Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ntxw]

This has thunder and lightning with it this morning

[gpsnowman]

Yep, just drove to work in some heavy rain with lightning all around. Very nice to see.

[Ntxw]

HRRR and NAM brings the rain from the west this afternoon/evening and stalls it over the metroplex

Much more rain coming

[bubba hotep]

No "High" but a westward shift overall.

[orangeblood]

HRRR and NAM brings the rain from the west this afternoon/evening and stalls it over the metroplex

Much more rain coming

NAM coming in much colder as well but something is seriously flawed with its frozen precip algorithm

[Ntxw]

Temps at DFW tomorrow should be mid to upper 30s. Upper profile too warm for snow, but in heavier rain bands I wouldn't be surprised if we saw sleet or hail reports mixed in. West of Ft Worth will be closer to freezing

[bubba hotep]

ARW2 is also colder and it has done well with winter wx this year. I'm not sure that the source air is cold enough to support a big bust at the surface levels and the column is way warm. Worst case scenario would probably be 31-32 with rain that is too warm to freeze.

[PDinKS]

Ok, Texas peeps: who sent the ice here? (Chanute, Ks) We are getting "thunder ice", it is raining pretty vigorously, and it is freezing on trees and raised surfaces. We don't even have an advisory up here yet, and I believe we have already hit our high for the day. My poor trees. Not sure how much precip we have gotten here yet, I am heading out to check my co-op rain gauge momentarily. Further north of here it is going to be a disaster. If anyone has any insight on what we may expect here today, I would appreciate it... All forecasts seen to have underplayed what I see happening at this point.

[Brent]

ARW2 is also colder and it has done well with winter wx this year. I'm not sure that the source air is cold enough to support a big bust at the surface levels and the column is way warm. Worst case scenario would probably be 31-32 with rain that is too warm to freeze.

I'm coming back to Dallas today... That would be something

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Man, you guys could potentially have a really nice surprise.

[Ntxw]

Big line coming into Tarrant and Denton counties. Bowing out, might be some strong winds with it

[bubba hotep]

Big line coming into Tarrant and Denton counties. Bowing out, might be some strong winds with it

[srainhoutx]

Reports of some homes damaged in DeSoto

[bubba hotep]

12z 3k NAM is a wild run with 8 - 10" of rain for DFW and a serious ice storm just to the NW with a mix of freezing rain and sleet.

[rwfromkansas]

Yikes, lots of rain on NAM.

[Ralph's Weather]

12z 3k NAM is a wild run with 8 - 10" of rain for DFW and a serious ice storm just to the NW with a mix of freezing rain and sleet.

Tomorrow is looking similar, but with much more moisture to what we had around here on 2/11. We had upper 20s at the surface with 850mb temps near 50. Areas around here got freezing rain, sleet and somehow snow along with thunder. The freeze line was supposed to stay west of Highway 69 but it pushed all the way through E TX as surface cold likes to do. NW of DFW proper could be bad tomorrow, DFW proper could see ice on bridges and who knows how far east minor icing will inch.

[Tejas89]

Another record hi low at DFW this morning.

[CaptinCrunch]

12z 3k NAM is a wild run with 8 - 10" of rain for DFW and a serious ice storm just to the NW with a mix of freezing rain and sleet.

These models have shown frz precip all Winter for NTX, only to completely drop it do to the "REAL" fact of no moisture to work with. Now we have ample amounts of moisture, but the source of the cold isn't all that impressive, but it only takes 32 degrees to get the party started. Models all winter have underestimated the surface cold and temps ran a few degrees lower than modeled, but with all this moisture I don't think it can get cold enough for any major problems in the DFW area, but areas to the N and NW could very well see a coating of ice or sleet.

Either way it will be fireplace weather again tomorrow after the warmer than normal weekend.

Real quick, the last 6 days have erased the first half of the colder than avg month to a new Monthly mean temp of +1.8
Come on February, you can recover....lol

[Ntxw]

Another record hi low at DFW this morning.

When this happens in winter, you know heavy rain is coming

[bubba hotep]

Temps across NW Oklahoma are running a good bit colder than short range guidance, so that might be something to keep an eye on as the cold pushes south.