Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

3 inches of freezing rain near Austin

[Ntxw]

Storm is sitting over Baja pumping moisture ahead of it. Meanwhile -EPO ridge continues as an Arctic high is dropping into NW Canada

[srainhoutx]

Careful with the GFS solution. It suggests the 850mb front stalls in the Brazos Valley near College Station/Lake Summerville. My experience is that dense shallow cold air drains right across the Balconies Escarpment all the way to the Gulf.

[South Texas Storms]

Storm is sitting over Baja pumping moisture ahead of it. Meanwhile -EPO ridge continues as an Arctic high is dropping into NW Canada

Looks like another round of frozen precip is about to begin on Christmas Day and the storm begins to lift northeast towards TX.

[Ntxw]

Storm is sitting over Baja pumping moisture ahead of it. Meanwhile -EPO ridge continues as an Arctic high is dropping into NW Canada

Looks like another round of frozen precip is about to begin on Christmas Day and the storm begins to lift northeast towards TX.

Yeah the storm is starting to lift northeast as more cold air is about to spill south. While areas that had ice still hovers near freezing.

[South Texas Storms]

Storm is sitting over Baja pumping moisture ahead of it. Meanwhile -EPO ridge continues as an Arctic high is dropping into NW Canada

Looks like another round of frozen precip is about to begin on Christmas Day and the storm begins to lift northeast towards TX.

Yeah the storm is starting to lift northeast as more cold air is about to spill south. While areas that had ice still hovers near freezing.

These model runs are really reminding me of Harvey. They are showing some unreal scenarios with several inches of ice accumulation possible across the state. Just unbelievable.

[Ntxw]

I don't think I've ever seen such an extreme numerical prediction for our area qpf+temp wise in winter especially from the Euro and GFS back to back.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Verbatim from the 18z GFS an area from Austin to Northeast Texas would be entombed in ice, quite a bad run for the I-35 corridor of a crippling ice storm.

I'm telling you... It's Lucy's revenge. She's screaming... "Portastorm!" " You wanted winter precip..... Here you go pal!"

[Cpv17]

I bet temps will be 5 to 10 degrees colder than what the GFS is showing now and I bet there will be more snow than what it’s showing now too.

[Brent]

I bet temps will be 5 to 10 degrees colder than what the GFS is showing now and I bet there will be more snow than what it’s showing now too.

I have a hunch this is true and for everyone's sake here lets hope so

[gboudx]

I'm not looking at the models ya'll are, but I have a question. If the models are showing so much rain, then what's the possibility of the rain dragging down the warm air, and lessening the ice accumulations at the surface? I know this may depend on how high the warm layer is, and how deep. I guess it's possible the surface temps may be cold enough where this doesn't matter as well.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Careful with the GFS solution. It suggests the 850mb front stalls in the Brazos Valley near College Station/Lake Summerville. My experience is that dense shallow cold air drains right across the Balconies Escarpment all the way to the Gulf.

Would you take a stab at thinking freezing temps would make it down as far south as the RGV with such an airmass?

[Ntxw]

I'm not looking at the models ya'll are, but I have a question. If the models are showing so much rain, then what's the possibility of the rain dragging down the warm air, and lessening the ice accumulations at the surface? I know this may depend on how high the warm layer is, and how deep. I guess it's possible the surface temps may be cold enough where this doesn't matter as well.

This is a different set up. Have warm air come down is when you start cold and then warm air rides over it. This case warm aloft starting and arctic air is bleeding in gradually getting colder and colder at the surface. Once you get cold enough and switch to ice, game over. Euro says it bleeds in faster and is snow, while GFS cools the top layer much slower.

[Theepicman116]

Word must have gotten out about the chance for snow/sleet/freezing rain, we have 115 guests watching us.

[Cpv17]

1064 High in NW Canada at hour 336 on GFS! Holy cow lol

[Ntxw]

1064 High in NW Canada at hour 336 on GFS! Holy cow lol

Gets to 1065mb! But that is LaLaLand beyond truncation. An outbreak for another holiday (New Year)

[South Texas Storms]

Word must have gotten out about the chance for snow/sleet/freezing rain, we have 115 guests watching us.

Guests, please feel free to become a member and join the discussion! We don't bite

[Cpv17]

1064 High in NW Canada at hour 336 on GFS! Holy cow lol

Gets to 1065mb! But that is LaLaLand beyond truncation.

Right? Still fun to look at though.

[Ntxw]

Word must have gotten out about the chance for snow/sleet/freezing rain, we have 115 guests watching us.

0z run will have a lot of viewers once everyone gets off work.

[Cpv17]

It’s crazy how we’re almost at 100 pages and winter hasn’t even officially started yet.