight to catch at 1030 tomorrow. Lets hope the front movs through the area and doesnt hang around.


For you DFW folk and your snow drought. You poooorrrrr things! ;p I still think you have a snow event coming. Things are looking good in early march for you.

[Haris]

We folks in S Central and SE Texas will need to monitor the chances of heavy rainfall and possibly some elevated training thunderstorms tonight into Sunday as a very slow moving cool front approach this evening. A skinny line of thunderstorms look to approach our Northern Zones this evening, but a series of embedded disturbances riding along that very noisy sub tropical jet look to cross the SE Texas area tonight where heavy rainfall may focus along and S of the front before transitioning further inland tomorrow morning and possibly throughout the day and evening hours. While widespread flood concerns are minimal, there are suggestions from some of our higher resolution shorter range guidance that some locations could pick up 1-3 inch amounts, possibly higher where training storms do occur. There are a lot of outdoor activities underway with the Rodeo in town, so stay weather aware and have alternate plans should our weather turn wet and stormy.

So i looked at the HRRR and i dont like this type of setup at all for Houston. Boundaries that get stuck over the area with PWAT levels between 1.5 and 1.8. Not good. Love my houston mets too but bad things happen often when they DONT predict them.Not exactly sure how it differs from past events but im kinda worried about this evening. Rodeo is in town, plus, i have a flight to catch at 1030 tomorrow. Lets hope the front movs through the area and doesnt hang around.


For you DFW folk and your snow drought. You poooorrrrr things! ;p I still think you have a snow event coming. Things are looking good in early march for you.

Wetter trend for ATX for Sunday

[aggiecutter]

3 day rain total of 10.25".

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/967782210517553152

[1900hurricane]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0046
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1023 AM EST SUN FEB 25 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST TX INTO CENTRAL LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 251520Z - 252120Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING GOING THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE IS SEEN IN THE
GOES-16 7.3/MICRON WV IMAGERY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TX COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NEAR THE COAST AND IS FOSTERING AN
EXPANSION OF CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TX AND INTO PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL LA. MOISTURE IS RATHER WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. THIS AGAIN INCLUDES A
CONTRIBUTION IN THE MID AND HIGH LEVELS FROM DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST
FLOW LIFTING UP FROM THE EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC. INSTABILITY
PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY MODEST OVER SOUTHEAST TX...BUT THERE IS A
POOL OF MUCAPE VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 1000+ J/KG POOLED ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN TAIL OF THE FRONT. GIVEN THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT UP OVER THE FRONT AHEAD OF THE
WAVE...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AND GAINING SOME
ORGANIZATION WITHOUT ISSUE THIS MORNING.

THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR AND THE OVERNIGHT CAM GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SO THE
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST TX INITIALLY
AND THEN BEGIN TO FOCUS MORE INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL LA WITH TIME AS
GREATER MOISTURE AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TRANSPORT OCCURS HERE IN
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT.

ALREADY LOCAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING
RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/HR...AND WITH SOME PERIODIC
REPEATING/TRAINING NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL TOTALS THAT COULD REACH UP INTO THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS THROUGH MIDDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

SOIL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER MOIST OVERALL AND SO THE ADDITIONAL
RAINS TODAY WILL INCREASE THE CONCERN FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND
PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WHERE STRONGER CONVECTIVE
CORES FOCUS AND THEN PERHAPS REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREA.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 32089285 31979213 31639179 31019181 30499239
30239334 29939477 29529593 29369673 29729743
30349762 31039736 31639579 31849445

[1900hurricane]

The streamer showers actually appear to be developing on the leading edge of the surface cold front. This is supported by obs of 75ºF at Angleton and 58ºF at Hobby Airport.

[1900hurricane]

KDPs do appear to be weakening some though. It might just be temporary, but I suspect it may be due to the mid-level impulse beginning to pull away.

[Haris]

Folks from Round Rock to Lakeway??

Training stormms N&W of Austin all morning, ive recorded near 1/2" . Surprise rain again LOL

[bubba hotep]

DFW gets a couple of days to dry out before another round of wet weather moves in with the potential for heavy rain and svr storms. It looks like portions of DFW could pick up another 2-4" of rain before we close out February. DFW is now 4.32" above normal for Feb, 5.05" above for winter, and within striking distance of the Feb record! The airport has just missed blowing out the record with reports in surrounding areas already topping 10". An interesting tidbit, it looks like DFW almost always has an above avg rainfall year when going over 6" in Feb.