Texas Winter 2017-2018

[TheProfessor]

the guy on oklahoma weather network is calling for a blizzard event for west texas into the oklahoma panhandle at the end of the month with the rest of the state getting rain. Of course the snow line stops just west of wichita falls.

I wouldn't worry about where a rain/snow line is for a storm 10+ days out. Or call for a blizzard.

[Tireman4]

Sad day that it is the (alter ego heater miser) snow miser taking charge for cold mongers . When its not cold and warm winter we complain it never gets cold. When it gets cold we complain we want warmth..never satisfy you Texans!

Ntxw, I suggest we put on our “moderator hats” and give some friendly reminders to our sudden turncoat winter weather fans!

And is that Wxman57 the “Heat Miser”? Or Wxman57 the “Heater Miser?”

Personally, I like this year’s new and improved version of the “Heater Miser”!

You realize that more we taunt him, the more he will get us back in the Summer. He has already alluded to this in the Fall 2017 thread. Sigh.

[TheProfessor]

Sad day that it is the (alter ego heater miser) snow miser taking charge for cold mongers . When its not cold and warm winter we complain it never gets cold. When it gets cold we complain we want warmth..never satisfy you Texans!

Ntxw, I suggest we put on our “moderator hats” and give some friendly reminders to our sudden turncoat winter weather fans!

And is that Wxman57 the “Heat Miser”? Or Wxman57 the “Heater Miser?”

Personally, I like this year’s new and improved version of the “Heater Miser”!

You realize that more we taunt him, the more he will get us back in the Summer. He has already alluded to this in the Fall 2017 thread. Sigh.

I say we all buy Wxman57 some flowers and chocolates. I don't want a death ridge this Summer.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Ntxw, I suggest we put on our “moderator hats” and give some friendly reminders to our sudden turncoat winter weather fans!

And is that Wxman57 the “Heat Miser”? Or Wxman57 the “Heater Miser?”

Personally, I like this year’s new and improved version of the “Heater Miser”!

You realize that more we taunt him, the more he will get us back in the Summer. He has already alluded to this in the Fall 2017 thread. Sigh.

I say we all buy Wxman57 some flowers and chocolates. I don't want a death ridge this Summer.

I suspect Wxman57 is sitting back and grinning like a Cheshire Cat and saying something like this......

[Yukon Cornelius]

the guy on oklahoma weather network is calling for a blizzard event for west texas into the oklahoma panhandle at the end of the month with the rest of the state getting rain. Of course the snow line stops just west of wichita falls.

Way to far out for any specifics, however keep in mind the Xmas eve 2009 blizzard and the forecast and snowfall maps leading up to it and even the day before. It originally kept everytging just west.

[bubba hotep]

Michael Ventrice just posted this on Twitter. What does it mean?
"Red flag raised on medium range model guidance with regards to how they are handling what looks to be a massive anticyclonic wave break over the North Pacific across the Arctic Circle"
"I'm expecting increased volatility in both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic models as they try to resolve this beast of a Blocking High"

That will project more onto the WPO which can drive cold for us but not like the EPO. The setup will favor some wetter weather over Texas but not so sure about cold. As is typical, any big break like that will stump the models but once they pin it down the blocking can help stabilize the models. In the longer range, it looks like the block will break down and retrograde helping to excite the Pacific jet. If that happens, then that jet streak could be the trigger that sets off the next round of wave breaking into a big WCAN ridge (repeat of this current cold period) but maybe with a more favorable MJO.

[Texas Snowman]

Forecasted low was 19, its currently 13 at the house. Hopefully the cooler than forecasted trend continues into this weekend and we don't actually see 70 degrees.

Love the new signature... I will join in.

I was toasty playing football in the snow the other day with my 5 year old. Had on the Sitka gear head to toe.

Yes! Team Never Summer. If you ever need new gear check out KUIU. Its made by the same guy the started Sitka before he sold it. Same, sometimes even better quality and half the price.

Sitka Gear, KUIU, SmartWool - heck, I say we take up a collection and buy some for Portastorm. Maybe we can keep him from drifting over to the winter weather darkside.

Maybe we should get some for Wxman57 too. If we can keep him warm and toasty in the wintertime, maybe his cold loving alter ego (Heater Miser) will stick around.

