Texas Winter 2017-2018

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wxman57
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8821 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:22 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
DonWrk wrote:Man that cold hit hard! Went from sweating to freezing like walking in and out of a door quick!
When is the front is going through DFW?


The front is currently through Denton and extending SW through western Fort Worth. It's moving very slowly southeastward. Might reach DFW by sunset. Hard to tell exactly when it hits DFW. There's about a 30 degree temperature drop along the front.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8822 Postby EnnisTx » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:26 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Jarodm12 wrote:lol bowie is reporting heavy snow and 38 degrees seems unlikely

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... ox2FK6nFMA


Radar has very heavy rain. Hard to verify with no posters there


Just got off the phone with the City Secretary and they just have rain.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8823 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:29 pm

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8824 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:33 pm

I know this has been alluded to already here, but the EWX mentioned how the cold front is much stronger than what guidance picked up on, mentioning how Wichita Falls went from 71 to 36 in an hour, and given the density of the shallow arctic airmass, models now show the front making it all the way to the coast, with continued rain chances in the extended. It would be great if we got a couple inches, at least, out of this. Soils are dry around here.

186
FXUS64 KEWX 202112
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
312 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms have pushed to the eastern half of
the area at the present time with more robust activity currently
located in North Texas. The best low-level jet dynamics are pointing
to this same area and this will likely keep the bulk of the activity
in those places for several more hours. The attention will then turn
to the southwest as another impulse of energy within the subtropical
jet moves into the area. High-res models continue to show this area
of shower and thunderstorms moving northeast into the area this
evening. At the same time a strong arctic cold front will also be
pushing south and this will bring additional activity into our
northern counties in the evening hours as well. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely continue through most of the night and
into Wednesday before downsloping behind the front moves into the
region lessening the coverage.
The threat of heavy rainfall will
likely diminish after the FROPA as well as the access to rich
boundary layer fuel is cut off. With today`s precipitation not
included, additional rainfall amounts through tomorrow will average
1-2 inches for areas north of I-10 with slightly higher amounts for
the Austin area and points to the north. There will be lesser amounts
to the southwest of the I-10 corridor. There could be some isolated
spots reaching 3-4 inches in the higher rainfall areas.
Although we
can`t rule out any small hail with some of the stronger updrafts,
widespread severe weather is not anticipated from the activity.

The expected cold front is much stronger than what most guidance was
able to pick up on and this is not out of the norm for these shallow
arctic airmasses. Earlier this afternoon, the temperature in Wichita
Falls fell from 71 to 36 in an hour. The front is expected to reach
the northern counties before midnight and will move through the
remainder of the area by the mid-morning hours. There were some
thoughts that the front might stall in our area, but with the dense
cold air behind it, that does not seem at all possible and most
guidance members show the front now making it to the coast.
Low
temperatures tonight and highs tomorrow will be dependent on where
the front is in the morning. Lows will likely reach the 40s behind
the front and will be in the 60s ahead of it. Highs tomorrow will
likely also be around the morning hours with temperatures likely
falling through the afternoon or holding steady. Precip chances will
lessen a bit for Wednesday night with low temperatures in the upper
30s to lower 40s expected.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to be high Thursday as
the upper trough remains to the west and southerly flow increases at
850 owing to decent warm-air advection. Highs will likely remain in
the 50s under the cloud cover and remnant effects of the cold air.
The surface front will move back north as a warm front Thursday night
with the higher PoPs across the northern counties on the northern
nose of the front. The next frontal system arrives Saturday bringing
continued 30 to 60 PoPs to the region.
Lower rain chances will
continue Sunday through Tuesday mainly across the eastern CWA. High
temperatures in the extended will be in the 60s/70s with lows in the
50s/60s.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8825 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
DonWrk wrote:Man that cold hit hard! Went from sweating to freezing like walking in and out of a door quick!
When is the front is going through DFW?


The front is currently through Denton and extending SW through western Fort Worth. It's moving very slowly southeastward. Might reach DFW by sunset. Hard to tell exactly when it hits DFW. There's about a 30 degree temperature drop along the front.


Front runs from Sherman, to Denton, to Springtown, to Mineral Wells. Alliance Airport just dropped to 63 so the front is just now reaching there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8826 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:40 pm

Wind just shifted in north FW.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8827 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:43 pm

Notice the thin boundary moving in Ft. Worth, that is the front. It has moved through Ft. Worth Alliance and they are now reporting a N wind.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8828 Postby nathanc1969 » Tue Feb 20, 2018 4:45 pm

Winter Weather advisory now up for the Big Country and Concho Valley between Abilene and San Angelo. 40 degree difference between frontal passage.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8829 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:01 pm

Front now through DT FTW, as the flags out front of office have turned from the north
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8830 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:15 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:Front now through DT FTW, as the flags out front of office have turned from the north


Yep, incredible temp drop in a matter of seconds
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8831 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:23 pm

Ft. Worth Meacham is reporting 48 while Downtown Ft. Worth is reporting 72!
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8832 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:28 pm

Wow.... at 3:37 IMBY it was 71.2. Now? 51.4.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8833 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:31 pm

15 minute drive from bar to home. Went from 72 to 56 on the car thermometer. Go front!
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8834 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:46 pm

Looking back at yesterday's 18Z runs for now vs reality is incredible. Most had the front still in OK at this time. And they kept the freeze line for tomorrow up in Central OK.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8835 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:53 pm

Reminder for all to report precip types to mPING app.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8836 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:56 pm

Ralph's Weather wrote:Looking back at yesterday's 18Z runs for now vs reality is incredible. Most had the front still in OK at this time. And they kept the freeze line for tomorrow up in Central OK.


Are we really surprised though? Made a post over the weekend about -20s in Montana. Surface cold wins this winter. Some models were "only" a few hundred miles off :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8837 Postby Ralph's Weather » Tue Feb 20, 2018 5:57 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Ralph's Weather wrote:Looking back at yesterday's 18Z runs for now vs reality is incredible. Most had the front still in OK at this time. And they kept the freeze line for tomorrow up in Central OK.


Are we really surprised though? Made a post over the weekend about -20s in Montana. Surface cold wins this winter. Some models were "only" a few hundred miles off :lol:

Nope as I posted a couple days ago, I fully expected this.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8838 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Feb 20, 2018 6:02 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Ft. Worth Meacham is reporting 48 while Downtown Ft. Worth is reporting 72!


I work right @ the I-35/30 interchange and left wok at 4:25 and it was cold with a gusty north wind, felt like 30s.... :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8839 Postby opticsguy » Tue Feb 20, 2018 6:09 pm

Is this air mass so shallow that it is being bottled up by the Caprock and the Llano? The panhandle doesn't seem to bet getting the coldest air or strongest winds.
Last edited by opticsguy on Tue Feb 20, 2018 6:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2017-2018

#8840 Postby utweather » Tue Feb 20, 2018 6:14 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Notice the thin boundary moving in Ft. Worth, that is the front. It has moved through Ft. Worth Alliance and they are now reporting a N wind.

[]http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.FWS.N0Q.20180220.2139.024ani.gif[/img]


Love those thin lines with massive shallow temperature differences:-) Was watching it as it was just a pocket or pouch in southwest Oklahoma yesterday, then today just rolls slowly on down south, fun to watch.
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