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South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:More rain to the south and west of DFW. Looks like training has set up.
-SOI
Wish yall would share some rain with us moisture starved folks in central TX. Looks like the main thunderstorm complex might pass south of us tonight...
SA and Austin have had under 1 inch of rain so far this year.
JayDT wrote:Apparently Jim Cantore is on his way to Dallaslol
South Texas Storms wrote:Ntxw wrote:More rain to the south and west of DFW. Looks like training has set up.
-SOI
Wish yall would share some rain with us moisture starved folks in central TX. Looks like the main thunderstorm complex might pass south of us tonight...
SA and Austin have had under 1 inch of rain so far this year.
gboudx wrote:JayDT wrote:Apparently Jim Cantore is on his way to Dallas
Why would he come here for a cold rain?
Cerlin wrote:My flight is finally leaving San Antonio. Hopefully we’ll make it in this time!
opticsguy wrote:Is this air mass so shallow that it is being bottled up by the Caprock and the Llano? The panhandle doesn't seem to bet getting the coldest air or strongest winds.
Cerlin wrote:My flight is finally leaving San Antonio. Hopefully we’ll make it in this time!
utweather wrote:weatherdude1108 wrote:I know this has been alluded to already here, but the EWX mentioned how the cold front is much stronger than what guidance picked up on, mentioning how Wichita Falls went from 71 to 36 in an hour, and given the density of the shallow arctic airmass, models now show the front making it all the way to the coast, with continued rain chances in the extended. It would be great if we got a couple inches, at least, out of this. Soils are dry around here.
186
FXUS64 KEWX 202112
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
312 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms have pushed to the eastern half of
the area at the present time with more robust activity currently
located in North Texas. The best low-level jet dynamics are pointing
to this same area and this will likely keep the bulk of the activity
in those places for several more hours. The attention will then turn
to the southwest as another impulse of energy within the subtropical
jet moves into the area. High-res models continue to show this area
of shower and thunderstorms moving northeast into the area this
evening. At the same time a strong arctic cold front will also be
pushing south and this will bring additional activity into our
northern counties in the evening hours as well. Showers and
thunderstorms will likely continue through most of the night and
into Wednesday before downsloping behind the front moves into the
region lessening the coverage. The threat of heavy rainfall will
likely diminish after the FROPA as well as the access to rich
boundary layer fuel is cut off. With today`s precipitation not
included, additional rainfall amounts through tomorrow will average
1-2 inches for areas north of I-10 with slightly higher amounts for
the Austin area and points to the north. There will be lesser amounts
to the southwest of the I-10 corridor. There could be some isolated
spots reaching 3-4 inches in the higher rainfall areas. Although we
can`t rule out any small hail with some of the stronger updrafts,
widespread severe weather is not anticipated from the activity.
The expected cold front is much stronger than what most guidance was
able to pick up on and this is not out of the norm for these shallow
arctic airmasses. Earlier this afternoon, the temperature in Wichita
Falls fell from 71 to 36 in an hour. The front is expected to reach
the northern counties before midnight and will move through the
remainder of the area by the mid-morning hours. There were some
thoughts that the front might stall in our area, but with the dense
cold air behind it, that does not seem at all possible and most
guidance members show the front now making it to the coast. Low
temperatures tonight and highs tomorrow will be dependent on where
the front is in the morning. Lows will likely reach the 40s behind
the front and will be in the 60s ahead of it. Highs tomorrow will
likely also be around the morning hours with temperatures likely
falling through the afternoon or holding steady. Precip chances will
lessen a bit for Wednesday night with low temperatures in the upper
30s to lower 40s expected.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue to be high Thursday as
the upper trough remains to the west and southerly flow increases at
850 owing to decent warm-air advection. Highs will likely remain in
the 50s under the cloud cover and remnant effects of the cold air.
The surface front will move back north as a warm front Thursday night
with the higher PoPs across the northern counties on the northern
nose of the front. The next frontal system arrives Saturday bringing
continued 30 to 60 PoPs to the region. Lower rain chances will
continue Sunday through Tuesday mainly across the eastern CWA. High
temperatures in the extended will be in the 60s/70s with lows in the
50s/60s.
I wonder if the Northwest Hill Country could be flirting with some wintry precip? Cold air is steadily flowing downstream nothing stopping it. (Faster south than east) Then depending on what this impulse does. Wind flow or cloud movement is almost in a parallel but opposite direction out there, north at the surface, south just above it.
OKMet83 wrote:Just an FYI for any followers... I know Northern TX might just get a glancing blow tomorrow but I'm afraid we will see a significant ice storm unfold tonight through late Tom across portions of Central/Wrn into SRN Oklahoma... Ice storm Warnings might be needed... I would highly suggest making alternate travel plans until Thu PM...
weatherdude1108 wrote:Huge blowup of storms in the valley around MCALLEN and points north, moving northwardish! Not sure what to make of it(?).
bubba hotep wrote:DFW zoom from WxBell
bubba hotep wrote:DFW zoom from WxBell
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