Texas Winter 2017-2018

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Let's see ...

Cross-polar flow: check

Cold trough over the middle of the CONUS: check

Upper level energy to the southwest of Texas: check

What's not to like here?!

https://s17.postimg.org/4obv2b1vz/Model_viewer_-_Mozilla_Firefox_2018-01-21_10.05.55.png

Winter lovers pornography

[Ntxw]

Still long range language but...

Curious to see what some ENS members may show cold wise this week

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Holy moly. Last couple runs on GFS are interesting.

I've been stepping out there and saying to my friends that here in SE TX, we will have one more winter weather event. First we need the cold....

[EnnisTx]

Won’t be surprised to see a tornado watch soon from the metroplex into East Texas.

[gboudx]

Pouring here in Rockwall, with some thunder too. Made the DirecTV feed go out.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Areas affected...northeast Texas...eastern Oklahoma through western
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 211913Z - 212115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by 21Z across
northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma and subsequently increase in
coverage and intensity. Supercells and bowing line segments with
damaging wind and a few tornadoes should be the primary threats. A
tornado watch will probably be needed before 21Z.

DISCUSSION...This afternoon a dryline extends from northeast KS
through west-central OK to north-central and southwest TX. Pacific
front will merge with the dryline later this afternoon, and this
boundary will continue through the southern Plains this evening as a
surface low consolidates over eastern KS in association with a
progressive shortwave trough. Modifying continental-polar air with
low 60s F dewpoints has advected through the warm sector beneath
modest lapse rates where objective analysis shows a corridor of
500-800 J/KG MLCAPE from central and northeast TX into southeast OK.
WV imagery indicates mid-upper level moistening and clouds resulting
from a band of deeper forcing for ascent moving through eastern OK
and northeast TX, and scattered showers are already developing over
northeast TX in association with this process. RAP soundings
indicate a capping inversion still in place around 750 mb, but
ascent in the 850-500 mb layer layer will eventually erode the
inversion, contributing to thunderstorm development by 20-21Z.
Vertical wind shear will increase as the low-level jet strengthens
within exit region of the approaching mid-upper jet with large 0-1
km hodographs and effective-bulk shear exceeding 40 kt. This
environment should support organized storms including a few discrete
supercells and bowing line segments as storms intensify later this
afternoon and evening.

..Dial/Grams.. 01/21/2018

[gboudx]

Pea-sized hail too. My neighbors weather station shows 0.97" so far.

[cycloneye]

Tornado Watch issued

[aggiecutter]

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
305 PM CST SUN JAN 21 2018

TORNADO WATCH 1 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

TXC001-037-063-067-073-119-147-159-161-183-203-213-223-231-257-
277-315-343-349-365-379-387-401-423-449-459-467-499-220500-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0001.180121T2105Z-180122T0500Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON BOWIE CAMP
CASS CHEROKEE DELTA
FANNIN FRANKLIN FREESTONE
GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
NAVARRO PANOLA RAINS
RED RIVER RUSK SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD
$$

[bubba hotep]

First svr warned cell is outside the watch box, have to watch that broken line of cells for spin ups as they move across the metroplex.

[bubba hotep]

Line is coming together pretty quickly, this should give the airport a nice downpour.

[gpsnowman]

Nice line heading this way. I am a little concerned though, my wife is on a plane near Austin and I just noticed on Flightaware that her plane has turned northwest away from the line of storms. Delayed soon I am sure. The flight path was directly through the line.
Edit: Her flight was diverted to Austin.

[EnnisTx]

First svr warned cell is outside the watch box, have to watch that broken line of cells for spin ups as they move across the metroplex.

Yep, getting dark here. First time I've heard thunder in a good while!

[EnnisTx]

Pouring down rain here!

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Nice line heading this way. I am a little concerned though, my wife is on a plane near Austin and I just noticed on Flightaware that her plane has turned northwest away from the line of storms. Delayed soon I am sure. The flight path was directly through the line.
Edit: Her flight was diverted to Austin.

There are much worse airports to get diverted to than Austin.

She’ll be fine. Have her get a bbq plate at Salt Lick.

[EnnisTx]

Pouring down rain here!

Wow! Heavy rain with the gutters overflowing, first time I've seen that here. A quick 1.10" wind driven downpour and it's not done yet, starting to pick up again.

[Ralph's Weather]

Tornado warning for Lamar Co.

[EnnisTx]

First tornado warning Northeast of Paris. Lamar County.

[gpsnowman]

:uarrow: Nice line heading this way. I am a little concerned though, my wife is on a plane near Austin and I just noticed on Flightaware that her plane has turned northwest away from the line of storms. Delayed soon I am sure. The flight path was directly through the line.
Edit: Her flight was diverted to Austin.

There are much worse airports to get diverted to than Austin.

She’ll be fine. Have her get a bbq plate at Salt Lick.

Thanks Porta. She landed and called me from the runway. They are thinking about an hour before taking off again. At least that is the plan now.

[gpsnowman]

Heavy rain here with crazy hail!!!!!