[Texas Snowman]

Sad day that it is the (alter ego heater miser) snow miser taking charge for cold mongers . When its not cold and warm winter we complain it never gets cold. When it gets cold we complain we want warmth..never satisfy you Texans!

Ntxw, I suggest we put on our “moderator hats” and give some friendly reminders to our sudden turncoat winter weather fans!

And is that Wxman57 the “Heat Miser”? Or Wxman57 the “Heater Miser?”

Personally, I like this year’s new and improved version of the “Heater Miser”!

You realize that more we taunt him, the more he will get us back in the Summer. He has already alluded to this in the Fall 2017 thread. Sigh.

Who’s taunting? I like his wintertime alter ego Heater Miser!

He delivered the goods this winter for Portastorm and you guys down in SE Texas. Heck, he even delivered the goods to Corpus and South Texas too!

As long as he’ll remain friendly in the wintertime, I can let him have some reasonable heat in the summer months. You know, for a week or so!

[wxman57]

As long as he’ll remain friendly in the wintertime, I can let him have some reasonable heat in the summer months. You know, for a week or so!

Thank you, Texas Snowman. Reasonable heat sounds good for about a week, before summer begins, that is.

[dhweather]

NOAA is adding 2.8 petaflops (quadrillion floating point operations per second) of compute power this Spring, increasing the organizations computational power to 8.4 petaflops. For comparison's sake, in 2015, NOAA was running a peak of 0.77 petaflops. The GFS is getting a significant upgrade as well in 2019. The new 2.8 petaflops of supercomputing power will run the new GFS code during the tropical season this year, in a research mode.

Read more here: http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa- ... er-upgrade

[orangeblood]

Beginning signs of an EPO dive ??? If so, could be quite the Arctic Outbreak towards the 2nd week in Feb, especially considering the -40 to -50 deg F below average anomalies showing up in Alaska over the next couple of weeks

[Yukon Cornelius]

Love the new signature... I will join in.

I was toasty playing football in the snow the other day with my 5 year old. Had on the Sitka gear head to toe.

Yes! Team Never Summer. If you ever need new gear check out KUIU. Its made by the same guy the started Sitka before he sold it. Same, sometimes even better quality and half the price.

Sitka Gear, KUIU, SmartWool - heck, I say we take up a collection and buy some for Portastorm. Maybe we can keep him from drifting over to the winter weather darkside.

Maybe we should get some for Wxman57 too. If we can keep him warm and toasty in the wintertime, maybe his cold loving alter ego (Heater Miser) will stick around.

Team Never Summer approves!

[Ntxw]

Beginning signs of an EPO dive ??? If so, could be quite the Arctic Outbreak towards the 2nd week in Feb, especially considering the -40 to -50 deg F below average anomalies showing up in Alaska over the next couple of weeks

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_63.png

End of 12z Euro is pointing in that direction.

-PNA forecast has been weakening. Bering ridge may go into the arctic and dump south over NA again. Winter persistent pattern

[TheProfessor]

I'd keep an eye on the dates between Janaury 25th-30th. That date has been highlighted by the Bering Sear Rule(I don't know what you guys think about organic forecasting) The latest Euro run has an EGL cutter while the CMC has a miller B system. Could be one of those classic central U.S storms where Winter storm warnings form a long row from North Texas to Indiana. Or it could be another big east coast storm. If there's going to be a storm that seems like a safe bet.

[Brent]

Euro tries to be interesting in that timeframe

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has a hard freeze for DFW on the 28th and a very light freeze down here in Houston on that date. Just a little Canadian air. Nothing like this week (so far). No post-frontal precip indicated. GFS moves a Pacific front through Texas on the 27th, with low 40s DFW and mid 40s Houston on the 28th.

[Ntxw]

Those models have been running 5-10F too high a week out when depicting cold air movement this winter . A week+ out they also have been poor with source region!

[Brent]

I did say TRY to be interesting... its the only thing possibly wintry worth talking about in forecasting range

[ThunderSleetDreams]

If we can get a storm to do to us, what the last storm did to North Carolina, this Winter Thread will go north of 500 pages.

[Brent]

If we can get a storm to do to us, what the last storm did to North Carolina, this Winter Thread will go north of 500 pages.

here's hoping... its been a bitter last month or so for me.