Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

Through wishful thinking and searching around online for hints to winter, I keep coming across early predictions of ENSO neutral conditions. Typically what does this do for our winter down here? A couple sources said warm and dry, while others have said cool and dry.

It could be either, neutral winters are very volatile and harder to forecast than El Nino or La Nina

[CaptinCrunch]

as of July 16th 2017

Some models predict the onset of El Niño (3-month average Niño-3.4 index at or greater than
0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere summer (Fig. 6). However, more than half of the models favor
ENSO-neutral through the remainder of 2017. These predictions, along with the near-average atmospheric
conditions over the Pacific, lead forecasters to favor ENSO-neutral into the winter (~50 to 55% chance).
However, chances for El Niño remain elevated (~35-45%) relative to the long-term average. In summary,
ENSO-neutral is favored (~50 to 55% chance) into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18 (click
CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions 31st of July 2017

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

[Yukon Cornelius]

What years had memorable ENSO neutral winters?

[Ntxw]

What years had memorable ENSO neutral winters?

Some quick ones that come to mind 1961-1962, 1962-1963, 1978-1979, 1989-1990, 1993-1994

1983-1984 is now a neutral year in the new ONI index subset, previously it was a weak La Nina

The most recent cold neutral winter was 2013-2014. The common theme in these winters is -EPO and warm SSTs in the gulf of Alaska

[Ntxw]

Not me ... I want another blowtorch winter. I don't want to see the temperature dip below 50 degrees in Austin.

I'm still thinking very cold and very icy across Texas. That last (lack of) winter was brutal. Bring on the cold!

I see bipolar wxman57 has made a return..

[Yukon Cornelius]

What years had memorable ENSO neutral winters?

Some quick ones that come to mind 1961-1962, 1962-1963, 1978-1979, 1989-1990, 1993-1994

1983-1984 is now a neutral year in the new ONI index subset, previously it was a weak La Nina

The most recent cold neutral winter was 2013-2014. The common theme in these winters is -EPO and warm SSTs in the gulf of Alaska

Ill take 2013-2014! If I remember right, we had numerous cold shots and also a few rounds of frozen precip.

[Tammie]

Interesting write-up from Stephen Strum of WTD about the upcoming winter.
https://blog.wdtinc.com/will-this-augus ... e=facebook

[TeamPlayersBlue]

What years had memorable ENSO neutral winters?

Some quick ones that come to mind 1961-1962, 1962-1963, 1978-1979, 1989-1990, 1993-1994

1983-1984 is now a neutral year in the new ONI index subset, previously it was a weak La Nina

The most recent cold neutral winter was 2013-2014. The common theme in these winters is -EPO and warm SSTs in the gulf of Alaska

Ill take 2013-2014! If I remember right, we had numerous cold shots and also a few rounds of frozen precip.

That year was a dream for cold. The moisture was the issue. I think there were 6 serious arctic blasts that year.We need quite a warm pool in the GOA though. Key is a cool pool in the 1+2 imo though. Help pull the trough down just a bit deeper.

[weathaguyry]

Hopefully the wish-casted deep troughs move east into the Atlantic and trigger some nice Nor-Easters that dump some good snow on us!

[Texas Snowman]

@KATVToddYak -- Just read the preliminary winter forecast from @BigJoeBastardi at @weatherbell . Very interesting!

@BigJoeBastardi -- agreed, it is an interesting winter , ECMWF positions of blocking ridge ups ante. Has an early look of 13-14

[Yukon Cornelius]

From the Old Farmer's Almanac...
Annual Weather Summary: November 2017 to October 2018


Winter will be colder than normal, with above-normal precipitation. The coldest periods will be from late November into early December, from late December into early January, and in early February. Snowfall will be near to above normal, with the snowiest periods in late December and early to mid-February. April and May will be cooler and rainier than normal. Summer will be cooler and rainier than normal, with the hottest periods in mid-July and mid-August. Expect a hurricane threat in late August. September and October will be warmer and rainier than normal. Watch for a tropical storm threat in early September.

[Portastorm]

@KATVToddYak -- Just read the preliminary winter forecast from @BigJoeBastardi at @weatherbell . Very interesting!

@BigJoeBastardi -- agreed, it is an interesting winter , ECMWF positions of blocking ridge ups ante. Has an early look of 13-14

Don't get too excited. JB and WeatherBell's initial call on this coming winter is drier and warmer than normal for much of Texas. In other words ... same ol' stuff.

[wxman57]

Still looking very cold and icy, to me.

[South Texas Storms]

Still looking very cold and icy, to me.

I can't wait for the upcoming snowy winter this year! Only a few months away

[Brent]

Still looking very cold and icy, to me.

I better stock up on my snow shovels, ice scrapers, and gloves before this gets out to the public...

[Tireman4]

Still looking very cold and icy, to me.

Yeah Yeah. I want to believe you. I really do. With your bipolar Avatar, the taunting you have done over the past upteen years and the just out and out laughing at us...can we believe you? LOL

[Portastorm]

Still looking very cold and icy, to me.

Yeah Yeah. I want to believe you. I really do. With your bipolar Avatar, the taunting you have done over the past upteen years and the just out and out laughing at us...can we believe you? LOL

I'm with you, Tireman. I think it's a trap. He's just setting us up like Lucy and Charlie Brown. Dang it, I ain't trying to kick THAT football!

[Texas Snowman]

@KATVToddYak -- Just read the preliminary winter forecast from @BigJoeBastardi at @weatherbell . Very interesting!

@BigJoeBastardi -- agreed, it is an interesting winter , ECMWF positions of blocking ridge ups ante. Has an early look of 13-14

Don't get too excited. JB and WeatherBell's initial call on this coming winter is drier and warmer than normal for much of Texas. In other words ... same ol' stuff.

Well, early December 2013 wasn't warmer and drier than normal up here in the Red River Valley, that's for sure. And there was plenty more winter weather too.

We had the massive Dec. 5-6, 2013 sleet storm that dumped five inches of ice here in Denison. Didn't get above freezing for several days, TxDOT had to bring road graders (with plow blades) in to clear the highway, and our kids missed five days of school with a Saturday and Sunday thrown into the middle of that.

Had some more cold weather towards the end of December and then a couple of other winter events too. Cold and minor snow/sleet events happened on 2/2/14 and 2/6/2014.

And then we had a doozy of a sleet storm and arctic front in early March with thundersleet and a temp of 22 degrees at 2:30 p.m. on 3/2/14. Kids missed some school with that one too.

So an early look of the winter of 2013-2014 would get me at least a little bit excited!

[Brent]

If we can't have 09-10 I'll gladly take 13-14

[Ntxw]

2013-2014 might be a stretch but who knows! Solar was very high and that year in general wasn't all that hot globally. State of the QBO and solar cycle puts 2013-2014 more in line with something like 1993-1994. This year to me is an enigma, I haven't quite yet found a good starting place for analogs...